Closing Bell: Nifty ends below 17,000, Sensex falls 344 pts; PSU banks drag, metals gain

Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Domestic equities witnessed selling pressure for fifth consecutive day. Nifty opened positive, however spill-over effect from European markets led index to erase its entire gains in the later part of the day to close with loss of 69 points at 16975 levels. Except Metals, Consumer Durables and Pharma, all sectors ended in red.

Globally, investors remain cautious ahead of upcoming central bank meeting, although some relief was seen after US government's intervention to ease fears regarding ongoing banking crisis, coupled with the inline CPI inflation numbers.

On Domestic front, Nifty closed below 17k zones after gap of five months, indicating the weak structure for the market. We expect market to remain in negative territory for next few days.

Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research, HDFC Securities

Nifty fell for the fifth consecutive session on March 15 as worries over banking contagion in the developed world continued to hurt sentiments. At close Nifty was down 0.42% or 71.2 points at 16972.2. Volumes on NSE were below recent average. Broad market indices did better than the Nifty even as the advance decline ratio remained at 0.78:1.

India's trade deficit came in at USD 17.4 billion in February 2023, which is narrower as compared to USD 18.75 billion in the year-ago period and USD 17.76 billion in January 2023.

Nifty failed to build on the opening gains on March 15 and ended in the negative. 16,747-17,166 could be the trading range for Nifty in the near term. The day when Nifty has a gap-up opening and closes near day’s high could signify a short term reversal.

Jatin Gedia, Technical Research Analyst, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas

The Nifty witnessed a gap up opening however, it could not sustain at higher levels and ended the session down ~70 points for the day. The key hourly moving averages placed at 17,200 acted as a stiff resistance. Despite the strong opening Nifty was not even able to surpass the previous trading session high and as the day progressed selling pressure intensified resulting in fifth consecutive negative close for the day.

It has achieved our short term target of 16,950 and hence we revise it downwards to 16,750 which is the previous swing low. On the hourly charts we can observe a positive divergence developing however it needs to be confirmed by a daily positive close and hence we shall assign more weightage to the price action as of now and continue to maintain our negative outlook on the index.

Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services

The in-line data showing a decline in US inflation provided a gap-up opening in context with the global relief rally, bringing confidence that the Fed would not opt for a harsh rate hike following the turmoil in the banking sector. Broader rate hike expectation has reduced from 50bps to 25bps and there are possibilities that the Fed may even consider not to hike in the March policy meeting.

Domestic gains were short-lived, as European markets fell on fears that the ECB would raise interest rates by at least 25 bps at its meeting on Thursday, high interest rate is the worry of the stock market.

Rupee Close:

Indian rupee ended lower at 82.60 per dollar against previous close of 82.49.

Market Close:

Indian benchmark indices ended lower in the highly volatile session on March 15 with Nifty below 17000.

At close, the Sensex was down 344.29 points or 0.59% at 57,555.90, and the Nifty was down 71.10 points or 0.42% at 16,972.20. About 1508 shares advanced, 1924 shares declined, and 119 shares unchanged.

Bharti Airtel, IndusInd Bank, Reliance Industries, HUL and Nestle India were among biggest losers on the Nifty, while gainers included Adani Enterprises, Adani Ports, Asian Paints, Tata Steel and Titan Company.

Except metal, pharma, capital goods, all other sectoral indices ended in the red.

The BSE midcap and smallcap indices ended on flat note.

Morgan Stanley View on IndusInd Bank 

-Overweight rating, target at Rs 1,525 per share
-Management said it lacks clarity on why RBI choose to grant a 2-year CEO extension instead of 3
-Granularisation of liabilities remains a key focus area
-Loan growth guidance unchanged in low 20% area
-Risk to this would be contingent upon sharp deterioration in macro outlook
-Expect margin to remain range-bound at 4.2-4.3%
-Credit costs to remain in guided range of 110-130 bps

Nifty Bank index shed nearly 1 percent dragged by Bank of Baroda, SBI, IndusInd Bank

Anuj Choudhary - Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas

Indian Rupee depreciated marginally today on weak domestic markets and some recovery in US Dollar. Selling pressure from foreign investors also weighed on the currency. FIIs have remained as net sellers in the past four consecutive sessions. However, sharp fall in crude oil prices cushioned the downside.

