Exports likely to recover in 2013-14: CRISIL

CRISIL Research has come out with its analytical note titled "Exports likely to recover in 2013-14" based on trade data for December 2012. According to the reserarch firm, global crude oil price in 2013-14 is expected to decline to $100 per barrel from $109.3 per barrel in April-December 2012.

India’s trade deficit for December 2012 came down to $17.7 billion - a decline of 8.4 per cent from November. Trade deficit fell primarily because of lower oil imports and improved exports (11.7 per cent month-on-month). While exports continued to fall compared to a year ago, there has been a gradual reversal in the declining trend of exports. Going ahead, CRISIL Research expects merchandise exports to recover since global economic prospects for 2013 are slightly improved. The likelihood of a recession in the Euro zone and the United States in 2013 is now lower and the 'fiscal cliff' in the US has been managed for the time being. Also, we expect global crude oil price (Brent crude) in 2013-14 to decline to $100 per barrel from $109.3 per barrel in April-December 2012. As a consequence, we do not expect trade deficit to widen further in 2013-14. Exports- The cumulative value of exports for April-December 2012 stood at $214.1 billion, a contraction of 5.5 per cent from the same period last year. Imports- Imports recorded an increase of 6.3 per cent as compared to December 2011. For the April-December 2012 period imports stood at $361.3 billion as compared to $363.9 billion (a decline of 0.7 per cent) during same period last year. Oil and Non Oil Imports- At $14.4 billion, oil imports in December 2012 were 0.6 per cent lower than the previous month but 23.6 per cent higher than December 2011. Cumulatively, oil imports for April-December 2012 at $124.5 billion were 12.2 per cent higher than the same period last year. Non-oil imports in December were valued at $28.1 billion, 3.9 per cent higher than the previous month. For April-December, the cumulative non-oil imports were valued at $236.8 billion, 6.4 per cent lower than that of the same period last year. To read the full report click on the attachment Disclaimer: This report (Report) has been commissioned by the Company/Investor/Exchange and prepared by CRISIL. The report is based on data publicly available or from sources considered reliable by CRISIL (Data). However, CRISIL does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of the Data / Report and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of Data / Report. Opinions expressed herein are CRISIL's opinions as on the date of this Report.  The Data / Report are subject to change without any prior notice. Nothing in this Report constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice or any solicitation, whatsoever. The Report is not a recommendation to buy / sell or hold any securities of the Company. CRISIL especially states that it has no financial liability, whatsoever, to the subscribers / users of this Report. This Report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient only. This Report should not be reproduced or redistributed or communicated directly or indirectly in any form to any other person or published or copied in whole or in part especially outside India, for any purpose. © CRISIL Limited . All Rights Reserved. Published under permission from CRISIL"

Read More