When Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami hoisted the tricolour at St George Fort on August 15, the question in everyone’s minds was: Was this the last time he is doing so? This is because doubts are being raised, even within his party the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), if he will make a comeback as Chief Minister in the 2021 assembly polls.
The assembly polls are expected to take place in about eight months, unless it is deferred citing health concerns due to COVID-19.
His challenger within the party is AIADMK coordinator and Deputy Chief Minister O Panneerselvam (OPS). The cracks in the AIADMK leadership were visible after posters appeared in Theni — OPS’ hometown is in Theni district — hailing him as the next Chief Minister. It was seen as a reaction to the public declaration by Sivakasi MLA and minister Rajendra Balaji who wanted the party to go to the polls with EPS (as Palaniswami is referred to by his loyalists) as the CM candidate. Balaji, an EPS loyalist, was countering the remarks of another minister, Sellur K Raju, who said the MLAs would elect the Chief Minister after the assembly elections.
The posters hailing OPS as Chief Minister were eventually removed, but only after a delegation of 12 ministers met the Deputy Chief Minister, and held discussions for a couple of hours. The delegation also met EPS and conveyed OPS’ views, making it clear that both the leaders refused to talk to each other directly. Finally, a joint statement was issued by the two leaders restraining party leaders from commenting on party affairs in public. However, the statement was silent on the Chief Ministerial candidate issue, indicating that OPS had refused to budge.
As a resolution has not been found, the fight has only been deferred and the issue is expected to crop up any time soon. EPS supporters say he has not given up his claim to contest as chief ministerial candidate, especially since he has emerged as the popular face of the party. His supporters point out that the AIADMK, with its monolithic structure and charismatic leaders such as the late MGR and J Jayalalithaa, has never gone to the polls without naming a CM candidate.
The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) rank and file as well as the alliance parties have accepted MK Stalin as the chief ministerial candidate for the 2021 assembly polls. EPS supporters suggest that in such a situation the ruling AIADMK cannot face the electorate without a CM candidate.
During his tenure as Chief Minister, EPS has weathered many challenges, managed to retain power and the AIADMK has almost completed its full term under his stewardship. On August 15, after hoisting the national flag, EPS asserted that he had earned the love and affection of the people. This is not the first time that he is claiming people’s support — he started doing so after the AIADMK won nine out of 22 seats in the by-elections held along with the 2019 Parliament elections.
EPS as the Chief Minister continues to be under the limelight and OPS has been pushed to the shadows. OPS, whose position has been weakened considerably, has succeeded only in postponing the Chief Minister’s agenda. EPS is certain to push his agenda at the opportune moment and it appears that OPS is fighting a losing battle. In fact, some in the party think that OPS, who fears that EPS might relieve him from the party coordinator’s post when the AIADMK general council meets this year, is putting up a fight to keep his party post intact.
OPS might be using this issue as a bargaining chip to not only retain his coordinator post, but to also see that his supporters within the party get key posts in the southern districts when organisational polls are held. OPS is also likely to demand a major share of assembly seats for his loyalists in the elections.
So far, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has refrained from backing OPS against EPS since the saffron party is aware that the Chief Minister has more support within the party. However, the BJP is looking to get a higher number of seats from the AIADMK, and its leaders have already begun talking about a coalition government in Tamil Nadu with key posts to its party members.
EPS had already stated that the AIADMK alliance will be decided only at the time of assembly polls, indicating that he will move to the alliance issue only after settling the chief ministerial nominee issue. Once EPS gets his agenda through in the party, he will have an upper hand in the negotiations with the BJP.
N Ravikumar is a Chennai-based senior journalist. Views are personal.
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