In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Prakash Diwan, director, Altamount Capital Management shares his views on the market and his preferred bets going ahead.
According to Diwan, stocks like Hotel Leela and Indian Hotels are likely to do well now given the government is taking initiative to boost the tourism industry.
Among midcaps, Diwan is bullish on ITD Cementation, NCC and Everest Industries. Below is the transcript of Prakash Diwan’s interview with Sonia Shenoy and Anuj Singhal on CNBC-TV18.
Sonia: It has been a week of profit taking, if you look at the midcap space particularly. Anything that you would buy or sell now, anything that looks attractive to you or something that you would want to just take a day or two day trade on?
A: It is fairly natural and understandable that post the results and event of the monetary policy through, profit booking is kind of something you had in order. However, the midcap space is also seeing a lot of churn, the volumes out there have been phenomenal last couple of days and then I think what is happening is people are looking out for news ideas desperately where there could be some justification on valuations.
I think the hotel industry is what comes to my mind; it has not yet participated in this whole hype that is kind of expanding in the market with a lot of new tourism activities coming up. If you look at the way Indian Hotels has moved out in the recent past which has kind of had a huge consolidation at Rs 105-107 zone and after that it has moved to this Rs 125 kind of levels. I think that is an extremely promising trade that you could look at.
The other pocket is chemicals, I talked about it a few days back and that is also a big beneficiary on the crude meltdown and that is an area where you could search some very great ideas coming up as well.
Anuj: A word on ITC that is really been the one stock which has kept the market where it is for last couple of days?A: Very clearly it is playing catch up the governments intend to regulate this area of a tobacco usage has been over hyped of sorts. I do not think the government yet has mustered to do something of which could be very draconian of sorts and my stance is ITC will continue to diversify very rapidly into other revenue streams and not just depend on the cigarettes business in such a way that it gets vulnerable.I understand 45-48 percent of its contribution still comes from that segment but over a period of time it will start competing heavily with the other players and it is other fast moving consumer goods (FMCGs) that needs to watch out. My stance is ITC has yet got its momentum intact and it could still move about 15-20 percent in the next six months.
Sonia: The biggest gainers this week interestingly are Jindal Steel & Power (JSPL) and DLF. Not exactly great fundamental stories here but technically I guess there was short covering that you saw in these names. Would you back any of these stocks for a shorter term trade? A: Not really, the only reason I see a little bit of a come back that could happen within the steel sector is where JSPL could benefit. However DLF is absolutely an avoid even if technically it has started looking very promising and all. The only reason why I believe that steel could benefit is it is very much one of the fastest turning around cyclical segments and the moment the demand cycle starts picking up you could see a lot of players especially the ones who are into specialty steel like JSPL who have integrated themselves quite well benefit out of that. So, it is a little bit of a wait though, another quarter or two maybe, but that is one promising pocket along with cement and all which could turnaround. However, DLF is absolutely an avoid.
Anuj: What about some of these high flyers like JBF Industries if you have tracked some of these stocks? It is up about 25 percent this week.A: Crude beneficiary list apparently seems to be very slow in its discovery. We got stuck with the paint companies for a few days and the week and then we found some other ones and now we are coming into the polyester side of the business. However there is a huge list of companies and JBF is one of the better players within that packaging film and manufacturing stuff. My sense is people need to be careful that a change in crude a level surprises of crude need to be constant for a while for actual benefits to start accruing to some of these smaller players and don’t get carried away that this is going to be a perennial growth story of sort so.You need to book profits you need to make sure that you do not go over board on these stories. My sense is there will be some new names also that will get added to it. The worrisome part is you have the likes of a Suzlon and Alok Industries which have started flying. The kind of volumes that they have seen and that is a signal that there is too much of froth that is building up in smallcap and midcap stories.
Sonia: Are there still any value buys in the midcap space, good quality names that offer value even at this juncture? A: As I said if you take the froth out, we have forgotten about some of the good names that were making the news headlines in May and June of this year. Let me bring to your memory a company called ITD Cementation which is a lovely company, would benefit quite a bit with this whole new change that we are seeing in the construction cycle, the way the EPC players are benefitting, NCC is a case in point today. You have some of these companies like ITD Cementation which are specialist and they would have amazing pricing power when the expansion starts. So, my sense is you need to go back to some of these companies, exactly which were darlings of the market six months back and people have forgotten about them and there is a lot of value. Look at Everest Industries, it has done extremely well but somewhere people have missed out that roofing is something which is a perennial need and it will probably start attracting attention when it hits a couple of circuit filters. However, otherwise there is enough value available in the market; you need to look beyond what is making the headlines today.
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