See no threat to govt; DMK is posturing: Prabhu Chawla

The DMK today pulled out of the Congress led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government over the US sponsored resolution on alleged war crimes by the Sri Lankan forces. The government, now reduced to a minority may survive, assured Finance Minister P Chidambaram.

Prabhu Chawla of The Indian Express feels the DMK is only posturing. "This is not the first time that they have withdrawn a minister. They have done it earlier as well. They just settle down and after that they go back. It is a public posturing because they are competing internally with Jayalalitha and elections are only 14-15 months away." Therefore, he sees no threat to the ruling government although, its position has weakened and its credibility is being doubted. Here is the edited transcript of the interview on CNBC-TV18. Q: The UPA government for now has put up a brave front saying that there is no threat to the government at this point in time. What is your view on all the news flow that we have got so far? Chawla: I agree with what Mr. Chidambaram says. There is no threat to the UPA government because there are other parties waiting to save the market. Most of the regional parties do not want election at this point in time. I have a little doubt about the parliament adopting a resolution because we cannot give you adopted resolution against Pakistan. Pakistan is trying to pass a resolution in favour of Afzal Guru. We cannot be caught in the same situation in trying to interfere in the internal affairs of another country. Why should the opposition party try to favour a minority government anyway? Whether Mr. Chidambaram will be able to get all the parties has to be seen. It has to be an unanimous resolution. I do not think political parties will be willing to save this government which is already living on a day to day basis. I only see hope in the DMK. DMK is posturing. They have been behaving like this for the past five years. They have withdrawn ministers four-five times earlier as well. This is not the first time that they have withdrawn a minister and they have done it earlier as well. They just settle down and after that they go back. It is a public posturing because they are competing internally with Jayalalitha and elections are only 14-15 months away. They have to keep this kind of posturing and they are doing it. I do not see any possibility of them withdrawing their support. They have withdrawn their ministers as I heard from the statement, but they have not withdrawn the support. It is a minority government and is already being supported by people outside. Therefore, they have the majority support. As far as the posturing is concerned, DMK is doing the posturing. It has one cabinet minister and four Minister of States who are doing nothing. If they can withdraw the minister, at least they have some kind of a competitive advantage over Jayalalitha. In that case, they can say, we have withdrawn our ministers, we are not after power, but we are supporting because we want the so called communal forces to come back to power. I do not see any threat to the government at the moment and I do not expect any parliament resolution to be passed so that Karunanidhi can withdraw his threat. There maybe some consensus, they may have some amendment which will be moved in Geneva. Last time in 2012 also DMK protested. It was crying all the time, it has been crying all the time, but they do not divorce each other. I think they are made to live with each other and they will continue to live with each other. Q: For the DMK it could be political posturing, but there has also been a threat of the Samajwadi Party withdrawing, maybe its negotiating power going up. Would you worry about that and in your mind could we be in store for an early Lok Sabha elections? Chawla: This is a possibility which looks like reality. Samajwadi Party has not got a lot of money from the Budget. They needed money which they wanted to implement their manifesto promises. Besides, Beni Prasad Verma making that kind of a statement which is not acceptable to Mulayam Singh Yadav is also reason enough. But, at the moment Mulayam Singh alone cannot pull the government down. It has to be at least a two party combination, either with DMK or Mulayam Singh Yadav. If they get together on certain issues, the government will fall on the floor of the house and the Budget which is going to be passed in Rajya Sabha is not passed, there is danger there as well. There has to be at least two major parties, either DMK-Samajwadi Party or DMK with BSP. You need to have a chunk of at least 40 MPs if the government has to fall, but I do not see that possibility immediately. But yes, this government has weakened further. Its credibility has declined further. It may continue its office, but it will not be able to govern.