Axis My India's exit poll results stood apart from most pollsters, going against the tide to predict a landslide victory for the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha-Congress alliance, with the INDIA bloc projected to win 53 seats.
However, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is predicted to secure victory, with a poll of polls estimating 42-53 seats for the alliance.
Pradeep Gupta of Axis My India recently ended his association with the India Today during the Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir election results last month.
Speaking to News-18, Pradeep Gupta, the renowned psephologist laid out four factors justifying his prediction:
1. Tribal Identity- Gupta reasoned that the tribal identity in the state is very different from other states that don't vote in certain intrinsic factors.
2. Rise of Tiger Jairam Mahto-- a decisive factor in garnering votes of Kudmi Mahto community. Jairam’s Kudmi caste comprises 15 per cent population in the state. The Kudmi caste is considered to be the most influential after the tribals, who comprise 26 per cent of the population in Jharkhand.
3. A significant Muslim population- The psephologist reasoned that a high percentage of Muslim population will be more inclined to vote for the JMM-led INDIA block.
4. The impact of Jharkhand Mukhyamantri Maiya Samman Yojana- The JMM-led INDIA alliance is banking on its electoral strategy—Maiya Samman Yojna (JMMSY). Meanwhile, the BJP aims to counter it with its GoGo Didi scheme, which promises financial support of Rs 2,100 per month.
What most pollsters have predicted:
According to the Matrize exit poll, the NDA is likely to get between 42-47 seats while the JMM-Congress-RJD coalition is expected to win around 25-30 with others clinching between one to four seats.
As per the Times Now exit poll, BJP is expected to win 40-44 seats in the state, while the JMM coalition is likely to win 30-40 seats.
The People’s Pulse exit poll too gave the edge to the NDA, predicting 44-53 seats for the NDA with the JMM coalition behind at 25- 37. The others are expected to clinch five to nine seats.
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