Buy Lupin; target of Rs 2404: Deven Choksey

Deven Choksey report on Lupin

Consolidated revenue for the quarter stood at INR 70,475 Mn (Product Sales: INR 68,314 Mn), up 24.2% YoY (+12.4% QoQ), significantly above our estimates, marking the company’s best-ever quarterly performance. The strong beat was driven by exceptional growth in North America (+47.3% YoY) and robust traction in Other Developed Markets (+18.9% YoY). Growth was broad-based across key geographies, supported by volume expansion, new complex product launches in the U.S. (notably Tolvaptan, Mirabegron, and Generic Spiriva), and higher profitability from complex generics. The India business reported muted performance versus our expectations, impacted by lower local tender sales and the Loss of Exclusivity (LOE) on in-licensed products, rather than seasonal softness.

Outlook

We have rolled forward our valuation to Sept’27 estimates. We value Lupin at 25.0x Sept’27 EPS, implying a target price of INR 2,404. We reiterate our “BUY” rating on the stock as we expect continued earnings momentum driven by a sustained ramp-up in U.S. complex generics, margin expansion from superior mix, and steady domestic growth.