Jigar Patel picks three buy ideas, believes failure to sustain Nifty above 23,500 could exacerbate market uncertainty

The domestic markets remained under pressure for the seventh consecutive week ended November 14, as bearish sentiment continued to dominate. The benchmark Nifty index breached the critical support level of 23,800, extending its decline to 23,500 and closing the week with a loss of 2.55 percent. This persistent downtrend has been driven by consistent selling from foreign institutional investors (FIIs) and a strengthening dollar index, which has pushed the Indian rupee to an all-time low near 84.50 against the dollar.

Technically, the market's pullback attempts are being met with swift selling pressure, leading to the breakdown of multiple key support levels. The Nifty 50, along with broader indices such as the Nifty 500, Nifty Midcap 100, and Nifty Smallcap 100, has retested its 200-day exponential moving average (DEMA) and closed near this critical level, making the upcoming sessions pivotal for bulls. Failure to sustain above 23,500 in the coming week could exacerbate market uncertainty. The daily RSI (Relative Strength Index) has entered oversold territory, but intraday RSI shows positive divergence. On the upside, a move above 23,700 could trigger short-covering, offering a potential relief rally. However, a decisive breakdown below 23,500 could push the index further towards the 23,300–23,000 zone.

The Nifty Bank index also faced significant selling pressure, declining over 2.6 percent for the week and slipping below the crucial 50,000 level during the weekly expiry. From a price action standpoint, the index shows signs of a potential breakdown, with sustained trading below 49,900 raising concerns for banking stocks and broader indices. Immediate resistance lies at 50,600, and a move above this level could prompt some consolidation or a short-term pullback. The coming sessions will be critical in determining whether the index stabilizes or extends its downtrend further.

Buy Nifty Futures between 23,500-23,475, with a stop-loss of 23,325, targeting 23,800, while buy Nifty Bank Futures between 50,000-50,100, with a stop-loss of 49,700, targeting 50,800.