Trading Plan: Will bullish momentum help Nifty 50 march toward 25,200, Bank Nifty surpass 55,500 next week?

The Indian equity markets witnessed a remarkable week (ended May 16), with the Nifty 50 rising over 4 percent to cross the 25,000 mark for the first time in 2025, driven by easing geopolitical tensions. The index has now retraced over 61.80 percent of the decline from its lifetime high of 26,277 to the recent lows of 21,743—signaling a major turnaround in sentiment.

From a technical standpoint, the support base has shifted up, with 24,800 as an intermediate cushion, and 24,500–24,380 (Bullish Gap) as sacrosanct support for the upcoming week. On the higher side, 25,200–25,300 is the immediate resistance zone. A breakout above this could encourage new long positions, potentially targeting 25,500–25,700. However, investors should proceed cautiously, as external factors may affect market dynamics. In the options space, the 25,000 strike Call and Put carry high open interest, reinforcing its importance as a pivotal zone.

Key Resistance: 25,200, 25,300

Key Support: 24,800, 24,500, 24,400

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on dips near 24,800–24,600, with a stop-loss at 24,400, and book profits near 25,300.

Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head Technical Derivatives) at Axis Securities

The Nifty 50 ended the week with a strong gain of 1,012 points. On the weekly chart, the index formed a long bullish candle with a higher high and higher low, closing above the previous week’s high—indicating a strong positive bias.

It is now approaching a critical resistance zone between 25,000 and 25,200. A breakout above this could open the door for further upside. Conversely, a decisive close below 24,665—the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from 23,936 to 25,116—may trigger profit booking. A move above 25,250 could push the index towards 25,500–25,700, while a drop below 24,800 could see support near 24,700–24,500.

For the upcoming week, the Nifty is expected to trade within a broad range of 24,500–25,700 with a positive bias. The weekly RSI remains above its reference line, indicating momentum in favour of bulls.

Key Resistance: 25,150, 25,300

Key Support: 24,900, 24,700

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures near 24,950, with a stop-loss at 24,800, targeting 25,250–25,350, or deploy a Bull Call Spread strategy - Buy one lot of 25,000 strike Call at Rs 195–175, and sell one lot of 25,300 strike Call at Rs 70–80 of May 22 expiry. Breakeven is 25,118. The maximum risk is Rs 8,850, and the maximum reward is Rs 13,650.

Riyank Arora, Technical Analyst at Mehta Equities

Nifty successfully closed above the psychological resistance of 25,000, with the RSI (14) on daily charts moving above 65, reflecting strong momentum. The MACD is in positive territory and has witnessed a bullish crossover, indicating potential for further upside.

We expect the index to head towards 25,250–25,300 as the bullish trend continues. Any pullback toward 25,000 should be seen as a buying opportunity, with a "buy the dip" strategy preferred.

Key Resistance: 25,250, 25,300

Key Support: 25,000, 24,950

Strategy: Buy Nifty May Futures at 25,080, with a trading stop-loss at 24,950, for upside targets of 25,250 and 25,300.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Osho Krishan, Chief Manager - Technical & Derivative Research at Angel One

Bank Nifty remains range-bound, though buying pressure is gradually building, as seen by the diminishing selling near resistance zones. A daily and weekly close within those resistance bands suggests a potential bullish buildup.

A move above the 55,500–55,650 zone could trigger fresh bullish momentum and possibly lead the index to new all-time highs. On the downside, immediate support lies at 55,000–54,800, with strong support at 54,500–54,400, aligned with the 20-DEMA.

Key Resistance: 55,500, 55,650, 56,000

Key Support: 54,500, 54,400

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures near 54,500–54,400, with a stop-loss at 54,000, targeting 55,650–56,000.

Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head Technical Derivatives) at Axis Securities

Bank Nifty registered a weekly gain of 1,760 points, forming a bullish candle with a higher high and higher low on the weekly chart. The index continues to trade within a bullish flag pattern, suggesting consolidation.

A decisive breakout from this pattern could resume the uptrend. Sustaining above 55,500 may lead to further upside towards 56,000–56,500, while a break below 55,000 could attract selling, pulling it down to 54,500–54,000.

The index is likely to trade in the range of 54,000–56,500 with a mixed bias. The weekly RSI and Stochastic Oscillators have flattened, indicating lack of strong directional strength.

Key Resistance: 55,500, 55,800

Key Support: 55,000, 54,500

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures near 55,100, with a stop-loss at 54,800, targeting 55,500–55,650.

Riyank Arora, Technical Analyst at Mehta Equities

At current levels, major resistance lies at 55,500, above which the next hurdle is at 56,000. The RSI (14) around 61 reflects underlying strength, and the MACD is on the verge of a positive crossover, which may further strengthen momentum.

Given the strong support at 55,000, the risk-reward ratio favours the bulls, provided a strict stop-loss is observed.

Key Resistance: 56,200, 56,500

Key Support: 55,000

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty May Futures at 55,500, with a trading stop-loss at 55,000, targeting 56,200 and 56,500.

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