Viju Cherian
In the 2014 general election the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) won 37 of the 39 Lok Sabha seats in Tamil Nadu. Of the remaining two LS seats, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) secured one each. The Dravida Munnetra Kazharam (DMK) and the Congress were left high and dry.
So, if these three parties — the AIADMK, the BJP and the PMK — were to form an alliance it would appear to be a formidable one that could sweep the state.
On Tuesday, February 19, while announcing the return of the AIADMK into the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) Union minister Piyush Goyal expressed these sentiments when he said: “We are starting our campaign with full confidence and will sweep the state of Tamil Nadu as a mark of respect to honour Jayalalithaa.” Except that in 2019 the AIADMK-BJP-PMK combine looks less impressive than what it was in 2014.
In 2014, the AIADMK was a giant slayer — today it is a pale shadow of its former self. In 2014, the BJP was riding high on a Modi wave sweeping across the nation — today, we are yet to see such a wave. The PMK, after being denied a ministerial berth by the BJP in 2014, vowed to not join hands with the BJP. Today when it returns to the NDA fold, the opportunism is glaring.
Since 2016, after the demise of former Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa, the AIADMK has been plagued with factionalism and internecine battles. More importantly, the state government has failed to address a widespread sentiment that it has not been able to protect Tamil Nadu’s interests — be it on the NEET entrance exam, the Cauvery water dispute, the Sterlite plant protests, etc.
The redeeming factor in the NDA alliance in Tamil Nadu is the PMK. It has a strong vote base in northern Tamil Nadu and will be contesting from seven seats. Vijayakanth’s Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) and K Krishnasamy’s Puthiya Tamizhagam (PT) are likely NDA allies. With Vijaykanth unwell, it is doubtful if the DMDK will bring much to the NDA. If given the Tenkasi seat, Krishnasamy could win it for the NDA.
That the AIADMK, which won 37 seats in 2014, was ready to contest from only 25 this time reflects the dire straits it is in. In its present condition, 25 seats in itself looks like a big task for the party. Given this, the BJP has committed a mistake by aligning with a weak AIADMK. More than the BJP, it was the AIADMK that required the BJP’s support, especially because it is running a state government which has a wafer-thin majority and whose floor strength could be a matter of interpretation.
The BJP should have either fought the polls on its own, or, should have settled for an alliance with other parties (such as the PMK) excluding the AIADMK. Or, the BJP, instead of turning to the Edappadi K Palaniswami-O Panneerselvvam combine in the AIADMK, could have thought of aligning with Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) leader TTV Dhinakaran. By winning the RK Nagar bypolls and having a sizeable number of AIADMK MLAs with him, the AMMK leader has proved that he is no pushover. TTV has an extensive network among AIADMK’s local leadership, especially in southern Tamil Nadu, and this could spoil the AIADMK’s chances in this election.
Also, by joining hands with the AIADMK, the BJP has lost yet another opportunity to build the party in the Tamil Nadu.
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