Battle for Prez reveals fault-lines in UPA coalition

The Battle for President took a twist yesterday after Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee and Mulayam Singh Yadav of the Samajwadi Party announced that their top picks are APJ Abdul Kalam, Somnath Chatterjee, and Manmohan Singh.

The big shock came when current Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s name was announced, but Mamata Banerjee today came out and said her first choice is Kalam Yogendra Yadav, Sunanda K Data-Ray, N Ram from Chennai and Rajdeep Sardesai join CNBC-TV18's Shereen Bhan to discuss the implications of what’s happened over the last 48 hours and, more importantly, what can be expected going forward. Below is an edited transcript of their interview. Also watch the accompanying videos. Q: What do you make of Mamata Banerjee saying that she doesn’t want to break up the UPA and that the Congress should simply request her to leave, if they want that? Sardesai: This is a chess board and bishop has just moved towards another rook - I think that’s the way you got to see it. Everyone is playing a game of nerves and brinkmanship. I think Mamata is pushing the Congress and the UPA to the edge, to the point where they tell her enough is enough and ask leave. Q: Even if it is 14 hours too late, has the Congress grown a spine, can they fight this out? Sardesai: I think the Congress is determined. Any government will want its presidential nominee elected. The last thing that you would want is your presidential nominees to be rejected or defeated in an election. Q: Which is the threat that Mamata Banerjee has held out in the press conference she just had? Sardesai: Mamata Banerjee has made it clear that Kalam is the candidate of her and Mulayam Singh. I think they are doing that to test the resolve of the Congress and also perhaps create a crisis situation which they believe will unravel the entire UPA-II experiment. The two of them are looking for a general election sooner rather than later. The more I hear them, the more I am convinced that they are working towards that single agenda. It's no more kaun banega Rashtrapati but now about who will occupy 7 Race Course Road after the next Lok Sabha election. Q: Is a mid-term election an inevitability? Yadav: It’s too early to conclude that. What appeared to be a routine presidential election, the routine number game which gets played has suddenly transformed. It is now about the credibility of the PM, about the future of the ruling coalition and about the future of this Lok Sabha. It’s absolutely true that Mulayam Singh and Mamata Banerjee are two players who can look forward to the Lok Sabha election and would stand to gain. But, let’s not forget that while they stand together, they have spoken in somewhat different tones and that different in tonality could become crucial in the next 24 hours or so. Q: There was a difference in tone especially with regards to the Samajwadi Party. Samajwadi Party softened to the Congress in the morning, but towards the evening, it seems to be a different story altogether. Is the Samajwadi Party still unsure of the volatility of Mamata Banerjee itself? Yadav: That's why we shouldn’t conclude too soon that this is a solid alliance which has come into being. I think much would depend on the meeting that Mulayam Singh Yadav may have with Sonia Gandhi. I don’t know if it has happened yet. Much would depend on what happens in the disproportionate asset case pending against Mulayam Singh Yadav. There's all kinds of intriguing in Delhi right now and let’s not forget that there are at least 100 MPs in this Lok Sabha, beside the Congress, the Left, the DMK and the BSP. These parties will certainly not want early Lok Sabha elections. So let's not conclude too soon of early Lok Sabha elections. But it has become clear that what appears to be an ordinary, ho-hum election has snowballed into bigger struggle. The crisis of legitimacy that this government faced for the last couple of years manifested in lack of imagination, poor governance and general paralysis has now been linked to a crisis of coalition management and sheer crisis of numbers on the floor of the House. So the game has become far more intense than before. Q: What do you think will be Mamata's next move? Ray: It should be some cause for gratification for some people that at last Kolkata is calling the shots in national politics. But it's a very distressing turn of events and I am surprised that no one spares a thought for the loss, the erosion of the dignity and decorum of the head of state. No one cares what the president is. He has become a pawn. Mamata has always been a street fighter. She knows that she can't become the Prime Minister yet, but there is no politician, no state chief minister who hasn't set his or her sights at the highest level. May be she is looking to head a coalition of non-Congress people and eventually some people in the Congress. But, I don't think that's a short-term prospect. At the moment and all along this has been her character and tendency to cause utmost confusion, to throw everyone into plunge, confusion, to throw out threats blindly & blankly and dare people to call her bluff. Q: Let's try and understand the predicament of Pranab Mukherjee. Till this morning. the Congress didn’t even come out and say that was the top contender. It was left to Mamata Banerjee to announce that Sonia Gandhi’s first choice was Pranab Mukherjee. The man has been asked to work the phones today and that’s apparently what he spent his day doing. But the predicament of Pranab Mukherjee is that if he were to be left out of this race eventually, what will he do? Ram: He will continue to do what he does best- manage the party crisis, head the finance minister or whatever else he is ordered to. I don’t think that that’s a huge issue for Pranab. Q: Will he stay on as finance minister? Ram: Yes, because he is not directly implicated in anything and it’s all about him. Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee went out and presumably disclosed without authorisation the mind of Sonia Gandhi which was discussed and that’s what the Congress general secretary indicated and I believe that. But what a great fun it is! No soap opera can beat this political theatre, can it? Q: On the credibility of both the Prime Minister and the government. The Prime Minster is going to be on a flight to the G20 in the next 24 hours. He is not wanted by his allies or even sections of his own party… Ram: The predicament of the ruling party and the coalition is huge. It’s a huge setback to the Congress and to the UPA with Mamata keen on marginalising the Congress in West Bengal. She begun to view the Congress as a minor player that is on the run and on the decline. And she is daring them to either accept all this soap opera or opt out of the alliance. She seems to say,"I will manage it very well and the Congress doesn’t have the spine or the guts to do the right thing."  The Congress is unable to pull its weight and it’s pathetic to witness this kind of opportunism - appeasing all kinds of elements for the loaves and fishes of office is disgraceful. Q: Do you believe that the Congress will stand by Pranab Mukherjee because Mamata has made her mind very clear, Pranab Mukherjee is not acceptable? Sardesai:  You never know with the Congress party. This is a party which at the last moment can suddenly betray even its best friends. That's been its tradition. In 2007 Shivraj Patil was all dressed up to become the president, suddenly finds another Patil by the name of Pratibha Patil coming out from anonymity. I feel having gone this far with Pranab Mukherjee, and having now revealed it publically, albeit through Mamata Banerjee, I don't think they can pull back unless they are really in a desperate situation. I feel the Congress believes that only Pranab Mukherjee can win this presidential election for them, as he has influence across party lines that can enable him to win a contest. I am still not sure that APJ Abdul Kalam will be ready to contest an election where he is not sure of victory. I don't think he wants to suffer the embarrassment of Bharat Ratna contesting an election and losing it. I think the Congress is gambling on the fact that Pranab Mukherjee has the kind of support across party lines that could make him an acceptable candidate. And there is a feeling that Pranab Mukherjee has not really delivered in the finance ministry and its time for a change. _PAGEBREAK_ Q: The BJP still holding it's cards close to it's chest with a scheduled meeting tomorrow and Kalam as their first choice, but they haven't come out publically and said that in so many words. The BJP is will be enjoying every minute of what's going on this evening? Yadav: That's the other side we need to understand very carefully. It's not as if Pranab Mukherjee needs to get a majority of the first preference votes. It is a very complex election where you get preference votes and unless everyone other than UPA comes together there are chances that UPA would still be able to push its candidate. It's candidate may not get a majority of the first preference votes, but in this system then it will come to second preference vote and if Pranab Mukherjee gets second preference votes from the Left, BSP and some other parties of that level, he may still sail through. It is not only very difficult for the Congress now to back out from that name, there is also hope that the Congress might invest in that. Important point is whether NDA would be able to get everyone other than the UPA constituents plus Mamata Banerjee on board to get one particular candidate looks very hard at this point. We are talking of the Left, BSP, strange allies like the BJD and many other parties. So things look hard for BJP to achieve. Q: Pranab Mukherjee has reached out to Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee and Biman Bose. How do you see the Left playing this? Ray: If the Left at the Centre supports him, it will be largely because of the Left in West Bengal with which Mamata has always accused him of having an understanding during those 34 years of Left Front rule. But we can’t expect him to reach out to Prakash Karat and get a sympathetic ear there. There is a Bengali element in this as opposed to an ideological on and that’s why Mamata Banerjee was so careful to replace one Bengali with another and produce Somnath Chatterjee. Pranab Mukherjee presents a great danger – as she wants to decimate the Congress in West Bengal and with Pranab Mukherjee in Rashtrapati Bhavan, she feels and fears he might become the strength and the pillar for the West Bengal state Congress. Somnath Chaatterjee in Rashtrapati Bhavan presents no such threat because of his estranged relations with the Left. In any case, the Left isn’t a force to be reckoned with and won't be for some time. Pranab Mukherjee's relations with the Left have always been ambivalent, possibly quite good and its in this complex system of votes there will be a lot of cross-voting and the cross-parties are not strict ideological barriers. Bear one thing in mind, Mamata Banerjee’s relations with the NDA and with the BJP are not particularly hostile. She was the member of the NDA government for some years and has maintained those links. So, we don’t know what she is working at behind the scenes. Q: Jayalalitha met with Avani and said that she will reveal her  mind at a later stage? How do you see Jayalalitha in all of this? Ram: Already she had publically supported Sangma as a candidate.
