Locked in what almost certainly was a battle for the existence, the Aam Aadmi Party and its national convener Arvind Kejriwal appear to be headed for tough times with most exit polls predicting a victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party in the national capital.
On its part, the AAP has dismissed the exit poll findings claiming that the true picture will be starkly different once the Election Commission of India declares the official results on February 8.
However, if the exit polls hold true, the impact of the results (if in line with the exit poll projections) will be far and wide. Delhi has been AAP's crown jewel since its inception a little over a decade ago. Though not a full-fledged state, the optics of being in power in Delhi is what powered the AAP to a victory in Punjab and position itself as a national party -- even as an alternative to the Congress.
A defeat in Delhi could thus have repercussions beyond the capital. The politics of Delhi also has an impact on heartland states and the impact could be visible in neighbouring states like Punjab, Haryana, and beyond.
A result on the lines of the exit polls will also deal a huge setback to Kejriwal who has positioned himself as a crusader and claimed that the corruption charges against him were a conspiracy to derail the good work done by his government for the people of Delhi.
However, a defeat would also allow the BJP to paint Kejriwal as a non-performer and lay all the blame for polluted Yamuna and a crumbling infrastructure to his government's constant skirmishes with the Lieutenant Governor.
A result on these lines could also blemish his own reputation as an anti-corruption poster boy and also make his return to power far more challenging. Ever since its formation, the AAP has only been in power in Delhi and does not have the political experience to withstand the challenges of an Opposition, especially with the litany of cases against the top rung of its leadership.
Most crucially, a situation akin to what the exit polls have projected could leave the party unit floundering given the legal challenges faced by its top leaders. Within the Opposition too, the AAP would lose its standing and its dreams of emerging as a possible national alternative to the Congress could be dealt a severe setback.
Delhi Exit Poll predictions:
Chanakya Strategies
BJP- 39-44
AAP- 25-28
Congress - 2-3
DV Research
BJP 36-44
AAP 26-34
People's Insight
AAP- 25-29
BJP – 40-44
Congress – 0-1
Others – Nil
Peoples Pulse & Codemo
BJP: 51-60
AAP: 19-19
JVC Polls
BJP - 39-45
AAP- 22-31
Congress- 0-2
Others - 0-1
Republic-PMARQ
BJP- 49
AAP - 21-31
Congress - 0-1
Others - Nil
Republic-Matrize
BJP- 35-40
AAP - 32-37
Congress - 0-1
Others - Nil
WeePreside
AAP - 46-52
BJP- 18-23
Cong - 0-1
Note of caution: Exit polls are only indications and have gone wrong earlier too. The official results will only be declared on February 8 by the Election Commission of India after the counting of votes.
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