As Conservative Party members elevated Liz Truss to be their new leader on September 5, nostalgia for Boris Johnson is palpable. There’s even speculation that, like his hero Winston Churchill, he may one day return from the wilderness.
Even if Johnson never leads his party again, few doubt that he will cast a long shadow from the sidelines. That has made his legacy contested territory — because it’s essential for defining the Tory Party, and conservatism, in the post-Johnson era.
To his followers (and Johnson doesn’t have supporters so much as acolytes), he is the saviour who delivered Brexit, and the Houdini who conjured up a whole new electoral coalition from swathes of the country that had voted Labour for 70 years. To his detractors, he was the reckless driver who crashed out of the European Union. His election became the source of a toothache, maybe even wider decay in his party and public debate.
His supporters may rue the messy personal life, the chaotic way of working, and the propensity to say whatever is convenient. But they see in him a unique political mind — instinctively charismatic, competitive, creative — and a politician who, wiser from three years as Prime Minister, could be capable of a comeback, or at least of have a say in the party’s future. They argue that he got the big things right, but failed to surround himself with the right people, and allowed a pile-up of mistakes, including tax hikes, to throw him off course.
The polls, however, suggest the broader public have come to a very different conclusion. To most Brits, he’s been a let-down. Only 22 percent of Brits in the latest YouGov poll think he was either great or good; 55 percent think he was poor or terrible.
That’s a long way from where he started. Johnson got early credit for completing Britain’s departure from the European Union, and was rewarded with a massive majority in the 2019 elections. He reshaped the conservative voter base by speaking to the frustrations of working-class people who were tired of stagnating wages, in the same way that Donald Trump reshaped the Republican Party.
But he wasted no time in spending that credit. Sweeping pledges were too often followed by drama, the distraction of various scandals, and problems with implementing policy. Serious issues, from a creaking National Health Service and unfunded social care to policing problems and public-sector strikes, festered without serious engagement.
Brexit, and the politics it unleashed, represent such a historic pivot that it must be at the centre of Johnson’s legacy. The early impact has been largely one of added costs and frictions. Relations with Europe are at a low point. Those who argue that Brexit will provide long-term opportunities say wait for it. Their hopes are placed partly in the coming bonfire of regulations that Liz Truss has promised in order to unleash growth and innovation.
In other areas, there was some vision to note. The government policy paper published in February was a serious effort to redress the underlying causes of disparities in income and opportunity. But like Johnson’s pledge to redress the COVID-19 gap in education or his net-zero pledge, his levelling up promises were never given the resources needed to become reality.
Where he did deliver was for Ukraine. Johnson’s instinctive understanding of the geopolitical stakes in Ukraine’s self-defence and his all-in support for Kyiv — from military aid to training Ukrainian soldiers and his own diplomatic efforts — revealed a keen sense of the geopolitical moment. This steady leadership deserves to sit on the positive side of the legacy ledger.
It’s too early to say whether the broader public will revise its view over time. Johnson was largely missing in inaction over the summer as the Tory leadership race took its course. But he did take time out to burnish his legacy, visiting Kyiv (where he’s a national hero) and pledging a £700 million ($806 million) investment in the proposed Sizewell C nuclear power station in Suffolk.
One wild card is the pending House of Commons privilege committee investigation into whether he knowingly misled parliament over Partygate. The committee decides whether he has committed a contempt of parliament, and it can recommend sanctions, including whether to end Johnson’s parliamentary career. The entire House would then vote, thrusting his future and legacy, into the centre of political debate again.
Last week, the government released legal advice by David Pannick, a prominent barrister, arguing that the committee’s review is fundamentally flawed and would “paralyse democracy”. The pressure is on Tories to go easy. Still, the government’s clumsy attempt to override the privilege committee’s sanction on the former MP Owen Paterson ended in his resignation, and an embarrassment for Johnson — a lesson that will be fresh in Truss’ mind.
As he puts together a new life (and, importantly for this famously skint Prime Minister, income stream), Johnson is unlikely to make much noise other than to support the new leader. But I wouldn’t wager that he stays very quiet for long.
For one thing, he’s nurturing a grievance. Johnson has been clear he thinks he was thrown under the bus. He’s always found an audience impossible to resist. He will certainly find it easy to send out bat signals to his substantial follower base. Every (highly remunerated) speech and newspaper column will be parsed by the media; a witty well-aimed line could be devastating for a particular Truss policy or might prove powerful in an election.
In the meantime, the Tories will keep debating Johnson’s legacy, some hoping to use it to bury him, and others to resurrect a stronger version from the ashes of failure. Liz Truss rode to power on his coattails, but she’ll be nervously looking over her shoulder at what he does next.
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