Srinagar sees lowest voter turnout: 4 possible factors behind disengagement

In downtown Srinagar, once an epicentre of stone pelting, the streets were eerily deserted, evoking memories of curfew days. A heavy police presence loomed as groups of youth played cricket during the day, seemingly indifferent to the surrounding electoral atmosphere.

According to J&K’s Chief Electoral Officer PK Pole, Srinagar, traditionally a hotbed of separatism, has eight constituent assemblies that recorded a polling turnout of just 28.84%. The figures were later revised to 29.91%.

The Habbakadal area of the old city stood out for its particularly low engagement, recording a mere 19.81% voter participation, despite Kashmiri Pandits holding a significant share of the electorate in the constituency following the 2022 delimitation exercise.

Overall, voter turnout in Central Kashmir which includes Srinagar, Budgam and Ganderbal districts stood at 51.76%, reflecting a decline of about 6% compared to the last Assembly elections held a decade ago.

Several people told Moneycontrol that their reluctance to participate in the elections was a result of J&K’s status as a Union Territory, which diminishes the powers of the assembly. Many feel that elected representatives will be akin to “toothless tigers,” unable to bring about meaningful change or address pressing issues in the region, highlighting a deep disillusionment with the political process.

In the Habba Kadal constituency, Kousar, a young girl, told Moneycontrol that she stayed home on polling day. “I didn’t expect any major change after the abrogation of Article 370, J&K’s special status, so I chose not to vote,” she added.

Similarly, Showkat Ahmad, a 43-year-old private teacher in Lal Chowk, Srinagar’s commercial hub, termed the elections meaningless, arguing that people should not expect elected MLAs to change their fate or spark any revolution in J&K. “When elections are declared on 8 October, 90 individuals will be elected to the assembly merely to secure their jobs, but they won’t have any real impact because of their limited powers,” he said.

Under the current UT status, the elected Chief Minister in J&K will remain subordinate to the Lieutenant Governor (LG), with all major decisions and orders requiring LG approval. The recent amendments to the Transaction of Business Rules by the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) have further consolidated the LG's authority, including increased control over police matters, public order, All India Services, and key appointments such as the Advocate General.

These changes mean that even with a new chief minister, substantial jurisdictional power remains with the LG, limiting the effectiveness of the local government.

Despite no poll boycott call from any separatist or militant group this time, people in both downtown and uptown areas remain disenchanted with the electoral process. For example, 70-year-old Nazir Ahmad from the uptown Bemina area said that there is a sense of voter fatigue, and many people are reluctant to stand in long queues in the scorching heat.

The low voter turnout in Srinagar came as a surprise, particularly in contrast to other districts of Kashmir, where residents flocked to the polls in large numbers. Even separatist and Jamaat-e-Islami leaders, who had historically supported poll boycotts, contested in the ongoing elections to curb the influence of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

Noor Ahmad Baba, a political analyst and former political science professor at the University of Kashmir, has identified four critical factors contributing to the low voter turnout in Srinagar. “Firstly, urban areas typically have lower turnout rates compared to rural regions. Secondly, a lingering sentiment of election boycott persists in the downtown area of the city. Thirdly, the National Conference, as the oldest party in the region, seems to have successfully mobilised voters, while candidates from other parties have struggled to gain traction. Lastly, new candidates emerging from the Jamaat or Hurriyat lacked a strong local base and failed to inspire voters,” Baba told Moneycontrol.

National Conference Vice President and former J&K Chief Minister Omar Abdullah attributed the low voter turnout in Srinagar to the central government's comparisons of high poll percentages with claims of normalcy. “The turnout in the second phase was lower than anticipated. I believe it is the fault of the central government for linking high poll percentages to normalcy and suggesting it’s a result of the removal of Article 370. The low voter turnout in Srinagar is a reaction to that.”

Polling in Srinagar was conducted under the observation of a group of diplomats from 15 countries, including US Embassy Deputy Chief of Mission Jorgan Andrews and senior representatives from Mexico, South Africa, South Korea, Singapore, Nigeria, Spain, and Norway, who were accompanied by Ministry of External Affairs officials while visiting various polling stations.