Here are some trading ideas from SP Tulsian

If you really take a call on Mumbai city, maybe up to Sion, Bandra, or Mahim, I have not seen much activity seen really improving or happening. However, in the low ticket size, the flats in Mumbai, below the level of Rs 1 crore for anywhere in the western suburbs or maybe the outer periphery of Mumbai market or MMRDA, things are seen improving there, number one.

Number two, in tier-II and tier-III cities, we have been seeing a huge demand coming in because the prices have reduced and the kind of development and the kind of amenities which are being offered in those pockets also -- you have mentioned the name of Sobha, but there are many developers, those who have been quite active in those spaces.

If you talk of Pune or maybe in Karnataka or maybe in Tamil Nadu or maybe in Gujarat like Rajkot, Ahmedabad, Jamnagar kind of things in the city or maybe Surat, Baroda, things are seen on an improvement because the ticket size per square feet on a saleable area basis is still at around Rs 2,000-2,500.

The kind of standard operating procedures (SOP) which we have been seeing being given by the government to the developers as well as to the borrower, they are also quite encouraging. So, overall things are looking quite robust for the housing sector in the tier-II, tier-III cities. For the time being, things are not seen, that improvement in Mumbai city, more specially in the city, so overall one can keep a positive view.

However, if you want to be selective, one should avoid casing the momentum, the kind of run-up which we have seen in Sobha apart from the upper circuit seen today, the stock has also run up in the last maybe couple of weeks maybe by about 30-40 percent including rise of 20 percent today. So, maybe the other developers having capability and good presence in tier-II, tier-III cities can definitely be looked into.

Anuj: The other stock that I wanted to discuss with you is Titan, up 7 percent right now.

A: In the morning I have said that I will not be keeping a positive view though the guidance has been very good that yes, Q4 numbers will be seen quite robust from the company. However, if you take the change, this is my perception, I may be wrong, the change in the business strategy of the company that they are exiting from the gold and only going for the diamond jewellery and when you talk to the people in the industry, the buyers are now finding it very expensive on a relative basis, the differential, if you buy from there. Because in diamonds, still people look for the price also apart from the definitely transparency in respect to the diamond valuations, karat or maybe the quality and all sort of things.

So, I do not know that how far that model will really succeed, whether that growth can really be seen sustainable going forward and whether people will be making the allocations, buying more on the jewellery because the kind of low interest which we have been seeing in the young generation also, they are not very fond of buying the jewellery because they have the other priorities of spending money on the other things like maybe automobiles or maybe like housing and all that. So I am keeping my not so positive stance and I will be using any rise in Titan as a profit booking opportunity.

Anuj: Any thoughts on Gujarat Pipavav Port? I know you like Adani Ports, but incremental thoughts on these two stocks?

A: Two or three things first for Gujarat Pipavav because if you see the valuations have been very rich, because if you take the call on the stock, the earnings per share (EPS) of about Rs 5-5.5 and if I take the cash profit, port has been making cash profit of sub-Rs 100 crore per quarter. That means they are making cash profit of maybe about sub-Rs 400 crore.

If you see the market cap of Rs 8,000-8,500 crore, the only saving grace is that apart from 43-44 percent the promoters which are owning, about more than 50 percent is the institutional holding and that is why, in fact, you see the stagnation in the share price also. If you plot the working of the company, maybe for the last 12 quarters, probably you will find them flat that nothing has really been seen.

Suppose take for instance if there are appetite even by the Adani Group, they will definitely be very keen to have their presence on the western front and more specially in Gujarat. If you say that the Adani’s will really be keen to acquire it, I have my doubts on the valuations whether they will really be able to offer the kind of valuations which will be asked by the promoters which in my view will not be more than current market price.

I am not saying that company is bad. They have the port at Pipavav. In fact this is the port which Nikhil Gandhi has carved out and sold the company before taking up this Pipavav Defence. So, definitely the asset is very good but it seems to be pricey at this moment. So, I will not be taking a positive call merely on the news or speculation that promoters are looking to acquire and that can see as a value accretion trigger for the stock.

Anuj: You have provided a lot of multi-baggers in this period when the market has moved up or has moved from 30,000 to 24,000 now back to 30,000. What is your sense? Do you think this broader market party in India is going to continue in the midcaps and the smallcaps over the next many years?

A: If you are taking a daily view or maybe weekly, monthly view, then probably you will be having disappointment. However, yes, if you see the situation emerging for India, including political, in fact, there are many events lined up which can really see the growth sustaining or maybe growing even much higher from here on. Maybe like goods and service tax (GST) the kind of growth which we will be seeing, the addition to the gross domestic product (GDP), that can add about 1-1.5 percent.

Second, I have been saying that the kind of competition which we have been seeing among the states to go for investments because now, everywhere, everyone wants the development and employment and for that all the states have really pulled up their socks to go for the higher investments. The state growth can contribute another 1-1.5 percent to the GDP.

So, if you take a little longer call, maybe by 2020, we should be able to see the double digit GDP and we will be way ahead because if you see China probably they will be sulking below 6 percent. I will not be surprised to see that happening in 2018 as well, the kind of closer on the chemical, steel plants that we have been seeing. So, I am keeping a very positive view.

In fact, there is no point if I just say that, you have mentioned that you are eagerly looking for a level of 1,00,000 on Sensex, then if you want to ask me to throw a dart, then probably I will say 2025 could be the year in which we will see the Sensex moving to 1,00,000. However, coming on a serious note, I am expecting 15 percent growth for the Sensex to be seen in this financial year. I will not be surprised to see the Nifty at a level of 10,500 and Sensex at 34,000 plus.

However, you can definitely, if the index can give you a gain of about 15 percent, I think by doing an exercise of the stock identification, one can safely look for a return of about anywhere between 24-30 percent on a total portfolio. So, I think that you have a very good rewarding time and probably that is what has been understood by the Indian people or the Indian investor that there are no other alternatives. If you go for the bank deposits, you get 6 percent interest on which you pay the taxes also. You do not have any other revenue.

So, I am keeping my positive stance on the Indian stock market for the next 3-5 years except I will not say that you will not be having some kind of weaknesses. Maybe if the bad monsoon is there, that bad monsoon may have the toll for about a couple of weeks on the market. However, again, when the market corrects, it will get lapped by the quality investors again at the lower level what we have seen during the demonetisation time.

Anuj: We have the policy tomorrow, the Bank Nifty has done remarkably well, do you think regardless of what happens in the policy, the Bank Nifty will move up?

A: Yes, I am expecting so. In fact, if you see the Bank Nifty, it has closed at a high point with the March final expiry and we have started this series with a discount of about 100 points which was because of the expiry management having seen for the March series. Actually for this one week, because of the weekly expiry which also coincides with the policy tomorrow, I am expecting that probably this weakness is only limited for this week.

Next week's expiry, I am expecting it to happen on a very positive note because if you really see the kind of momentum which we have been seeing in the private sector banks, are all likely to continue with the renewed buying coming in after this RBI policy meet.