The upcoming two-phase Bihar election, which will be held on November 6 and 11, is crucial for Chief Minister Nitish Kumar who is leading the NDA into what could be his most challenging contest.
The nine-time Bihar CM (74), an engineer by profession, has been heading the Bihar government for nearly two decades. During this period, he has alternated between the BJP-led NDA and RJD-led Mahagathbandhan.
After the NDA was formed in 1998, there have been four elections in Bihar — February 2005, October-November 2005, 2010, and 2020. Nitish has always been the chief ministerial face of the front. However, mounting anti-incumbency, health concerns and silent clamour for change portend that Nitish may well be fighting his last election this year. Here's why:
Growing anti-incumbency
Anti-incumbency against Nitish Kumar remains a significant factor.
After nearly two decades in power, fatigue is reportedly evident across sections of the electorate regarding the CM. His Odisha counterpart, former CM Naveen Patnaik, faced similar challenges before he lost the 2024 assembly election after being in power for over 24 years.
In a bid to counter it, the NDA government has been rolling out a series of direct cash benefit schemes recently to woo women and youth. However, this time, voters may judge whether his image of the “Vikas Purush” still holds or whether political fatigue and repeated flip-flops have eroded his mandate.
Health issues
Over the years, the CM has shown signs of fatigue and confusion, leading to unusual demeanour in various public events. As a result, opposition leaders, including RJD leader Tejaswhwi Yadav and Jan Suraaj chief Prashant Kishor (PK), have been questioning the CM’s ability to lead - questioning both his physical and mental faculties.
This week, Yadav posted a video showing Nitish at a virtual event which was also attended by PM Modi. The CM was seen sitting with folded hands for an extended period while another leader read out the programme details.
"Such incidents are continuously coming to light... Now, Nitish Kumar is no longer fit to run Bihar. Now his condition is not good. Some leaders are using his face to fill their own coffers. In the coming times, everyone's true colours will be revealed...,” said Yadav.
Kumar has also faced repeated questions about his mental capacity from other opposition leaders, many of whom have demanded that he step down.
One U-turn too many?
Nitish Kumar’s political career remains synonymous with flip-flops. Though switching loyalties between NDA and Grand Alliance has helped the JD(U) stalwart keep a firm grip on power for two decades, it has also eroded some of his political credibility over the years.
Moreover, JD(U)'s downslide in Bihar has also left Nitish more politically vulnerable than before. His party went from 115 seats in 2010 to 71 in 2015 to just 43 in 2020. It has also ceded more space to BJP, which has emerged as a dominant force in the state. All this leaves Nitish with little political fluidity than before.
PK factor
Bihar, which has always been dominated by two alliances, now has a new contestant. Political strategist-turned-neta Prashant Kishor on Monday announced that he will contest the upcoming Bihar Assembly elections. He has been campaigning in the state for three years.
Kishor has promised to lift Bihar's liquor prohibition if he comes to power. Speaking to Times Now, the Jan Suraaj founder called the liquor ban in the state "fake" and a source of massive loss for the state.
Kishor has been asserting Nitish Kumar would not return as Chief Minister after the polls.
“This will be Nitish Kumar’s last election. I can say with full confidence that he will not celebrate the next Makar Sankranti at 1 Anne Marg," he said while referring to the official CM residence in Patna.
He has also been criticising the CM for lack of infrastructure and corruption in the state.
Kishor calls the Nitish government the most corrupt administration in the state's history. Kishor told NDTV that the level of loot and corruption in government machinery today is unprecedented. He also accused Nitish Kumar and "almost all ministers" of being corrupt.
According to Kishor, Bihar’s leadership over the last 25 years has failed to address critical issues such as employment and infrastructure. This narrative, particularly aimed at young voters, may also hurt the CM’s prospects among youth.
Deletion of women voters
According to the Election Commission, 22.7 lakh female voters were removed from the electoral rolls, compared to 15.5 lakh male voters, during the recent Special Intensive Revision (SIR) exercise. This may not be good news for the CM as he has always enjoyed the support of women voters. It is believed to be one of the reasons for the NDA’s electoral success in the 2020 elections. It is also believed that the liquor ban helped Nitish Kumar strengthen his support among women voters.
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