The market, which has been caught in the grip of the bears, gave a negative yearly return for first time in last eight years. The BSE Sensex lost 1.4 percent and Nifty50 shed 3.5 percent between the 72nd Independence Day on 2018 and the 73rd Independence Day on 2019.
This was due to a slew of reasons like the never-ending US-China trade worries, which raised fears of global slowdown and increased the depreciation of Chinese yuan, the liquidity crisis, led by IL&FS, which hit many NBFCs, asset quality concerns, consumption and economic slowdown, unenthusiastic corporate earnings, and the imposition of a surcharge on super-rich, which resulted into FII outflow etc.
All sectoral indices closed the year in red barring BSE Information Technology (IT), which gained around 4 percent. Auto was biggest loser, with a 36 percent loss amid slowdown due to higher purchase cost, liquidity crisis, proposal to hike registration fees, and change in emission norms.
Among others, bank, capital goods, energy, FMCG and healthcare indices were down 1-14 percent.
The worst was seen in broader markets, as the BSE Midcap index plunged more than 17 percent, and the Smallcap index slumped by 25 percent.
As a result, among the BSE 500 index, around 75 percent of the shares turned lower for the year, but there are some stocks that not only gained, but also outperformed others by a wide margin.
Among 25 percent, the top 16 stocks which rallied in the range of 32-87 percent in last one year included Adani Power, Fine Organic Industries, Procter & Gamble Health, SpiceJet, Vinati Organics and Interglobe Aviation, which gained more than 50 percent.
SRF, Info Edge (India), ICICI Lombard General Insurance, Bata India, PI Industries, Tube Investments of India etc among others rallied between 40-50 percent.
(Note: These stocks are not buying ideas)
On other side, DHFL, Shankara Building Products, Reliance Capital, Reliance Infrastructure, Indiabulls Integrated Services, Infibeam Avenues, SREI Infrastructure Finance, HEG, Jain Irrigation Systems, Graphite India, Bombay Dyeing & Manufacturing Company, Indiabulls Ventures, Central Bank Of India and Coffee Day Enterprises were down by 70-90 percent.
Among BSE Sensex, the gainer:loser ratio was 50:50. Yes Bank, Tata Motors, M&M, Tata Steel, Maruti Suzuki, Vedanta and Sun Pharma were top losers, falling 30-80 percent, whereas ICICI Bank, Bajaj Finance, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Asian Paints, TCS and Infosys gained 10-25 percent.
Considering the global slowdown due to trade war tensions, as well as a domestic slowdown, the market is expected to remain rangebound in the next one year unless the government intervention to get back economy on track, experts feel.
"We are seeing selling pressure because of uncertainty looming over the economic scene of the global as well as the domestic markets. The future from here is more opaque than we have witnessed in the past decade. We are facing the economic version of the cold war of the last century, now the US and China confronting on trading issues," Romesh Tiwari, Head of Research, CapitalAim told Moneycontrol.
He said so for the next one year, his hopes are based on the survival spirit of Indians and their adaptability to change. The next one year can be turbulent for the markets, but with the government intervention, there could be revival after a couple of quarters, he added.
His strategy will be to invest in sectors which are getting beaten due to the absence of clarity and short term negative outlook, but are crucial for revitalizing of the domestic economy. These include auto, infra, banking, FMCG and the consumer retail segment, he said.
In the last one year, foreign institutional investors sold a net of more than Rs 4,500 crore worth of shares in the secondary market. However, domestic institutional investors remained net buyers in every month barring February-March-and-April.
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