US Dollar recovered as inflation data from US raised expectations that Fed may continue its rate hike spree, albeit at a slower pace. Core CPI was slightly above forecast, which continues to remain a cause of concern.

We expect Rupee to trade with a negative bias on risk aversion in global markets and expectations of a recovery in dollar. Fresh FII outflows may also weigh on Rupee.

There are rising odds of a 25-bps rate hike by Fed in its FOMC meeting next week. Traders may take cues from trade balance data from India and Empire State Manufacturing Index, PPI and retail sales data from US. Investors may remain vigilant amid contagion concerns from the US banking crisis. USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 82 to Rs 83.

Here are the BSE 500 stocks that have fall from the day's high

Market at 3 PM

Benchmark indices were trading at day's low with Nifty around 17,000.

The Sensex was down 222.12 points or 0.38 percentat 57,678.07, and the Nifty was down 38.60 points or 0.23 percentat 17,004.70. About 1593 shares advanced, 1678 shares declined, and 108 shares were unchanged.

February Trade Data

Trade Deficit at $17.43 billion versus $17.76 billion, MoM and $18.75 billion, YoY.

Global Surfaces IPO final day sees investors booking 7.47 times, QIB portion 5 times

The maiden public issue of Global Surfaces received a healthy response from investors on its final day of booking on March 15 as it garnered bids for 5.78 crore equity shares as against an offer size of 77.49 lakh shares subscribing 7.47 times.

All investors participated in the offer with retail portion being subscribed 3.58 times and the portion set aside for high networth individuals (non-institutional investors) being booked 20 times. The pie reserved for qualified institutional buyers was also bought fully on last day of the offer, subscribing 5 times.

KEC International has secured new orders of Rs 1,028 crore across its various businesses.

Amitava Mukherjee takes additional charge as CMD of NMDC

Amitava Mukherjee has taken an additional charge as Chairman-cum-Managing Director of NMDC. During his tenure as Director (Finance), NMDC recorded best ever financial performance with a turnover of Rs 25,882 crore, and profit after tax of Rs 9,398 crore in FY22.

NMDC was quoting at Rs 117.60, up Rs 1.20, or 1.03 percent on the BSE.

Citi sees 45% upside in Maruti Suzuki on market share gains

Maruti Suzuki may have an upside of over 45 percent on gains in market-shares and easing concern over supplies, according to Citi. The brokerage, which has a 'buy' call on the stock, has given a target price of Rs 12,500.

The auto major’s share has been falling over the past three fiscals, from 51.2 percent in FY19 to 43 percent in FY22 and one of the reasons was its late catch-up with the SUV-buying trend. The market share of SUVs had gone up from 26 percent in 2019 to 42 percent in 2022, showing a marked preference among customers for the higher-end models.

Market at 2 PM

Benchmark indices erased all the gains and trading flat.

The Sensex was down 122.12 points or 0.21% at 57,778.07, and the Nifty was down 14.50 points or 0.09% at 17,028.80. About 1718 shares advanced, 1513 shares declined, and 113 shares unchanged.

Antu Thomas, Research analyst at Geojit Financial Services:

The green shoots in demand revival on account of a pick-up in real estate demand will add colours to the sector. Brent crude is currently trading at a three-month low after a 13% correction from the most recent peak. The current deflationary trend in raw material prices will be reflected in margins in the coming quarters.

We expect the recent fall in stock prices also had an influence on the rebound. Currently, the paint stocks are trading below their respective 5/3/1 year P/E average, which provides a bargain opportunity to the investors as the long-term story remains intact. The sustenance of this rally depends on a prolonged demand recovery in discretionary spending and a drop in inflation.

Nazara Technologies share price gains as subsidiaries give access to entire amount held at SVB

Nazara Technologies share price rose as two of its step down subsidiaries i.e. Kiddopia Inc and Mediawrkz Inc have been given unrestricted access to the entire amount of USD 7.75mn (~ Rs 64 crores) that was held at Silicon Valley Bank (SVB).

Adani Power witnessed block deals of 1.16 million shares and 2.13 million shares in two different Bunched Trade: Bloomberg

Mishra Dhatu Nigam board approves interim dividend

The board of directors of Mishra Dhatu Nigam at its meeting held on March 15, 2023 has approved declaration of interim dividend Rs 1.68 per equity share (16.80%) of Rs 10 each for the financial year 2022-23.

