The 2022 assembly elections are a litmus test of Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s leadership. If the Congress is able to retain Punjab, and take back even one of the three states — Uttarakhand, Goa, or Manipur — from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), then his claim on the party president’s position becomes strong. The grand old party is expected to announce a new president in September.
Gandhi has been facing a lot of opposition, not only from the outside, but also from within the party, such as the G-23, with respect to his style of functioning, and inability to deliver. Add to this the BJP’s social media apparatus leaves no chance to ridicule him, and show him in poor light.
Gandhi was appointed as Congress President in December 2017, before the 2019 general elections. He resigned in July 2019 taking moral responsibility for the Congress drubbing in the polls.
Bad Timing
Family-controlled parties such as the Congress and regional parties such as the Samajwadi Party (SP), the Rashtriya Janata Dal, the Telangana Rashtra Samiti, etc. have to have a proper succession plan in place. The timing of handing over the baton is very crucial, and it is here where current acting Congress President Sonia Gandhi erred.
Rahul Gandhi was appointed as party president when the Congress was out of power. That’s not a good time for succession because more often than not you face rebellion. Disgruntled senior leaders, who if the party was in power could have been placated by offering ministerial berths/governorships, would come out in public voicing their displeasure.
Smooth Succession
Power transfer in family-based parties should ideally take place when the party is in power; this often ensures a smooth transition. SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav made his son Akhilesh Yadav Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh in a surprise move in 2012, because he knew he could face difficulties in installing his son later. While in power, Mulayam Singh Yadav was able to manage his brothers, and the SP top leadership.
Similarly, in 2015, after the Mahagathbandhan stormed to power in Bihar, Lalu Prasad opted for his younger son Tejashwi Yadav to be the Deputy Chief Minister. Other leaders and his elder son were consoled through positions in the ministry.
Trinamool Congress (TMC) chief and West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee picked her nephew Abhishek Banerjee as TMC’s general secretary, effectively the number two in party after her stupendous victory in West Bengal polls in 2021. Banerjee did face resistance from the old guard, but was reinstated in February. Imagine the discontent he would have to face if the TMC was not in power.
In Punjab, Amarinder Singh was (in a way) forced to resign a few months before the polls, and Charanjit Singh Channi was made Punjab’s first Dalit Chief Minister. Later, the Congress was able to choose Channi as its chief ministerial face for the current polls, and in the process deflect criticism/quell rebellion to a large extent from within the party, because Channi was occupying the top post. Whether this strategy works or not remains to be seen?
This is an example of the power and advantage the constitutional position brings with it, and it is something Rahul Gandhi lacks in his portfolio.
Lost Opportunity
However, this lacuna did not stop Rahul Gandhi from publically lambasting the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government for its ordinance to protect convicted MPs and MLAs to continue to be lawmakers even after conviction, without voting rights or salary. Rahul Gandhi, at a press conference in September 2013, termed it as "complete nonsense” and vetoed a decision that had been cleared by then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. News reports suggested that Singh offered to resign after this incident.
The Union government was then reeling under pressure from the Indian Against Corruption campaign on various corruption charges. Many Congress leaders saw Rahul Gandhi as their natural leader, and wanted him to take a larger role. As soon as Rahul Gandhi expressed his opposition to the ordinance, senior Congressmen who had earlier supported the ordinance backtracked. This was an opportune time for Rahul Gandhi to step up to the job. Since the party was in power, transition would have not faced hiccups. Rahul Gandhi could have breathed fresh air in UPA, which was sorely required. He may not have been able to take on the Narendra Modi juggernaut, but at least this would have established his authority over the party.
The office of the Prime Minister carries an aura and respect. Had he become Prime Minister, today even the BJP would not have been able to ridicule Rahul Gandhi the way it currently does. Today BJP leaders openly ridicule Rahul Gandhi; when was the last time they did so to a former Prime Minister from an opposition party?
Congress and Sonia Gandhi missed an opportunity in 2013, and it’s costing Rahul Gandhi and the grand old party now.
Amitabh Tiwari is a former corporate and investment banker-turned political strategist and commentator. Twitter: @politicalbaaba.
Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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