Mkt will focus on macro issues post hope rally: Anand Rathi

Sandeep Shenoy, Anand Rathi Financial Services expects the market to see a top-up trend in the initial trade, but it could see a steady fall with marginal downward bias later in the day.

According to him market has factored in a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win's few weeks ago and hence the uptrend. He told CNBC-TV18 that whenever the market is finely balanced it has the ability to surprise negatively than positive. He further added that the market is likely to factor in the Monday's expected newsflow before 12 noon today itself and may not react much on that day. In fact from next week onward, it will focus on PMI, inflation and other such news data. Also read: Nifty trend remains up; minor dip is opportunity to buy Below is the verbatim transcript of his interview on CNBC-TV18 Q: What is your sense? Will the markets express their exuberance today? What kind of a gap up opening or will they reserve some of the cheer for Monday just to see whether the numbers are confirmed by the actual poll results? A: The last few days' trend if not that of last few weeks is more or less factoring in a 3-0 verdict in favour of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). So in that perspective you can say the market is on one side. Q: Why do you say that? Both days market fell a bit - yesterday about 140 points on the Sensex and the day before some 40 points. So why are you saying it factored it in the last three days? A: The run up which has come, we are just trying to figure out the last few years of newsflow which has come in, especially yesterday evening, but then if you look at the way it has been factoring in for the last 3-4 weeks, we have seen a sustained uptrend move. But whenever market is so finely poised and balanced and you have a 3-0 win kind of thing being factored people being all on one side of the trade, the ability for market to give a surprise is generally more on the negative rather than on the positive. So you may have a 80-90 point gap up there, but more or less the opening trade could be the top up trend and we could see a slow and steady downward trend with a marginal bias downward. It is not going to be a crackdown, but it could be giving up some of the gains what it shows in the first trade. I do not think there is too much of a big bang expectation on Monday because market generally is quite fast and efficient in factoring these kind of news, so whatever is going to happen we will be factoring in before 12 noon today. Q: So even if we see a clear majority on Sunday you do not expect this market to head above those 2008 highs? A: The intermediate trigger what we call, like the feel good trigger or everybody gets that adrenaline rush that should be over by Monday onwards. From thereon the hard reality of PMI, inflation and earning traction etc those triggers are still some months away, so market will have to wait for that.