Mishra Dhatu Nigamwas quoting at Rs 195, up Rs 2, or 1.04 percent on the BSE.

Oil prices recoup losses after OPEC upgrades China demand outlook

Oil prices rebounded more than 1% on Wednesday, recovering from the previous day's fall, after OPEC's upwards revision for Chinese consumption offset bearish global investor sentiment trigged by U.S. bank failures.

Brent crude futures climbed $1.04, or 1.3%, to $78.49 a barrel by 0710 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) gained 98 cents, or 1.4%, to $72.31 a barrel. On Tuesday, the benchmarks shed more than 4% to a three-month low.

BSE Smallcap index up 0.5 percent supported by Kopran, Rama Phosphates, Alok Industries

M R Kumar resigns as Chairman from the board of LIC Housing Finance

M R Kumar has resigned as Chairman [Non-Executive (Nominee) Director] from the board of the LIC Housing Finance. He tendered resignation after attainment of superannuation from the services of Life Insurance Corporation of India with effect from March 13.

BSE Midcap index added 0.5 percent led by Gland Pharma, GMR Airports, Oil India

Udayshivakumar Infra to launch IPO on March 20

Road construction company Udayshivakumar Infra has decided to launch its maiden public issue next week, on March 20. The price band for the offer has been fixed at Rs 33-35 per share.

The company is planning to mop up Rs 66 crore throughpublic offer that comprises only a fresh issue and there is no offer for sale portion.

The closing date for the offer would be March 23.

Market at 1 PM

Benchmark indices erased all the intraday gains and trading flat amid volatility.

The Sensex was up 31.41 points or 0.05% at 57,931.60, and the Nifty was up 23.20 points or 0.14% at 17,066.50. About 1870 shares advanced, 1317 shares declined, and 121 shares unchanged.

Asian shares rise as fears about rapid Fed hikes, bank crisis fade

Asian equities rose on Wednesday, tracking a relief rally on Wall Street after U.S. inflation data delivered no nasty surprises, reinforcing hopes the Federal Reserve will likely go for a smaller rate hike when it meets next week.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was 1% higher, having slid 1.7% on Tuesday after SVB's collapse triggered heavy selling by investors in the last few trading sessions.

Global Surfaces IPO final day sees investors booking 3.29 times, QIB portion 3.6 times

The maiden public issue of Global Surfaces received a healthy response from investors on its final day of booking on March 15 as it garnered bids for 2.62 crore equity shares as against an offer size of 77.49 lakh shares subscribing 3.29 times.

All investors participated in the offer with retail portion being subscribed 2.33 times and the portion set aside for high networth individuals (non-institutional investors) being booked 5.61 times. The pie reserved for qualified institutional buyers was also bought fully on last day of the offer, subscribing 3.58 times.

Anand Rathi upgrades Asian Paints to 'buy' with target at Rs 3,260

Anand Rathi expects Asian Paints’ demand to rise as compared to weak volumes in the December quarter. Lower input prices would help margins expand from March quarter. The broking house has lowered its earnings estimate for FY23 by 8 percent, FY24 and FY25 by 6 percent each to factor in weak Q3 volumes and higher capital expenditure.

Anand Rathi is optimistic of its earnings, around 17 percentcompounded annually, over FY23-25. The recent stock-price fall provides an entry, driving its upgrade to a 'Buy'at a target price of Rs 3,260, 55 times FY25Earnings Per Share,as against Rs 3,570 earlier which implied 60 times September FY24Earnings Per Share.

DFM Foods get BSE, NSE approval for voluntary delisting

DFM Foods has received a delisting order, approving the delisting of equity shares from BSE and National Stock Exchange of India. Accordingly, the trading in the equity shares of the company will be discontinued from both the exchanges with effect from March 28 this year.

Further, the company will be delisted from exchanges with effect from April 5. The exit option will be kept open by the promoter or acquirer of the company--Al Global Investments (Cyprus) PCC along with Al Darwin (Cayman)--for the remaining public shareholders for a period of at least one year from the date of delisting at the rate of Rs 467 per share, being the exit price determined.

Dreamfolks Services enters into agreement with Visa Worldwide Pte

Dreamfolks Services has entered into an agreement with Visa Worldwide Pte. Limited for launching Global Duty-Free services program.

Dreamfolks Services was quoting at Rs 422.85, up Rs 14.95, or 3.67 percent on the BSE.

