The intensifying feud between All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) leaders, co-ordinator O Panneerselvam and joint co-ordinator Edappadi K Palaniswami, and the comeback plans of former general secretary VK Sasikala are threatening to break the party again after three decades. Without charismatic leaders like former Chief Ministers MG Ramachandran and J Jayalalithaa at the helm, the AIADMK which has been dominating the political scenario in Tamil Nadu for the last five decades is facing a crucial struggle for survival now.
Will the AIADMK lose its political space in Tamil Nadu, and if so, which party is likely to benefit from it? Is politics in the state changing after five decades of being a tussle between the AIADMK and its main rival the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)? These are the questions in the minds of AIADMK workers and political observers.
Sasikala, a close aide of Jayalalithaa, has started speaking to party men and is mobilising their support, while making her intentions of a comeback into active politics evident. What makes it interesting is that these conversations are not done in stealth, but she has ensured that the party cadre is informed about it. She has managed to put across the message by telecasting these conversations on Jaya TV, a popular cable TV channel which is controlled by Sasikala and which until 2017 was the AIADMK’s official media platform.
The AIADMK deputy co-ordinator KP Munusamy’s reaction to this was to assert that Sasikala was only trying to create chaos and that she could not re-enter the party. The defensive reaction only betrays the fears and anxiety of Palaniswami camp.
To understand cracks within the AIADMK and to know how deep they run, it is important to understand the caste equations that dominate the party leadership.
Palaniswami, who belongs to the dominant Gounder community in the western districts, ran a poll campaign during the recent assembly polls along caste lines, and the community joined his campaign with the slogan ‘Gounder rule in Tamil Nadu’. However, the former Chief Minister’s casteist campaign was resented by the Mukkulathor community, which has a dominant presence in the eastern and southern districts of Tamil Nadu. The AIADMK’s poor performance in these regions is attributed to the resentment of the Mukkulathor community to which Panneerselvam and Sasikala belong.
Another important aspect to Sasikala’s actions is that it is at a time when both Palaniswami and Panneerselvam have started pulling the AIADMK in opposite directions. The first signs of trouble was visible during a meeting of legislators for electing the Leader of Opposition (LoP) in the assembly. According to media reports, Panneerselvam threw an open challenge to Palaniswami for the post of the LoP. He accused that it was Palaniswami’s refusal to admit former AIADMK treasurer TTV Dhinakaran into the party that led to the AIADMK’s defeat in 40 constituencies.
However, Palaniswami who enjoys the support of over 50 MLAs got himself elected LoP. After this meeting, both the leaders have stopped the practice of issuing joint statements and have started issuing separate ones. Sasikala’s move at this juncture must have come as a surprise to the Palaniswami camp and a relief for Panneerselvam supporters.
Since 2019, the AIADMK’s organisational elections have not been held due to COVID-19 and later the assembly elections. Palaniswami’s supporters are planning to hold the polls before the local body elections and take over the party reins. However, the Election Commission of India’s order on November 2017, retrieving ‘Two Leaves’ symbol for the unified AIADMK had allocated it in the name of party treasurer Panneerselvam and presidium chairman Madhusudhanan, a Panneerselvam loyalist. If Panneerselvam decides to break away from the party again, the party faces the risk of losing the ‘Two Leaves’ again.
Besides, if Sasikala and Panneerselvam join hands and mobilise support of the general council members, Palaniswami’s plans to gain the party’s leadership may face a stiff challenge. Besides, Sasikala’s petition opposing her removal from the post of general secretary is still pending in a city civil court. She could also seek a stay on organisational elections till her petition is disposed.
Over the last five decades various parties have tried to break the two-party system by contesting alone or forming alliances. If the AIADMK gradually loses ground, many parties with various hues — national, Dravidian and Tamil nationalist — are waiting eagerly to gain prominence. Some of them are in alliance with the DMK and the AIADMK. They are likely to wait till the local body elections, which are due by October, before chalking out a new course of action to capture the ground lost by the AIADMK.
The immediate beneficiary of the chaotic situation in the AIADMK will be the ruling DMK, which could see an increase in its support base and an easy victory in the local body elections, since the gradual emergence of alternative players will take a few more years.
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