China is back on the global radar, with markets waiting to see if the authorities announce a significant recovery package. But pending that, the global market sentiment will remain negative, Avendus Capital Public Markets Alternate Strategies CEO Andrew Holland said in an interaction with Moneycontrol. Investors are watching the current economic crisis in China for its “impact on global growth” and the resultant market sentiment, he said.
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If the Chinese government announces a significant package, the “markets would rejoice”, Holland said. So far, investors have seen only “little patches” which were not “firing up the expectations that the economy would recover quickly”, he added.
India has been an unexpected beneficiary of China’s economic crisis. Holland said that the situation has resulted in India becoming the best-loved market in Asia. “The conversation (among investors in Asia) has now changed from ‘how China is cheap because the valuations are low’, to ‘what one can buy in India, even though the valuations are higher’. So, this is good news for India, till the Chinese introduce a stimulus package,” he added.
However, until recovery measures are taken, it will continue to weigh on the sentiment. China is a “large country” and the challenges it is facing would also impact other countries that export to China, such as Japan and Korea.
According to Holland, the slowdown could have two overall impacts. On one hand, it could lead the developed world towards recession sooner than market expectation. On the other hand, a slightly positive impact could be that deflation could help in bringing down inflation.
“It kind of falls into our view that towards the end of the year, the Feds will have to cut rates because the global economy including the US is clearly moving into recession… which is not being helped by this global slowdown in China,” he said.
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