Dollar finds footing as SVB fears calm down

The dollar was attempting to steady in Asia on Wednesday, as investors dialled back bets on U.S. rate cuts and fear of a banking crisis ebbed - though a looming hike in Europe had the euro on a firm footing.

The European Central Bank meets on Thursday and markets think a 50 basis point hike is likely, a more hawkish stance than traders expect from the U.S. Federal Reserve next week.

The euro touched a month high $1.0760 in the Asia session before drifting back to flat at $1.0744. Elsewhere, the last few days' selling pressure on the dollar was abating.

The dollar rose 0.4% to 134.72 yen, even as wage talks delivered the biggest pay increases in a quarter century which are likely to pressure monetary policy settings in Japan.

These FMCG stocks has fallen from their day's high

Mishra Dhatu Nigam shares gain ahead of board meeting

A meeting of the board of directors of Mishra Dhatu Nigam will be held on March 15, 2023, to consider a proposal relating to declaration of interim dividend for FY2022-23.

Elgi Equipments arm buys 33.33% stake in CS Industrial Services LLC

Elgi Equipments' wholly owned subsidiary Elgi Compressors USA Inc, USA has acquired 33.33 percentstake in CS Industrial Services LLC.

CS Industrial Services will act as an exclusive dealer or distributor for Elgi Compressors USA Inc, for sale of ELGi branded compressors in Western New York region.

Prabhudas Lilladher retains buy rating on PVR with a target price of Rs 2,096

Broking house Prabhudas Lilladher increase its EBITDA estimates for merged entity by 7.0 percent/7.5 percentfor FY24/FY25, as it expects synergy benefits of around Rs 200 crore to accrue over next twoyears.

The PVR-INOX merger is expected to lend invincible size advantage to combined entity (18 percent/30percentscreen/Box Office share respectively),enhance balance sheetstrength (Inox had net cash balance sheet as of January end) enabling rapid expansion into new markets, and improve bargaining power with various stakeholders in the value chain like film distributors, real estate developers, ad-networks and ticket aggregators resulting in material revenue/cost synergies, the brokerage firm said.

Though there are concerns over Bollywood underperformance, the broking house believes it is not a structural issue (Net Box Office Collections of Pathaan stood at about Rs 5.4 billion despite high decibel negative campaigns); but a problem of content, as OTT proliferation has raised the bar of audience expectations from big screen.

It expects merged entity to report footfalls of 170mn/185mn and EBITDA margin of 19.7 percent/21.0 percent in FY24/FY25respectively. The brokerage firm has retained its‘buy’ rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 2,096 after assigning an unchanged EV/EBITDA multiple of 15.5 timesto merged entity.

PVR was quoting at Rs 1,571.55, up Rs 43.90, or 2.87 percent on the BSE.

Market at 12 PM

Benchmark indices were trading firm in the afternoon session with Nifty holding above 17,100.

The Sensex was up 255.65 points or 0.44% at 58,155.84, and the Nifty was up 80.50 points or 0.47% at 17,123.80. About 2042 shares advanced, 1088 shares declined, and 119 shares unchanged.

Sonata Software chosen as a TOP SI partner for Bayer’s new Agri-food Cloud solution

Sonata Software has been chosen as one of the TOP SI partners of the newly launched cloud solution developed by Bayer for the agri-food industry. With the required skills to implement the new cloud solution combined with its long -standing relationship with Microsoft, domain expertise and capabilities in data modernization, Sonata Software is well-poised to accelerate its ability to bring new value and deliver outcomesbased, digitally enabled solutions to Agri customers globally, company said in its release.

Sonata Software touched 52-week high of Rs 853.55 and quoting at Rs 829.40, down Rs 1.60, or 0.19 percent on the BSE.

KPI Green Energy received commissioning certificates from Gujarat Energy Development Agency for capacity of 31 MWdc solar power project under 'Captive Power Producer (CPP)' segment of the company. 

CLSA View On PVR 

-Buy rating, target at Rs 2,500 per share
-PVR-Inox ripe for resurgence in occupancies; Rs 230 crore of annual synergies
-PVR-Inox has 1,674 screens across 114 cities
-Management is targeting the addition of 180-200 screens annually
-Management sees Rs 225 crore of annual EBITDA synergies, which could boost FY25 margin estimates of 34%
-Management’s target to accelerate growth in South India could boost FY25 Rev & EBITDA forecasts