The market took a sudden U-turn on Wednesday with the Nifty tested 8150 levels and the Sensex cracking 600 points.
Here is an outlook by experts going forward
Sanjay Dutt of Quantum Securities says the fall is nothing much to be perturbed about and could be termed as a healthy correction in a strong bull market.He does not expect Nifty to go below 7800-7900, which could pose as a reasonably strong bottom for the market and believes this correction gives an opportunity to enter into good quality stocks that have corrected 20-30 percent, stocks with strong balance sheets and growth outlook.Dutt is in favour of PSU bank stocks and capital goods stocks with an eye on economic recovery. The correction is more a fundamental issue because stocks had run up on back of expectation of better earnings and reforms from the government. However, now the entire landscape seems to have changed with earnings disappointing and reform process in a muddle.
Dilip Bhat of Prabhudas Lilladher clearly believes the way the market has sold off and confidence has shaken it is likely that the market will remain nervous going forward too. It is possible that Nifty could see sub-8000 levels and so any rise in the market should be used as an opportunity to book profits, he adds. So, it is time to take a pause and wait for things to pan out, at least till the earnings season is out, says Bhat. According to Bhat, the way the recovery has been tentative and not decisive one should only focus on frontline stocks. Larsen and Toubro is a good bet along with Axis Bank, HDFC Bank and Federal Bank. One can also look at some auto names, Maruti, Bajaj Auto from current levels. Jagdish Malkani, member of BSE & NSE says there is always a news to justify a fall and today it could be rise in crude prices, which are trading at around USD 60 per barrel and USD 68 per barrel for WTI and Brent respectively. Oil has been the key pillar of the India story, he adds. Moreover, FIIs too have been selling on a net basis and one has to see them turn back at least for 3-4 sessions in a row. The government too has failed on the MAT front and in terms of other reforms.Stock/sector specific, he believes bloodshed in PSU banks is likely to continue and he would not look at anything beyond Bank of Baroda in that space. There are also good quality private banks available, he adds.
Deven Choksey of KR Choksey Securities says the fall could be attributed to large basket offloaded on the Nifty side by FIIs to invest in initial public offerings (IPOs) in China.China market is coming out with USD 175 billion worth IPOs this week and money is likely to remain blocked over there. It could also due to inactions on crucial bills like GST and land acquisition bills which is resulting in global traders developing cold feet on India, at least for now,says Choksey.In our case, it could also be because of nervous global investors due to delay in key reforms, which may have led them pull money out of the system, says Choksey. This has further led to fall in rupee which in turn could have led to trading funds pulling out money. So all these reasons could have been combined and resulted in a sharp fall.However, according to him fundamentals of the market haven’t changed beyond a point and at some point at lower level, one could see value buying happening and quality investors coming in with long-term buying view. Kunal Bothra, head of advisory, LKP believes the market momentum will be very crucial because Nifty has broken the important support of 8150 and if it closes below that then the next support would be around 7850, which could be a sharp fall.
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