Here is why SP Tulsian is bullish on TVS Motor

In an interview with CNBC-TV18, SP Tulsian, sptulsian.com, shares his views on public sector banks (PSB), Tata Motors after the decline in Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) sales in the US, and certain other important stocks of the day.Below is the verbatim transcript of SP Tulsian interview with Sonia Shenoy and Anuj Singhal on CNBC-TV18.Sonia: One of the stocks of the day has been Tata Motors post that fall that we have seen in the JLR US sales. What will you do with the stock now considering that it has been quite steady state, but now the stock has fallen quite a bit today?A: Probably, Tata Motors wanted a trigger for profit booking because if you have seen it having moved one-sided and probably now people will wait till middle of the month because we get the data of the JLR by 13-14 of the month, so market will wait for that data to come and again will take a call, but that may be in the interim profit booking can make the stock to fall further by about 4-5 percent from here because people have been getting a good amount of profits in the stock having seen in this last couple of months.Anuj: The Adani groups of stocks, Adani Ports in particular 12 percent lower, clearly is not just the number issue, the market is nervous about something else. What’s your call now after the big intraday decline?A: I agree that market may be having some other problems which are not coming out as of now. We may talk anything of the derivative gains or may be inter-corporate deposits having shifted or may be the SEZ inclusion in the account and all that, but if you go by the core business, I don’t think there is any kind of complaint, but it’s very difficult to take a call and more specially on the guidance, the kind of guidance they have in fact given for FY17, I was quite impressed with those numbers, so it is difficult to take a call that what is really happening in the stock and what could be the reason. Sonia: Do you track this stock and would you have any recommendations at Rs 121?A: Yes, Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilisers & Chemicals Limited (GNFC) posted good numbers and that is largely because of the fertiliser division, because if you see they have the feedstock as naphtha and fuel oil and because of the lower prices of the crude they have started making profit. Otherwise, if you go by the track record of GNFC they have never made any profits in the fertiliser division, so as long as, but actually once the crude has started hardening, I have my cautious view, but one can have a look on the Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals Limited (GSFC) because that company has not come out with the numbers and GSFC has a higher proportion of the complex fertiliser also apart from urea. So on a relative basis, probably GSFC looks better than GNFC after GNFC seen having run up quite a lot.Anuj: Any first thoughts on Adani Enterprises?A: It’s a flat results because if you really see the things as you have rightly analyse that interest cost has gone up, there is an exceptional loss of Rs 75 crore, but because of the lower tax liability, I don’t think any kicker is seen on any of the segments, if you really take either trading or agro or may be mining or may be city gas. I don’t think that any segments are seen giving a kicker for this quarter, so one can say that it’s not a big disappointment, but it’s kind of a flat result from the company.Anuj: I know you are no fan of public sector undertaking (PSU) banks. In fact you were saying that Q4 will be a disaster. But have you looked at Indian Overseas Bank (IOB)?A: Similar is the case with IOB also because if you see the asset quality that is the worst amongst all the PSU banks. So, I don't think there is any reason to single out any PSU bank till we see the numbers from Q4 from all of the banks.Anuj: If you were to keep a set of stocks ready that you will buy if they correct more in the frontline space what would the list be?A: Yesterday we have discussed on TVS Motor and I said that maybe Rs 285 looks - maybe after that the stock has corrected to Rs 280 but I don't think now this warrants further correction, maybe the counter is also under owned because yesterday we saw good amount of selling. So, that looks like a good stock, maybe TVS Motor at around a level of Rs 288-289 at which it has to be rolling.Secondly from May 10 you will start seeing the flow of the UP based sugar mills starts coming in. We have seen the effect of Parrys Sugar which is a Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh based sugar mill and that stock has been hitting upper circuit for last three days, no doubt the upper circuit is just of about five percent. So, that could be again one space or one sector where you will see between May 10 to May 20 to about six or seven UP based sugar mills starts giving you the results.Third could be the SRF because we have seen the numbers, very good numbers from Navin Fluorine and SRF is also in the same space. One can expect an EPS of closer to 20 or 21 for Q4 while FY16 EPS can be at about Rs 75 or so and even going forward things are looking good for SRF and then again I have recommended earlier also a couple of weeks back of about Bharat Bijlee which is now due to declare their results on May 12 and again power transmission space is doing really very well and they are the leading makers of transformer and that space is doing quite well. So, these are the few ideas which one can keep an eye on for maybe next week to 10 days to see some good gains.Sonia: Any quick thoughts on Orient Cement if you track it?A: Looking to the 10 million tonne capacity you sometimes feel that if you don't have the master or some person in command I am not at all impressed with this kind of move and on top of it the company has been talking of acquisitions. They have already entered into a deal with Reliance Infra or Reliance Cement to acquire now again the talk with Lafarge. This company seems to be very lack lustre kind of things in spite of having a debt of just about Rs 700-800 crore. If they have these kind of performance I don't know what is the logic of going for acquisitions. In fact for all nine months of the company if you see it has been seeing the deterioration. But at least for Q4 with 10 million tonne of capacity you are expecting that the company should show some good numbers but really it is a big disappointment.