The uncertain and turbulent security situation in West Asia took an interesting turn when Saudi Arabia signed a Mutual Defence Agreement with Pakistan on 17th September. The agreement comes close on the heels of an Israeli missile attack into Qatar on 9th September, targeting senior Hamas leadership. Although the attack failed to take out the Hamas leadership, it has sent shock waves across the region.
To add to it, the statements from Israel’s Knesset Speaker that this strike is a message to the entire Middle East and by PM Benjamin Netanyahu threatening Qatar and any other country with more strikes (if required) in case there are ‘terrorists being harboured’, is a chilling reminder of the fragility and failure of security architecture in the region.
Plus, the security guarantees from the US are not only failing the region but in some cases, like the one in Qatar, indicate complicity with the aggressor.
At the Emergency Summit of Arab and Islamic nations, held in Doha on 15th September, the anger against Israel and frustration against the US were clearly visible and reflective in the joint statement issued at the end.
The timing and the context of the Saudi-Pakistani mutual defence pact is therefore interesting. While Saudi Arabia and the rest of West Asia are looking for better security guarantees, Pakistan is looking for legitimacy, prominence and money, especially after the loss of face in the brief military conflict against India in May this year.
As per available details, the pact showcases the “shared commitment” of both nations to strengthen security and promote regional peace, while also pledging to “strengthen joint deterrence against any aggression”. It also states that “any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both”.
A brief history of Saudi-Pakistan security relationship
The defence pact between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan may raise eyebrows in the context of its timing as well as a few clauses of ‘mutual defence’ but their security partnership is not new. As early as 1951, the two nations had signed a “Treaty of Friendship,” which set the benchmark guiding their relationship in areas of political, military, and economic cooperation for many decades. Also, Pakistan successfully played the ‘Muslim Card’ which prevented India from developing closer ties with the Gulf region in the initial decades till the global war on terror forced the region to face reality and therein the true face of Pakistan.
However, well before this, there were many instances when Pakistan deployed its troops in support of Saudi Arabia. During the late 1960s and 1970s, a large number of Pakistani officers were deputed to Saudi Arabia as trainers, advisers and engineers, while thousands of Saudi officers and soldiers were trained in Pakistan under structured courses. The first real test of the relationship came during the Grand Mosque seizure in Mecca in November 1979. It was a week-long siege which was finally broken when the SSG commandos from Pakistan, assisted by French Special forces, were able to overcome and eliminate the threat.
Ever since, the deployment of Pakistani troops has been a regular feature in Saudi Arabia. Soon after the 1979 episode, a protocol agreement was signed in 1982 which further cemented the security cooperation by ensuring the “deputation of Pakistan Armed Forces personnel and military training” in Saudi Arabia. It is estimated that a brigade worth of troops are permanently stationed at some key locations across Saudi Arabia, with one of the key tasks being, ‘security of the royal family’.
Pakistan’s assistance is subject to self-interest
It is however not the case that Pakistan has fought for Saudi Arabia whenever asked. In 2015, when a Saudi-led coalition launched military operations against the Houthis in Yemen, Pakistan declined to provide military support citing a Parliament resolution. However, the ties have continued to remain strong.
Over the decades, Pakistani armed forces have trained more than 8,000 officers and soldiers. In 2017, Pakistan’s former army chief, Gen. Raheel Sharif, was appointed to lead the Saudi-led Islamic Military Counter Terrorism Coalition. The new defence pact is thus another step in the formalisation of security ties between the two.
Should India be worried?
The sudden announcement of the defence pact has raised eyebrows in New Delhi. However, allaying fears and concerns, soon after the announcement of the defence pact, the Indian foreign ministry spokesperson clarified that the Indian government was aware of the signing of the pact.
Also, this is not the first time that Pakistan has signed a defence pact with any country or alliance. It may be recalled that it had signed a Mutual Defence Assistance Agreement with the US in 1954 and had become a member of the Southeast Asia Collective Defence Treaty (SEATO) too. Later, it also joined Iran, Turkey and in the Baghdad Pact (later CENTO). In all these alliances, Pakistan had sought two clear aims, security assistance and military hardware from the Western alliance and support during any conflict against India.
However, neither in 1965 nor in 1971, did any alliance partner intervene directly to help Pakistan fight India, except to provide some military hardware. Even during the 1999 Kargil war, Pakistan was largely on its own.
As if to clarify what India already thinks it knows, Saudi Arabia put out a statement on 19th September stating that its relationship with India is more robust than ever. Also, the agreement with Pakistan is not a response to any specific country or event.
