In the last year of Narendra Modi’s second term, the BJP is fulfilling its promise of 33 percent women’s reservation in Parliament and legislative bodies, in a bid to woo the all-important female votebank ahead of the general elections next year. A war for taking credit has intensified between the BJP and Congress with the grand old party terming it as Rajiv Gandhi’s original idea dating back to 1989.
Women have been voting for BJP, in larger numbers than men, 46 percent versus 44 percent as per Axis-MyIndia. Various schemes for women like PM Awas Ujjwala Yojana, Matru Vandana Yojana, Beti Bachao Beti Padhao have helped BJP gain traction among the women votebank. The turnout of the women voters was higher than men by 0.17 percent for the first time in history in the 2019 general elections.
Women-Rise In Politics
Women are increasingly making independent voting decisions due to improvement in literacy and awareness levels. They have needs, issues, aspirations and demands which are different from men. They are also believed to be voting, rising above caste identities.
In UP, they backed the BJP (48 percent versus 32 percent for SP+) on account of an improved law and order situation while in Karnataka they backed the Congress (44 percent vs 33 percent for BJP) on account of its guarantees for the poor as per Axis My India exit polls.
There are 13 states and UTs where women electors outnumber men: Kerala, Andhra, Tamil Nadu, Bihar, Goa, Uttarakhand, Arunachal, Puducherry, Daman & Diu, Mizoram, Meghalaya, Lakshadweep and Mizoram. These states account for 141 seats accounting for 26 percent of Lok Sabha strength.
The support for BJP amongst women has increased from 22 percent in 2004 to 36 percent in 2019, while it has declined from 27 percent to 20 percent for Congress during the same period according to CSDS. The lead which BJP enjoys over Congress amongst the women is 16 percentage points, translating to roughly 8 percent vote share.
Data shows that women MPs account for nearly 15 percent of Lok Sabha strength while their representation is below 10 per cent in many state assemblies. India has a poor record amongst peer countries when it comes to women representation in national lawmaking bodies: The UK has 35 percent, China 27 percent, USA 29 percent, Russia 16 percent, Brazil 17 percent and South Africa 46 percent.
Questions About Implementation
The implementation date for the law is not clear as it will kick in only after the completion of the delimitation exercise based on the first Census conducted after the passage of the Bill. This means it can’t be implemented in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, and best case scenario is 2029 general elections.
There are two variables in this puzzle: Census and Delimitation. The 2021 census has yet not taken place due to COVID. The current interstate delimitation of constituencies is in force till 2026. A new delimitation which is likely to result in 888 MPs in Lok Sabha can take place only on the basis of the first Census conducted after the year 2026.
It seems that the BJP government, if it comes to power, could push the Census to after 2026 so that the twin objectives of women reservation and a new Lok Sabha structure based on current population can be instituted by the 2029 general elections.
Congress alleges that the Bill is very similar to the legislation passed by the Rajya Sabha under UPA 2.0. However Congress party’s bill called for immediate reservation while BJP can be said to be touching the emotions of women and straying into the realm of votebank politics.
Roadblocks Ahead
The Opposition is attempting to paint the bill as anti-backward, demanding a sub-quota for OBC women. The opposition is already trying to make caste census an election issue to divide the OBC vote and if this narrative works then it could portend trouble for the BJP. Other parties like AIMIM have demanded a sub quota for Muslim and termed the bill as anti-minority.
The previous trajectory of the women reservation bill shows that the implementation could face hurdles and could be blocked again by those with patriarchal interests and caste interests in mind.
What if there is a change of government as many parties who have opposed it earlier are part of the INDIA bloc? What if the Census date is pushed further? What if a delimitation doesn’t take place immediately after the Census?
Could it prove to be a masterstroke for Modi in 2024? Or would it be seen just as an election ploy to target the women voters? Only time will tell.
Amitabh Tiwari is a former corporate and investment banker-turned political strategist and commentator. Twitter: @politicalbaaba. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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