18 MLAs disqualification case verdict today: Fate of AIADMK govt hangs in balance

Possible impact

The court's decision is likely to have widespread ramifications on politics in Tamil Nadu. A favourable verdict for the Dhinakaran camp could leave the AIADMK government on shaky grounds.

If the court finds the disqualification to be illegal, AIADMK's numerical strength in the Assembly could fall short of the magic number (halfway mark + 1) 117.

The strength of the Tamil Nadu Assembly is currently truncated because of a couple of vacant seats, which have been vacant since the deaths of former chief minister and Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) patriarch M Karunanidhi and AIADMK MLA AK Bose.

However, if the High Court judges that the Speaker's decision of disqualifying the MLAs was legal, the state would witness by-elections in those 18 constituencies.

CR Saraswathi, spokesperson of the Dhinakaran faction, had told Moneycontrol earlier: "We are waiting for the judgement. If the verdict goes against us and the Speaker’s decision to disqualify the MLAs is upheld, we will lose men. However, if the verdict is in our favour, we will seek a floor test."

"As it is, they (AIADMK) are running a minority government," Saraswathi said.

"We are fighting against this government. We are ready for polls and we will beat them. We know the people’s pulse," she added.

Also read | Aftermath of Karunanidhi, Jayalalithaa's demise: Open season in Tamil Nadu politics

What is the case about?

The issue came to the fore after VK Sasikala's nephew Dhinakaran in August 2017 threatened to pull down the state government with the support of 18 MLAs.

Sasikala was a close aide of former Tamil Nadu chief minister and AIADMK chief J Jayalalithaa.

The MLAs had met the then-Tamil Nadu Governor Chennamaneni Vidyasagar Rao, expressing their dissatisfaction with Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami, and saying they were withdrawing their support to the government.

In September, Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly Speaker P Dhanapal had expelled 18 MLAs under the 10th Schedule of the Constitution, known as the anti-defection law.

In June, a two-judge bench of the Madras High Court, comprising of Chief Justice Indira Banerjee and Justice M Sundar had delivered a split verdict in the case. While Justice Sundar had allowed the petition filed by the 18 MLAs against their disqualification, Chief Justice Banerjee dismissed it.

Chief Justice Banerjee had noted that the "view taken by the Speaker is a possible, if not plausible view, and I am unable to hold that the said decision is in any way unreasonable, irrational or perverse."

Justice M Sundar had disagreed with the chief justice on four grounds, including perversity and violation of Constitutional mandate.

Sasikala had installed her nephew Dhinakaran as the AIADMK's Deputy General Secretary after she was sentenced to imprisonment in the disqualification case. Dhinakaran was side-lined from the party when the factions loyal to Palaniswami and former chief minister O Panneerselvam merged.

After winning the RK Nagar bypolls, which was Jayalalithaa’s constituency earlier, Dhinakaran formed his own political outfit called the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK).