Nandish Shah, Senior Derivative & Technical Analyst at HDFC Securities
Nifty continued its upward journey for the fifth day in the row on November 28 to register fresh all-time high of Rs 18,614 levels. Nifty finally ended the day with the gains of 50 points to close at 18,563 levels.
After surpassing a hurdle of 18,100 mark few weeks back, the market witnessed a decisive breakout of another key resistance at 18,400 levels last week. The multi-month breakout on the monthly chart is gaining its strength. This could have a larger positive impact on the market for long term.
Momentum Oscillators like RSI (relative strength index - 11) and MFI (money flow index - 10) on the daily and weekly chart suggest strength in the current uptrend. Therefore, we believe that this uptrend in the Nifty is likely to continue for the coming weeks.
In the derivative side, we have seen aggressive Put writing at 18,200-18,300 levels. This level coincides with the 20-day EMA (exponential moving average) which is placed at 18,215. Therefore, on the downside, 18,200-18,300 could now be considered as an immediate support for the Nifty.
On the higher side, next upside target to be watched is around 18,955-19,000 levels, which is 78.6 percent of Fibonacci extension taken from the bottom of June, top of September and higher bottom of September 2022, as per weekly timeframe chart. Traders are advised to hold longs with trailing stop-loss of 18,200 in Nifty on closing basis.
The upside momentum has picked up in broader market indices like smallcaps and midcaps with the breakout on the daily chart. Now, the stage is set for larger move on the upside and therefore market breadth to improve significantly in the coming days.
Here are three buy calls for the next 3-4 weeks:
Stylam Industries: Buy | LTP: Rs 1,106 | Stop-Loss: Rs 1,030 | Target: Rs 1,185-1,220 | Return: 10 percent
Short term trend of the stock turned positive as stock price has closed above its 11 and 20-day EMA. Stock price is on the verge of breaking out from the downward sloping trendline on the daily chart, adjoining the highs of week ending August 19, 2022 and October 21, 2022.
Primary trend of the stock is positive as the stock price is placed above its 100 and 200-day EMA.
Momentum Oscillators like RSI (11) and MFI (10) are in rising mode and placed above 60, indicating strength in the current uptrend. One can buy the stock in the range of Rs 1,106-1,080.
Rallis India: Buy | LTP: Rs 245 | Stop-Loss: Rs 230 | Target: Rs 262-277 | Return: 13 percent
The stock price has broken out from the symmetrical triangle on the daily chart with higher volumes. Primary trend of the stock is positive as it is trading above its 50, 100 and 200-day EMA.
Momentum Oscillators like RSI (11) and MFI (10) are in rising mode and placed above 60, indicating strength in the current uptrend. Plus DI (directional indicator) is trading above minus DI while ADX (average directional index) line is placed above 25, indicating stock price is likely to gather momentum in the coming days. One can buy the stock in the range of Rs 245-238.
IRB Infrastructure Developers: Buy | LTP: Rs 261 | Stop-Loss: Rs 245 | Target: Rs 280-295 | Return: 13 percent
The stock price has broken out on the daily line chart with higher volumes to close at highest level since November 9. The stock price has been forming higher top higher bottom candle stick pattern on the daily chart. Stock price has broken out from the downward sloping trendline on the daily chart, adjoining the highs of August 8, 2022 and October 18, 2022.
Accumulation was seen in the stock in the month of November where volumes are higher on up days as compared to down days. Plus DI is trading above minus DI while ADX line is placed above 25, indicating stock price is likely to gather momentum in the coming days. One can buy the stock in the range of Rs 261-254.
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