The arrest of Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal has brought out two principle thoughts among the public. While some believe, his arrest is unjustified and that it will create a sympathy wave in favour of Aam Adami Party which will pay electoral dividends in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls. Others believe, with their star campaigner in jail, the electoral prospects of AAP will suffer a major blow.
The chances of a sympathy wave in favour of Kejriwal or INDIA alliance like the one which was created in favour of Indira Gandhi after her arrest by the Janata Party resulting in her return to power after 1980 Lok Sabha elections, seems impossible. The arrest of Arvind Kejriwal on the charges of corruption has damaged party’s image and if he is not released before the election, it will seriously hamper the electoral chances of AAP in 2024 Lok Sabha elections. I would like to offer some explanation why I think a sympathy wave seems impossible.
No Place for Corruption
Let’s not forget, Arvind Kejriwal has been arrested on alleged charges of corruption in the liquor scam. The Indian voters have voted governments out of power in the past, when popular governments have been charged of being involved in corruption. The Congress-led UPA government lost badly to the BJP-led NDA in 2014 mainly on the issue of corruption. The memories of 1989 Lok Sabha elections contested on the issue of Bofors scam is still alive. Hardly any evidence came out against the Rajiv Gandhi Government in the Bofors scandal after years of investigation and same was the case with regard to the Coal Scam, 2G scam of which UPA government was charged to be implicated.
Even if there was no concrete evidence against those two governments, but they still lost as the perception was created that those governments were involved in corruption. The Indian voters are unwilling to support the leader or party who is perceived to be involved in corrupt practices.
Voters Feel Cheated
Another reason why a sympathy wave may not be possible in favour of Arvind Kejriwal is because, this party was founded while leading a crusade against corruption, people had a lot of hope from this party especially with regard to changing the nature of politics in India, and a promise for a clean government. But the charges of corruption against Arvind Kejriwal and other AAP leaders has disappointed the people, especially the middle classes who formed the backbone of the anti-corruption movement and the support base of AAP when it contested the 2013 and 2015 assembly elections in Delhi. The same voters are now disappointed as they feel cheated by the AAP especially Arvind Kejriwal. The disappointment with Kejriwal is far more than with any other leader facing similar corruption charges, since he had raised very high standards of honesty and a promise to practice clean politics. People will now try to juxtapose the promises he made and the allegations which has been leveled against him.
Damage to Kejriwal’s Reputation
There is a dim possibility of a sympathy wave in favour of AAP because of the events which preceded Arvind Kejriwal’s arrest. A surprise arrest may have created some sympathy in his favour. But it was well known that he was served 9 summons by the Enforcement Directorate to appear for questioning to which he never responded. This had two kinds of impact on the people regarding Arvind Kejriwal, first it damaged his reputation even before he was arrested as many believed he should not have evaded questioning if he had nothing to hide. His non response to the ED summons raised doubts in the minds of people over his integrity. Also after nine summons, it was obvious to the people that he would be arrested, so his arrest did not come as any surprise.
Fractured Support from INDIA Bloc
Finally, the contradictory stand taken by political parties within the INDIA alliance on what they feel about the corruption charges levelled on Arvind Kejriwal also became a mockery. Some leaders of the INDIA alliance parties in the past had held press conferences charging Arvind Kejriwal of being involved in corruption. Now after his arrest when people saw them changing their statement and supporting Kejriwal, people started raising questions on whether the support Kejriwal is getting is genuine or artificial. Given this situation, I don’t think his arrest has any potential of creating a sympathy wave in his favour certainly not nationally nor even in Delhi and Punjab where AAP is in people.
Sanjay Kumar is a Professor at Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS). He is also a Political Analyst. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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