13 top-shelf stocks from PINC Research

PINC Research has come out with its report on various stocks.

ASHOK LEYLAND: Our earnings estimates for FY11 and FY12 are Rs2.3 and Rs3.0 respectively. Our FY12 earnings estimate are 8.62% higher than consensus estimate of Rs2.51. We have a 'BUY' recommendation on the stock with a target price of Rs37, which discounts FY13E earnings by 12.5x. ASHOKA BUILDCON: Our FY12 and FY13 earnings estimates are Rs21.6 and Rs25.7, 12.1% and 15.3% lower than consensus estimates respectively. We expect top-line growth of 12.5% and 19% to Rs20.1bn and Rs23.3bn in FY12 and FY13 vs. consensus forecasts of 46.8% and 21.5% to Rs19.1bn and Rs23.2bn, respectively. We value BOT (on a DCF basis) at FY12E and FY13E equity multiples of 1.6x and 1.1x, respectively. Our SOTP-based target price is Rs363, where BOT is valued at Rs208 and EPC at Rs155 (9x FY12E earnings). The stock offers an upside potential of 51% at our SOTP-based target price of Rs363 vs. consensus target of Rs344. BAJAJ AUTO: Our FY12 and FY13 earnings estimates are Rs107.5 and Rs123.3, respectively. We have a 'BUY' recommendation on the stock with a target price of Rs1,850 discounting FY13E earnings at 15x. Our FY12 earnings estimate is 8.5%higher than the consensus estimate of Rs99.06. INFOSYS: Our revenue estimate for FY12 varies from consensus by ~0.8% and 0.7% higher than consensus for FY13. Our EBITDA margin forecast is higher than consensus for FY12 and FY13. Our EPS estimates are ~3.0% higher and 1.5% higher than consensus for FY12 and FY13 respectively. IRB INFRA: Our FY12 and FY13 earnings estimates are Rs14.2 and Rs11.3, 3.9% and 32.1% lower than consensus estimates respectively. We expect top-line growth of 27.6% and 18% to Rs31.1bn and Rs36.7bn in FY12 and FY13 vs. consensus forecasts of 33.6% and 31.9% to Rs32.6bn and Rs42.9bn, respectively. We believe the recent correction in its share price provides a good entry point for long-term investors. The stock offers an upside potential of 36% at our SOTP-based target price of Rs227 vs. consensus target of Rs218. JAGRAN PRAKASHAN (JPL): Our FY13 revenue estimate is in line with consensus. However, our FY13 EPS estimate of Rs8.2 is 5% below consensus. We have a 'BUY' recommendation on the stock with a target price of Rs148 (18xFY13E EPS). JYOTHY LABORATORIES: Our estimates for FY13 are among the highest on the street led by expectation of improved profitability in Henkel India. We assign 16x to FY13 earnings and add Rs12/share NPV on tax saving of Rs1.2bn @12% discount rate to derive the TP of Rs246. MAHINDRA & MAHINDRA: Our FY12 and FY13 earnings forecast are Rs41.6 and Rs47.9 respectively. Our FY12 earning estimate is 8.8% lower than consensus estimate of Rs45.65. We value M&M at Rs831 using SOTP methodology, discounting the standalone business at 13x FY13E earnings. NESTLE INDIA: Our estimates and target price are among the lowest on the street, led by pressure on EBITDA margin and argument of narrowing down the Nestle's P/E premium. We assign P/E of 30x on next 12-months earnings to derive at a TP of Rs3,400. NIIT TECH: Our top-line estimates vary from consensus by ~(4.0)% for FY12 and ~(3.5)% for FY13. Our EBITDA margin estimate is 70bps higher for FY12 and 40bps higher for FY13. Our EPS estimate for FY12 is 2.7% lower than consensus but EPS estimate for FY13 is in-line with consensus. PHOENIX MILLS: Our EPS estimates for FY12 and FY13 are Rs10.8 and Rs16.0 respectively. Our FY12 earnings estimate is 27% is higher than consensus estimate of Rs8.5. We have a 'BUY' recommendation on the stock with a target price of Rs265, which discounts FY12E Gross NAV by 15%. POWER GRID: Our FY12 PAT estimate is in line with consensus while FY13 is higher by 1%. We value PGCIL on FCFE basis to arrive at a target price of Rs120 (terminal growth rate 3% and 13% Ke). SINTEX INDUSTRIES: Our earnings estimates (EPS) for FY12 and FY13 are Rs19.9and Rs22.8, respectively. Our FY12 adjusted earnings estimate is 7.6% higher than consensus estimate of Rs18.5. We have a 'BUY' recommendation on the stock with a target price of Rs240, which discounts FY12E earnings by 12x. TECPRO SYSTEMS: We expect EPS of Rs31.4 and Rs37.6 in FY12 and FY13, respectively, almost in line with consensus forecasts. We expect 9% growth in order inflow in FY12, whereas some analysts forecast de-growth of ~30-35%. However, the management has guided for ~30% growth in order inflow in FY12. We have a BUY recommendation with a target price of Rs375 (10x FY13E). Public holding more than 90% in Indian cos Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts/broking houses/rating agencies on moneycontrol.com are their own, and not that of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions. To read the full report click on the attachment

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