A rare admission by Myanmar’s military government which India is still needlessly backing, should make New Delhi sit up and smell the coffee. The junta has just acknowledged that it is engaged in peace talks – brokered by China – with an alliance of armed ethnic groups. And this has reportedly now led to a temporary ceasefire.
The new development proves that the Myanmar army, a power centre that India attaches such great importance to and continues to support blindly, is in reality now on the backfoot against advancing rebel forces aligned with the National Unity Government (NUG) in the civil war raging right in our backyard. And alarmingly, as usual Beijing has stolen a march on us; promptly stepping into the breach as an interlocutor to keep both sides happy in order to protect its strategic and economic interests, whereas we are only half-awake.
China's Dexterity
We are also displaying other visible signs of grogginess. There is a conspicuous lack of coordination between various government ministries when it comes to Myanmar, a nation we share a 1,643 km-long border with.
On the one hand, the Ministry of Civil Aviation has just announced a new air route connecting Imphal with Mandalay, along with Guwahati-Bangkok, Guwahati-Dhaka and Agartala-Chittagong flights under the UDAN scheme which will become operational very soon. And on the other, the Ministry of External Affairs, has advised Indian nationals to avoid non-essential travel to Myanmar citing the civil war, and instructed Indians already in Myanmar to avoid travelling by road in violence-hit regions!
The conflicting announcements were made recently within days of one another revealing the absence of teamwork and clear thinking.
These aberrations apart, it’s high time India reviews its ties with the armed forces, known as Tatmadaw, and resets its relations with Myanmar where the ground is slipping from under the junta’s feet. The regime’s vulnerability has forced de facto ruler General Min Aung Hlaing to turn to China because of the close links Beijing has quietly forged with rebel forces while officially backing the junta.
India, in contrast, has been ‘principled’. It has so far shunned pro-democracy forces, armed ethnic groups and the NUG-in-exile, and fully backed the junta since February 2021 when General Hlaing toppled Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy government. But the net result of our single mindedness is that while we have been sidelined, Beijing is centre stage today thanks to its policy of running with the hare and hunting with the hounds.
Read | The Eastern Window: Myanmar's civil war poses risks for India
In order to remain in the game, the need of the hour for New Delhi is to shed its unwavering commitment to the generals whose grip is anyway loosening, or at least balance it by opening direct channels of communication with the Peoples’ Defense Forces and Three Brotherhood Alliance, thereby planting one foot in the pro-democracy camp. Like China, India should play both sides in its national interest. The NUG-in-exile, in any case, has great expectations from us which we have not lived up to. We should not miss the golden opportunity to redeem ourselves now for their sake as well as ours.
India Must Strike A Balance
India’s close ties, bordering on devotion to the military government, is evident from New Delhi recently allowing 46 Myanmar soldiers pursued by rebel forces to take refuge in Mizoram. All of them would have been killed by the Chin ethnic militias if we had denied them permission to cross over. They were airlifted by Indian army helicopters from Mizoram to Moreh in Manipur from where they were safely sent back to Tamu in Myanmar, making it the first time India has rescued foreign soldiers fleeing battles in their own country.
The unprecedented level of co-operation between Indian and Myanmar military has naturally not gone down well with the NUG which expects New Delhi to be at least neutral, if not support pro-democracy forces, especially when the junta’s hold is weakening. The NUG, had in fact, outrightly rejected General Hlaing’s call for dialogue, forcing him to approach Beijing, which successfully brought militias to the negotiating table in a remarkable breakthrough.
India, which is strangely keeping all its eggs in one basket, has exported $51 million worth of military hardware to Myanmar since the coup, according to the United Nations, underlining India’s current stand in the conflict. New Delhi has also been hosting a plethora of Myanmar officials sanctioned by the United States and the European Union, and rolling out the red carpet for them.
Frankly, nobody expects India to take a leaf out of the European Parliament’s book, which has recognised the NUG as the legitimate government of Myanmar! Most other countries have condemned the coup and demanded the restoration of democracy. New Delhi therefore needs quick policy modifications; essentially break the ice with the NUG and the PDF affiliated to it; if it wants to be able to exercise influence on the new Myanmar in the making. Otherwise, only China’s writ will run there.
SNM Abdi is an independent journalist specialising in India’s foreign policy and domestic politics. Views are personal, and do not represent the stance of this publication.
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