'Politics of nation run by individuals than ideologies'

In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Prabhu Chawla, Editorial Director of New Indian Express spoke about the current political uncertainty and where things are headed in terms of an early election.

He said, "Politics of this country is being run by individuals these days, not by ideologies at all, because ideologies do not dictate any political decisions". According to Chawla, if government falls in May 2013, elections need to take place by September 2013.

Below is a verbatim transcript of the interview:

Q: What is your own opinion on Mulayam Singh Yadav? What he said yesterday and how he might behave in the next few months? Does he pull down the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government? Will he route for early election?

A: I must confess that I am neither a psephologist nor a soothsayer but I have been following political personalities for the past 35 years. I can only say one thing. Mulayam Singh Yadav will do what is suitable to him. Politics of this country is being run by individuals these days, not by ideologies at all, because ideologies do not dictate any political decision.

These are the few individuals like Mulayam Singh Yadav, Mayawati, Mamata Banerjee, Jayalalitha, M Karunanidhi, who are now dictating the political agenda of this country. Mulayam Singh Yadav has convinced himself -- as what I have been told by his close associate -- that early election is good for his party if he wants to be relevant, because he cannot lose Uttar Pradesh (UP) government for the next four years.

His party has been in power for one year, so UP is safe in his pocket. He wants to have some share in the central pie. Basically he can have the share in the central pie only if he gets more seats and he gets into the central government on his own terms.

If he feels the Congress party is a liability in Uttar Pradesh then he will definitely pull down the government as early as possible.

Elections are due early next year or later this year if I can read the writing on the wall what is happening in Lucknow. The father, son and the brother are all meeting together today in their own village where they will decide the future strategy, what they are going to do.

His meeting with Sharad Pawar, which has been underreported is much more revealing than anything else. What did they discuss? None of them have spoken about Sharad Pawar and Mulayam Singh Yadav's meeting. Mulayam Singh Yadav is after the Congress Party, so is the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). Both of them think that Congress is a liability. It is better to have some kind of a third front alternative that can dictate the future Prime Minister (PM) of India, that is the policy, which is going on. Individuals will get together and they will decide the future politics of India.

Q: Say in a hypothetical situation early elections do take place, possibly October-November etc. If in case the UPA does come back into power, do you think that there is a possibility that the coalition government might just be even more fragmented?

A: You are assuming that UPA will come back to power. You did not say third front will come to power or somebody like Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) with Left support comes back to power.

Let us not keep our biases against or for any combination away at the moment. The question is, as I am saying, that you have to assume that an election can be held only if the government is pulled down now. If it is pulled down now in next couple of weeks or days then election has to be held before September, not in October-November, because next session of the parliament must be held within six months of the last day of the last parliament.

If you pull the government down in March or April, the election has to be held in September because in October the government has to be formed. However, my feeling is if government falls, it will fall in the month of May, so that it can be held with all the other assembly elections, which are happening in Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Delhi and couple of other states.

So, seven elections will be held. My hunch is that if Mulayam Singh Yadav ultimately decides to pull the government down, no other combination can save the government except what people believe Nitish Kumar will save the government, I do not think so.

Some of the people, who play the market, think Nitish Kumar will support the UPA government so that markets can move. It is not moving today, it will not move for the next couple of months as well. The question is what individuals decide, they are all divided, Narendra Modi can decide anything, BJP can decide anything. Elections are going to be held before May 2014 that is for sure.

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