7 big takeaways from J&K assembly election results

This election also marks the return of an elected government after five years, following the revocation of Article 370, which stripped the region of its special status and statehood in August 2019.

The J&K National Conference secured 42 seats, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won 29, the Congress claimed 6, and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) took 3. The J&K Peoples Conference, Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)), and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) each won 1 seat, while 7 seats were captured by Independent candidates.

Here are seven takeaways:

1. BJP secured a total of 29 seats in Jammu, posting its best-ever performance in the region as well as the entire UT. The BJP excelled in districts with predominantly Hindu populations, exceeding its previous record of 25 seats from the 2014 elections. The only setback for BJP was the loss of Ravinder Raina, its J&K chief. Raina lost the Nowshera constituency in Rajouri district by over 7,000 votes to Surinder Choudhary of the NC.

2. BJP's so-called proxies in Kashmir suffered big losses. For instance, Altaf Bukhari’s Apni Party and Ghulam Nabi Azad-led Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP) failed to secure a single seat in both Kashmir and Jammu. Following the abrogation of Article 370, candidates associated with the BJP found the elections challenging, as evidenced by J&K Peoples Conference chairman Sajad Lone who once referred to Prime Minister Narendra Modi as his elder brother—losing one of the two seats he contested.

3. Independent candidates, previously referred to as the “X” factor in J&K, struggled in the elections, with only seven out of 346 securing a win, while 339 failed. Many in the Valley, including political analysts, had predicted a hung assembly in J&K, with the Congress-NC alliance expected to have an edge over the BJP, while independent candidates were expected to serve as crucial “kingmakers”. However, voters in Kashmir were concerned that independent candidates might switch allegiance to the BJP if elected, leading to defeats for many of them in the majority of assembly segments.

4. Mehbooba Mufti's PDP has lost its influence, even in south Kashmir, once its stronghold. Even Iltija Mehbooba, daughter of Mehbooba Mufti, faced a defeat in the Srigufwara-Bijbehara constituency. The party founded by former Union Minister Mufti Mohammad Sayeed in 1999 has only secured three out of 90 seats. PDP, according to analysts, is still reeling from the fallout of its controversial alliances in 2015 and 2016 with the ideologically opposed BJP, and its justifications of civilian killings and pellet gun violence in 2016 civil unrest following the death of Hizbul Mujahideen commander Burhan Wani.

5. The BJP, which emerged as the second largest party in J&K, did not make much of an impact in Kashmir yet again. The results highlighted that a strong anti-BJP sentiment persists in the Valley, with voters favouring candidates from regional parties and the Congress instead.

6. For the first time, the Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP has made a breakthrough in Jammu and Kashmir by winning the Doda assembly constituency, with AAP candidate Mehraj Malik defeating BJP's Gajay Singh Rana. Known for his fiery speeches and outspoken approach, Malik campaigned vigorously, challenging the BJP, Congress, and NC.

7. The election results in the Kashmir Valley also indicate a strong rejection of the Engineer Rashid-led Awami Ittehad Party (AIP), which struggled to make an impact. Blamed by the NC and PDP for its ties to the BJP, the AIP secured only one seat out of 44 contested. Despite being released from Delhi's Tihar Jail last month after five years, Rashid was unable to translate the large crowds at his rallies into voter support.