He is also in the arena, a declared candidate backed by AIDMK and Biju Patnaik. My question is why take your eye of another major candidate vice-president Hamid Ansari. He is a distinguished man who has graced the post. He is an intellectual and non controversial man. He is a forward-thinking statesman with a lot of experience, strong credentials and a solid record on secularism. If not Pranab then you have a very strong contender, he has not pushed himself, he won't, he is vice-president, but his chances look to me - they have take it very seriously. Q: Are we discounting Hamid Ansari in all of this because whether or not we would like to believe Mamata? The Congress would like us to believe Mamata. When Mamata came out last evening she said that Congress has two choices Pranab Mukherjee and Hamid Ansari… Sardesai: It's interesting because I was just hearing Ram Gopal Yadav of the Samajwadi Party say that if the Congress was serious about Pranab Mukherjee, why did they announced a second name? The very fact that they are discussing two names suggests that the Congress is keeping its options open. _PAGEBREAK_ Q: That's the backup plan? Sardesai: For some reason Mulayam Singh is opposing Hamid Ansari and it’s surprising because here is a Muslim from UP with an excellent track record in public service. Now the one incident of the Lok Pal bill is being used against him. The Congress now feels that in the present scenario only Pranab Mukherjee has the ability to win friends and influence people across party lines in a manner which Hamid Ansari lacks. If this was an easier election then possibly they would have gone for Hamid Ansari, but since it's a become a tough political election they feel that there is a need of a politician in the truer sense of the term and that's where Pranab Mukherjee becomes critical to the Congress’s chances. The other big question is who wil be the next finance minister and somewhere all this is linked. I think the government and the Prime Minister in particular feels that this is his last opportunity to get at least something right and that’s getting the economy back on track. Q: If Pranab Mukherjee becomes President then we assume that Manmohan would want to come in and takeover the finance ministry. Infact there is nobody else of the stature to come and replace Pranab Mukherjee? Sardesai: In politics, the immediate challenge is the presidential crisis. The long run crisis is the economy’s cupid. S&P kills you on international rating in a week when the Samajwadi Party kills you on domestic rating. So, somewhere or the other I think you will have a situation where Pranab Mukherjee’s move to Rashtrapati Bhavan will open up. Possibilities in the finance ministry and that really will whatever be the way the government is looking at this whole issue now. Q: Are we placing too much hope on the fact that if Pranab Mukherjee were to move out of the finance ministry and the Prime Minister were to takeover the finance ministry, the pace of activity would increase as fasr as the reform agenda is concerned? Would Mamata Banerjee continue to play spoiler as far as every crucial reform is concerned, from pension to retail? Ray: As far as the economy is concerned, there is no magic formula that Pranab Mukherjee hasn't applied and Manmohan Singh can and will. One assumes that there is a consensual process on economic initiatives and the Budget. So, what can Manmohan Singh do now? The Indian economy is slowing down for a number of reasons - coalition politics, global slump, and the inertia of governmental procedure. Manmohan Singh can't change all this overnight. But what we haven't touched on is that Pranab Mukherjee doesn't enjoy the Congress's full-fledged, whole hearted support as Presidential candidate. I am should imagine he has exerted a lot of pressure behind the scenes to get this far. _PAGEBREAK_ I should imagine also that they have done it reluctantly because, in my opinion, he would make a fine President. But in their opinion he is not to be entirely trusted, especially if there is another election and an indecisive Parliament. So, would Pranab Mukherjee be the right man in Rashtrapati Bhavan then? They would want someone like Pratibha Patil.
Q: The Congress has tried to push the line that Pranab Mukherjee will leave a vacuum in the finance ministry. He heads 15 GoMs and nine EGoMs, so it will be very difficult to replace him. But at the heart of the matter there has been that reluctance that Ray was alluding to? Ram: Absolutely. Sunanda is absolutely right and it’s well-known that during the last Presidential election he was just brushed past. Though everybody wanted him in the UPA and the Left in particular, but the Congress high command said that they couldn’t spare Pranab Mukherjee. So it’s not just reluctance, it's opposition. It’s an objection that came only from the top, we know that. Today the situation have changed, as Rajdeep says, there maybe some advantages, but I think you still have this problem. The big question is if Pranab Mukherjee was the man, then what is the need of a backup candidate and revealing your mind to Mamata Bannerjee, the most unreliable interlocutor within the UPA? Q: The Congress core group met and hasn’t decided on a Presidential candidate. Do you expect a big upset now, or is it now Pranab Mukherjee as far as the Congress is concerned? Sardesai: The key lies in Mulayam Singh Yadav. Somewhere the Congress believes that Mulayam Singh is perhaps someone they can do business with. Mamata Banerjee, in her own words, is a vagabond. You never know what she will do next.
Mulayam is someone they I think want to strike a deal with and if they are able to strike that deal in the next 24 hours. I don’t think the Congress wants the government to fall on the Presidential election. That’s the last thing that the Congress wants at the moment, an election being forced upon them because they lost a Presidential poll.