While there is no doubt that the Ajit Pawar-led split in the Nationalist Congress Party is a huge setback for his uncle and party patriarch Sharad Pawar, the fast-paced political developments which unfolded in Mumbai on Sunday are also a pointer to the Bharatiya Janata Party’s own political limitations in this important Western state. Rebel NCP leader Ajit Pawar was sworn in as deputy chief minister while eight other party legislators were inducted as ministers in the Maharashtra government.
The BJP obviously felt the need to destabilise the Shiv Sena-NCP-Congress Maha Vikas Aghadi coalition as it feared that the opposition grouping could emerge as a serious political challenger to it in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Not confident about retaining its winning tally in Maharashtra, the BJP had to necessarily strike again after it succeeded in creating fissures in the Shiv Sena last year. That operation was aimed at capturing power in Maharashtra and settling scores with Shiv Sena leader Uddhav Thackeray who had walked out on his party’s pre-poll alliance with the BJP.
Focus On Sharad Pawar
The Sunday operation is meant to destroy the opposition coalition’s credibility and leave it in disarray.The Maharashtra drama unfolded at a time when opposition parties were in the process of putting together an anti-BJP front in the run-up to the next Lok Sabha election. Sharad Pawar has been positioning himself as an elder statesman and architect of this grouping, particularly because he has the necessary gravitas for this job. But the erosion in his own ranks will make it difficult for him to discharge that role.
The first meeting of the disparate group of regional parties and the Congress was held in Patna last month where the leaders decided in principle to fight unitedly in the coming general election. The next meeting is scheduled for July 13 and 14 in Bengaluru where the participating leaders are expected to firm up their programme and campaign. In fact, the dates of this meeting was announced by Sharad Pawar, who has lately been exceptionally vocal in his criticism of the Modi government and has continuously underlined the need for opposition parties to take on the BJP unitedly.
Pawar’s reputation as an astute and canny politician will be put to test in the coming months as he deals with the fallout of the split in the NCP ranks. Ajit Pawar has claimed that he enjoys the support of the majority of NCP legislators, MPs and party cadres. This claim has been contested by Sharad Pawar who maintained otherwise, stating such situations were not new to him and that he would reach out to the people as he had faith in them.
Despite Sharad Pawar’s admission that he was surprised by his nephew’s defection along with his confidantes Chhagan Bhujbal and Praful Patel, there are lingering doubts that the NCP supremo was unaware of their move. Political observers in Maharashtra are convinced that those who left had Sharad Pawar’s blessings.
Several NCP leaders, including Ajit Pawar, who defected on Sunday have been under pressure following the corruption cases filed against them by the Modi government. It is entirely possible that Pawar is playing the waiting game till the 2024 general election as he chooses to overlook the defections and, at the same time, continues with his attempts to build an anti-BJP coalition.
BJP’s 2024 Challenge
On the other hand, the BJP was waiting to upset the opposition’s unity plans. It was presented with a perfect opportunity to go ahead with its operation following reports that NCP supremo Sharad Pawar’s nephew Ajit Pawar was unhappy at being sidelined by his uncle. Ajit Pawar was miffed when Sharad Pawar ignored his contribution in building the NCP and handed over the party’s reins to his daughter Supriya Sule, a comparative political lightweight.
That Ajit Pawar was willing to shake hands with the BJP was evident as far back as 2019 when he was sworn in as deputy CM along with Devendra Fadnavis as chief minister at an early morning function. However, that government did not last long as Sharad Pawar struck back, forcing his nephew to return to the party fold. But Sule’s appointment as NCP working president proved to be the last straw for Ajit Pawar.
For the present, the BJP has reason to exult as it has succeeded in adding to its numbers in the Maharashtra assembly and has punctured the opposition’s unity project. It now has the support of the Eknath Shinde faction of the Shiv Sena and the Ajit Pawar faction of the NCP. But it also faces the challenge of meeting the conflicting demands of those who have chosen to throw their lot with the BJP and its own party leaders, especially when tickets are to be distributed for next year’s Lok Sabha and assembly polls.
Having taunted the Maha Vikas Aghadi coalition as being a messy three-party set-up pulling in different directions, the BJP could well find itself in the same boat.
Anita Katyal is a Delhi-based independent journalist. Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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