Jammu and Kashmir is likely headed for a hung assembly yet again as at least two exit polls have given no clear majority to any party in the Union Territory. One exit has given a majority to the NC-Congress alliance.
According to exit polls, the National Conference-Congress alliance may emerge as the single largest group in the Valley.
What do exit polls predict?
According to People's pulse, the BJP may win 23 -27 seats while the Congress-NC may bag around 50. The PDP is expected to win 7-11 seats and others may bag around six seats.
Meanwhile, the Dainik Bhaskar exit poll predicted that the BJP would win 20-25 seats while the Congress and NC alliance would bag 35-40 seats. It predicted that the PDP would win 4-7 seats and others would win 12-16 seats.
According to the India Today-C Voter pollster, the BJP is expected to secure the highest vote share of 41 per cent, with 27-31 seats in the Jammu region. This is followed by the NC-Congress alliance at 37 per cent (11-15 seats) and the PDP with 4 per cent vote share (0-2 seats).
The Gulistan exit poll predicted a closer contest with 31-36 seats for the NC-Congress combine and 28-30 seats for the BJP.
It also indicates a ‘kingmaker’ role for independent candidates who may end up with 19-23 seats and the PDP left with 5-7.
The assembly elections, which were held over three phases on September 18, September 25 and October 1, were conducted after a gap of 10 years.
The first phase saw a voter turnout of 61.38% while the second phase saw a turnout of 57.31%.
The third and final phase saw 65.48% voting till 5pm on October 1. The final figures are expected later.
The election in J&K assumed significance as it was the first since the dilution of Article 370 in August 2019, which bifurcated the former state into the Union Territories of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh.
According to the J&K CEO office, there were more than 39.18 lakh eligible voters in the final phase. “Poll percentage in first phase (covering 24 constituencies on September 18) was 61.38 percent, in second phase (covering 26 segments on September 25) it was 57.31 percent and in last third phase (covering 40 seats) poll percentage is 68.72 percent (tentative). Overall poll percentage comes to 63.45 percent (tentative),” the statement said.
Looking back at 2014
In the 2014 assembly polls, exit polls had correctly predicted a hung assembly in the erstwhile state.
No party managed to secure the majority in the 90-member assembly in 2014. The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) emerged as the single largest party, winning 28 seats followed by Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) which secured 25 seats.
The Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (NC) won 15 seats while the Congress bagged 12.
The BJP and PDP formed a coalition government, which collapsed in 2018 when the saffron party withdrew its support to Mehbooba Mufti's party.
Counting of votes of 90 assembly segments across J&K will take place on October 8.
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