Shivakumar vs Siddaramaiah: Five options before Congress High Command to stem the bickering

However, Congress top sources are of the view that 'no change of guard or cabinet reshuffle is expected before January–March.'

The same publication citing senior Congress insiders, reported that the 'final call' on the Karnataka leadership question now rests with Rahul Gandhi.

As the Congress brass seek clarity from both camps before the take a considered view on chief ministerial decision, they are also looking at other key governance issues --lapses in governance, delivery of promises, and is there any palpable resentment against the Congress government in the state.

With lot at stake for not only two individuals -- Shivakumar and Siddaramaiah, but also the Congress party, sources revealed to News 18, that the Congress leadership in Delhi will put multiple options before the two individuals when they are called to Delhi.

Option 1:

Both camps will be instructed to control their supporters, with gag orders issued until January. A final decision on cabinet reshuffle or leadership change may be discussed only after this cooling-off period. High command leaders are also worried that the ongoing SIR (state-wise review) exercise is being disrupted by the Karnataka power struggle.

Option 2:

A closed-door meeting will be held after hearing both sides, with a decision expected only after the budget in March. Until then, both Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar may be asked to demonstrate their support in terms of MLA numbers.

Option 3:

No transfer of power for now. But Siddaramaiah must agree that the planning, execution, campaign strategy and leadership for the 2028 elections will be handled by Shivakumar. The election would be fought with DKS projected as the face, with no other CM aspirant — including Satish Jarkiholi, Dr G Parameshwara, HC Mahadevappa or Eshwar Khandre among others — be allowed to enter the race.

Option 4:

Kharge’s rising national profile as a Dalit leader is being highlighted. Some senior Congressmen argue that having Kharge continue as AICC chief strengthens the party across India, as he is one of the few southern leaders who can speak Hindi fluently — the last being PV Narasimha Rao. This has helped connect with the people across the country . A leadership shift in Karnataka may undermine this momentum, it is being said.

Option 5:

A complete exchange of positions — Kharge as CM of Karnataka, and Siddaramaiah moving to Delhi as Leader of the Opposition in the Rajya Sabha. Siddaramaiah has repeatedly said he has “no interest in Delhi," but sources say the high command may still present this as an option to end the deadlock.

The genesis of the prevailing crisis

The “2.5-year formula” at the heart of the Congress government's leadership crisis in Karnataka has never officially been confirmed by the party's “high command”, but it remains a regular feature in its feuds.

A similar crisis took shape in the then Congress government in Rajasthan in 2020 — fundamentally a power struggle between CM Ashok Gehlot, who was close to 70 years of age, and his then deputy Sachin Pilot, who was barely 45.

Kharge as compromise CM?

News 18 quoting a section of leaders close to the Congress president, reported that a small group has begun floating Mallikarjun Kharge's name as a compromise option if the standoff becomes unmanageable.

Kharge, a prominent Dalit face nationally, is also said to be weighing whether stepping into Karnataka politics could help the party consolidate its support base — or whether to continue his current position as AICC president.

Differences within Congress brass?

There are reports that high command’s core decision-making circle of six, Sonia Gandhi, Priyanka Gandhi and Randeep Singh Surjewala are said to be inclined and agreeable towards making DK Shivakumar the CM.

However, Rahul Gandhi and KC Venugopal, favour allowing Siddaramaiah to continue for the full term. The swing vote lies with Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge, who sources describe as “undecided" — and also personally invested.