India withdraws from Ayni airbase in Tajikistan: What it means and how it impacts New Delhi's strategic edge

Located near Dushanbe, Tajikistan's capital, the Ayni airbase was built during the Soviet era. However, it  fell into disrepair after the USSR's collapse and India charge of its renovation under a 2002 bilateral agreement. India reportedly invested around $80 million to modernise the base.

According to The Print, around 2001-2002, “radical thinkers” in the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) and the security establishment proposed to develop and upgrade the Gissar Military Aerodrome (GMA), popularly known as the Ayni airbase.

The upgrades included strengthening and lengthening the runway so that it could accommodate combat jets and heavy lift aircraft.

Why is Ayni significant for India?

India does not have a functional overseas military base in any other country.

Any overseas military base is vital for any country. It offers access not just to the country it is in, but also to the neighbouring region. The Ayni airbase was used by by India to pull out its nationals and officials from Afghanistan after the Taliban assumed control of the country in August 2021.

The only times India has briefly operated bases outside its borders were during wartime or peacekeeping interventions. In 1971, during the Bangladesh Liberation War, Indian forces temporarily used a couple of bases in Dhaka before quickly winding them up. Again, during the Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF) mission in Sri Lanka, temporary installations were vacated once the operation ended.

Withdrawal from Ayni airbase may impact India, particularly because of its proximity to the Wakhan corridor. This corridor is of geopolitical interest to both China and Pakistan for security reasons and for trade.

How will India be impacted?

If India had still been operating from Ayni during operations like Sindhu, it could have leveraged the base for greater strategic advantage.  According to ThePrint, India could target Peshawar from Tajikistan. It would have forced Pakistan to shift assets from its eastern borders to the west, weakening its direct front with India.

Moreover, the Ayni withdrawal underscores gaps in India’s strategic planning.

The Ayni airbase also helped India boost its influence in Central Asia.

According to a report by  Newsweek, Andrea Stauder, senior analyst at BISI, wrote in a July analysis on Tajikistan’s regional importance, “While Russia and China remain dominant, India has an opportunity to expand its role beyond security into economic engagement.”