Q3 to see macro noise; oil may trade up at $52 a barrel:Barclays

Speaking to CNBC-TV18 Miswin Mahesh, Energy Analyst at Barclays said the markets are pricing in world events. Barclays forecasts crude to trade at USD 46 a barrel in the near-term. "We have USD 41 for the next quarter. We do see prices going up to USD 52 a barrel." He also added that it is important for crude to average at USD 47 a barrel in the second quarter of this fiscal year.The third quarter is where he sees a lot of macro noise. On the downside, he said, US' non-farm payrolls, factory orders from Japan as well as emerging market indicators aren't looking good. Event risks emanating from Brexit and the US elections will be transferred to crude, he said. Below is the transcript of Miswin Mahesh’s interview with Manisha Gutpa on CNBC-TV18.Q: How do you look at the price movement because there have been many scares and we did see prices rising on premium of that. Would you say that much like the oversupply now reducing and the concerns in the market is what really seems to be taking the prices down?A: Quite a few things I would say. One is as you have just mentioned, the macro sentiment taking a turn for the worst, especially with the polls here in the UK now suggesting an increasing chance of a Brexit, expecially the polls that we received yesterday, and the markets are factoring in what the repercussions that would be in terms of global levers, etc. So, that has affected macro sentiment to a point that on oil fundamentals as well I will say that there are quite a few things, Canada in terms of their production, that is returning to the market. A lot of the positivity on the demand side has been already priced in I would say whether it will be strong US gasoline season, strong demand from other countries as well has already been priced in. So, not much more left on that front. And the other thing is that US oil red counts two consecutive weeks of increase and that is starting to weigh on the market as well. So, have we gone down too quickly and in terms of the price recovery and also the positioning thing. There is a bit of a squaring off going into the referendum here in the UK.Q: For the longest time we kept talking if the crude prices have made their bottom. But the question now is that whether they have made a top right now. A: A very temporary one I would say because the Barclays oil forecast for Q2 has been around USD 46 per barrel. So, we need to average USD 46 per barrel. So it is likely to go down from here. Then we have got USD 41 per barrel for the next quarter. This is where it gets interesting. We do see prices rising higher in the fourth quarter. We have USD 52 per barrel. So, it is a very volatile path and I must say, Q3 is where we see a lot of macro noise coming through and upsetting some of the longs that are there in the market.Q: That is about the slightly longer term. For the very near-term, with the Fed meeting announcement tonight and Brexit referendum in the next week to 10 days, can you see a very high volatility? That is of course expected in most asset classes but how do you see crude taking an impact from that?A: Sadly, crude will also be associated with some of that dollar linked volatility. We are already seeing some of the asset classes such as cable for instance that has shown extreme volatility because of the huge event that is taking place and the other thing I would highlight is the liquidity in the market which is something that people are expecting to taper off in general. Not only oil but other macro asset classes as well going into this referendum on June 23 which is now looking very tight on the polls.