What Pakistan gets out of the latest pact
However, it goes without saying that this defence pact is a major morale booster for Pakistan. This pact could bring with it money with which Pakistan so desperately needs to upgrade its military to buy more reliable weapon platforms than the Chinese ones that failed miserably during Operation Sindoor. This would imply a closer buyer-seller partnership with the US and Turkey, indeed a happy situation for Pakistan.
This would be a definite area of concern as India may have to contest a better-equipped adversary in any future conflict. Also, the fact that Pakistan has nuclear weapons, the only Muslim country to do so and has in the past reportedly offered them to Saudi Arabia as an insurance against Iran developing nuclear weapons, should be a matter for concern in India, simply because it emboldens Pakistan to play the nuclear card more prominently in any future conflict with India.
There is another indirect fallout of this pact: support to terrorism. It is no secret that Pakistan is in a very bad economic situation. Also, the threat of sanctions from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) for its support to terror groups is always lurking around the corner for Pakistan. With the announcement of this defence pact, Pakistan’s support to its terror network can get a new lease of life.
What should India do?
The Israeli missile attack has dramatically transformed the security landscape of West Asia. This is the first time that a Gulf country has been targeted by Israel. Going by its statements, this may not be the last time either. The US complicity, or lack of will to intervene and stop Israel, as well as failure to protect the Gulf states has forced the region to start looking beyond the US.
With China and India unwilling to play the role and Russia still preoccupied with its war in Ukraine, Pakistan has suddenly become the ‘go-to’ player. Its military strength, nuclear arsenal and the fact that it is more than willing to play the role, made Pakistan the ideal partner in this deal. Plus, the ‘Muslim Brother’ card is useful too.
As for India, this is not the first development in recent months which appears to directly or indirectly target the country. US tariffs on India have made the establishment sit up and look for other options, despite the US being India’s strategic partner for many years. The Pahalgam terror attack made India realise that the threat of terror has to be dealt with differently, which led to a drastic change in security policy. Also, the Chinese support to Pakistan during Operation Sindoor is now well documented.
The recent decision by the US to revoke the exemption given to India in operating Chabahar port in Iran is yet another lesson in realpolitik for India.
Going forward, therefore, the choice is very simple for India. Shutting out external noises while staying vigilant is the key mantra for India. There is very little that India can do if China and Pakistan or Turkey collaborate on military modernisation.
South Asia’s security dynamics may soon change
Also, Pakistan’s defence pact with Saudi Arabia had been in the works for a long time, it is just that it has been signed now. With the US wanting the Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan back again under its control, the security dynamics in South Asia too could change very fast and Pakistan could once again be a beneficiary of the developments.
However, India today is more formidable and powerful than it was a decade back. The economic growth has powered it to what will become the 4th largest economy soon. The defence modernisation and the focus on self-reliance is already showing results and the political stability combined with its diplomatic outreach has made India a powerful leader on the global stage.
What India requires now is a drastic change in mindset as regards regional and global affairs. No longer can India get away by maintaining neutrality or being the ‘good boy’. In situations of conflict like the one that prevails in West Asia, India needs to call out the aggressor where required, even if it means it is Israel, a key strategic ally which has stood by India through thick and thin.
It is also a time to think and plan for a long-term vision of being part of a larger regional security apparatus even if it does not imply putting boots on the ground. If India does not take the opportunity, someone else will because it is only a matter of time before the US further discredits itself in the region, Israel launches another set of missiles into a sovereign territory and the Gulf states once again find themselves helpless.
Conclusion
The world is in a state of churn and the global order is fast crumbling. The expanding conflict in West Asia and the inability as well as complicity of the US to prevent Israeli aggression has brought the region to a key inflection point.
A new order will evolve from the chaos and Pakistan looks to have benefited from the initial moves. However, nothing is final. The new order and the structure will evolve over the years.
India would do well to be inside the new structure. The efforts of the past decade in building strategic partnerships across the region should be put to use aggressively to moderate and channelise the evolving discourse rather than sitting on the sidelines, hoping that this too shall pass.
The Saudi-Pakistan Defence pact may not have direct consequences for India but it is a reflection of a rapidly evolving order. India cannot afford to sit out.
(Rajeev Agarwal is a Senior Research Consultant at Chintan Research Foundation.)
Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.
Discover the latest Business News, Sensex, and Nifty updates. Obtain Personal Finance insights, tax queries, and expert opinions on Moneycontrol or download the Moneycontrol App to stay updated!
