Amid the twists and turns in Karnataka politics between Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and his bete noire and deputy, DK Shivakumar, the big question that remains unanswered is whether the Congress leadership would effect a leadership change ahead of the 2028 Karnataka Assembly election.
The Congress central leadership has stepped in saying it will intervene to broker peace between the two leaders. The caste math will also play a big role as the Congress brass takes its final call. For now though, the party brass appears to be hedging its risks – almost dragging its feet on this long-standing dispute.
The state’s political equations heavily rely on caste, with the Lingayats and Vokkaligas communities wielding significant influence despite Dalits, Muslims, and OBCs forming a large part of Karnataka’s population. Of Karnataka’s 23 chief ministers so far, 16 have been from the Lingayat and Vokkaliga communities.
What happened in the 2023 assembly election?
The Lingayat and the Vokkaliga community influenced seats played a huge role in the victory of Congress in Karnataka in 2023. According to post-poll data shared by CSDS and Axis My India, of the 70 Lingayat community influenced seats, Congress won 44, an increase of 23 seats since the last election. Meanwhile, of the 44 Vokkaliga community influenced seats, INC won 29.
The community-wise strike rate of Congress candidates was also the highest among Lingayats (75%), followed by Vokkaligas (52%), SC (58%), ST (88%), Muslim (60%), Brahmin (43%), Kuruba (67%), other OBC/MBC (44%) and others (46%).
Siddaramaiah presented the Socio-Economic Educational Survey Report 2015 (caste census) in the cabinet meeting on April 11. According to this census, Lingayat population was at a mere 65 lakh (10.9%) and Vokkaligas at 60 lakh (10%).
Vokkaliga-Ahinda caste battle
Shivakumar hails from the Vokkaliga community and was credited with directing a large chunk of those votes away from the JD(S) to the Congress pocket in 2023.
Also, Shivakumar has been backed by prominent seers who hold a sway over Karnataka politics. On Friday, prominent Vokkaliga spiritual leader Nanjavadutha Swamiji visited Shivakumar’s residence and openly backed him for the Chief Minister’s post.
Earlier in the week, Vokkaliga seer Nirmalanandanatha Swamiji also said it was both his personal view and the sentiment within the community that Shivakumar should be the next CM of Karnataka.
"In the 2023 Assembly polls, people from the community voted, hoping one among us would become CM. It didn’t happen then. There was hope it would happen after 2.5 years, but that too now seems unlikely. If it doesn’t happen, it will sadden thousands of devotees of Math," he said.
On the other hand, Ahinda, which refers to a multi-group voter base of minorities, backward classes, and Dalits, has consistently backed Siddaramaiah. It also helped him to circumvent the state's otherwise bi-polar caste landscape, the Vokkaliga-Lingayat divide. It has been one of the biggest reasons why the Congress brass has consistently backed Siddaramaiah over Shivakumar.
The Congress has also ensured earlier that Siddaramaiah’s national importance remains. The Congress gave him a key role in reviving the party’s support among Other Backward Classes (OBCs) across the country.
He has also been asked to lead the caste census in Karnataka. It is a politically sensitive task and shapes future Congress policies and power-sharing plans. Hence, the Congress may ensure Siddaramaiah remains the Karnataka CM.
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