A key takeaway from the exit polls that the Bharatiya Janata Party’s southern conquest has been stopped in its tracks while the saffron juggernaut continues to roll on mercilessly in the rest of India, annexing new territories.
Opposition parties have contested the exit poll results as a command performance by a pro-Narendra Modi media. Mamata Banerjee called it gossip. Chandrababu Naidu said all exit polls are wrong. But that does not matter. Self-denial cannot last beyond counting day.
If the results on 23 May show the same trend as the exit polls, which they will in all probability, the BJP would have extended its hold over new swathes of land in the east, notably Bengal and Orissa, while vigorously defending the fortresses in its traditional cow belt. The only region resisting is the south, where the party from the Hindi heartland is seen unlikely to improve much on its 2014 show, although the long term prospects appear to be bright.
In Karnataka, which is supposed to have become the beacon of light for the opposition to come together to fight Narendra Modi, the alliance between Rahul Gandhi’s Congress and Deve Gowda’s JD-S is in tatters. The lingering trouble for Kumaraswamy’s coalition government has been such an embarrassment for the unity apostles that the tag of ‘Mahamilawat’ given to them by Prime Minister Modi has stuck. The alliance seems to have surrendered the initiative to the BJP enabling it to turn the tide in the saffron party’s favour.
The opposition must feel relieved that in the rest of the southern states, its partners have contained the BJP onslaught with Tamil Nadu, Andhra and Telangana defending their turf well. But secular-minded Kerala seems to be relenting by probably letting the saffron party open its first account. Just like in its ‘pair’ state of Bengal, the BJP seems all set to walk into the space occupied by the communists once the left citadels start falling one by one.
The exit poll results explode the myth of a Congress comeback, first seen in last year’s assembly elections. When the Congress formed governments in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, it was hailed as the sign of a revival of fortunes for the Grand Old Party and Modi’s promise of ‘Congress-mukt’ Bharat turned into something of an anachronism.
But the hype of the Congress celebration completely overlooked the fact that despite the anti-incumbency of multiple terms, the BJP had done remarkably well in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, almost being in a position to cobble a majority. The only state where Congress had some claim to fame was Chhattisgarh, where the party won a comfortable majority on its own. The exit polls have brought this out in no uncertain terms, exposing the vulnerability of the Congress governments after only a few months as their performances have been marked by ineptitude, corruption and failure to honour commitments.
The installation of its governments in these states was supposed to provide muscle to the Congress revival. But that was not to be. In fact, the so-called Congress revival was a highly deceptive proposition and Modi’s promise of a Congress-free India appears to be as relevant today as it was at the time of the UP assembly elections, which the saffron party swept in 2017.
Congress president Rahul Gandhi gave it all away when he tweeted a targeted attack on the Election Commission just ahead of the exit poll results prompting observers to feel that he had virtually conceded defeat.
Gandhi has been accusing Modi of consistently lying to the nation. Mindless statements on the Rafale deal, especially the one involving the Supreme Court, gave the BJP the handle to beat Gandhi. In public perception, it became an issue of Modi’s lies versus Gandhi’s lies. The exit poll results show that the people, however, accepted Modi’s version of the truth.
The fiasco over his apology to the Supreme Court actually dramatised Rahul Gandhi’s predicament. The Congress president made a big mistake of not apologising at the first instance, thereby prolonging the process, which kept the issue live for long and seriously affected his credibility.
While Gandhi’s debut in electoral politics was widely mocked, in all fairness it must be said that he has had a more comfortable baptism compared to sister Priyanka Vadra, whose threatened ‘Brahmastra’ simply failed to strike. Her nondescript speeches created little impact on the crowds. If the exit poll predictions turn out to be true on 23 May, the Congress needs to rethink its options if it wants to stay relevant.
(K Raveendran is a veteran journalist who writes extensively on national issues. Views expressed are personal.)
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