Indian equities saw selling pressure for the second consecutive week ended July 11, falling more than 1 percent amid persistent global trade tensions and a weak start to the June quarter earnings season. The consistent FII outflow and the delay in the India-US trade deal also weakened sentiment. However, relentless buying from DIIs, favourable monsoon, and falling interest rates, along with easing inflation, provided support to the market.
The next week starting from July 14 is expected to see more consolidation and volatility given the uncertainty around trade negotiations. The focus will be on the earnings from the index heavyweights and other key companies which will result into stock-specific action, and several economic data points including inflation (from India, US, China, and Eurozone), and China's GDP numbers, according to experts. Earnings are expected to be the only factor that can revive sentiment.
The Nifty 50 declined 311 points (1.22 percent) during the week to 25,150, and the BSE Sensex was down 932 points (1.12 percent) to 82,500. The broader indices also corrected sharply, with the Nifty Midcap and Smallcap 100 indices falling 1.74 percent and 1.42 percent, respectively.
According to Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Research, Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, the lingering uncertainty around trade negotiations is likely to keep markets in a consolidation mode.
Investors will now focus on key domestic macro data, including CPI and WPI inflation prints, while tracking ongoing Q1 earnings and updates on the India–US trade deal, he said.
According to Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments, as Q1FY26 earnings unfold, investors are closely monitoring guidance on margins and sector dynamics.
Here are 10 key market factors to watch this week:
The flow of corporate earnings will increase in the coming week, after selected companies declared numbers last week. More than 125 corporate firms will be releasing their earnings scorecard this week, including prominent names like Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, HCL Technologies, HDFC Life Insurance Company, Tech Mahindra, Jio Financial Services, Wipro, and JSW Steel, which have more than 32 percent weightage in the Nifty 50.
Further, Ola Electric Mobility, Tata Technologies, AWL Agri Business, ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company, ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company, Bank of Maharashtra, Network 18 Media & Investments, Angel One, ITC Hotels, L&T Technology Services, HDFC Asset Management Company, Indian Hotels Company, LTIMindtree, Polycab India, Tata Communications, Bandhan Bank, L&T Finance, and India Cements will also announce their numbers this week.
Newly listed Sambhv Steel Tubes, HDB Financial Services, and Kalpataru, too, will release their June quarter earnings this week.
Last week, Tata Consultancy Services started the earnings season on a subdued note as it reported weaker-than-expected numbers for Q1FY26.
Trump Tariffs
Globally, the markets will keep a close watch on further action by the US President Donald Trump as he announced slew of tariffs last week, spreading caution amongst its trade partners. Furthermore, the delay in the India-US trade deal also made the market participants cautious as several sources were hoping for the mini trade deal before the July 9 deadline but that is yet to take place.
In the past week, Trump announced tariffs on several trade partners, which will be effective August 1. On Saturday (July 12), Trump imposed a new 30 percent tariff on imports from Mexico and the European Union, effective August 1, following stalled negotiations. He also warned of even higher duties if either of them retaliates. Both in total contributed around one-third of US imports.
Before this, Trump announced a 35 percent tariff on Canadian imports and a steep 50% levy on Brazilian goods. In addition, Trump signalled plans to raise the existing blanket tariff rate from 10 percent to 15-20 percent, which was another reason for the participants to be cautious.
US Inflation
The second important global factor will be the inflation numbers from the United States. The inflation is expected to be a bit higher in June compared to 2.4 percent seen in the previous month. The recent tariff hikes by Trump on several key trade partners and the last FOMC meeting minutes signalled the high possibility of tariff-driven inflationary pressures in the US.
Further, the PPI, retail sales, along weekly jobs data from the US will also be watched.
Global Economic Data
Apart from trade developments and US inflation, the focus will also be on the June quarter GDP numbers, retail sales, and unemployment rate from China, along with monthly inflation data from Japan and the Eurozone. China's GDP for the April-June period of the current year could be a bit lower compared to 5.4 percent seen in the previous quarter.
Domestic Economic Data (Inflation)
Back home, the market participants will focus on the retail inflation and WPI inflation numbers for the month of June, scheduled for July 14. Most economists expect the retail inflation to fall further to around 2.7-2.5 percent (if it happens, then this would be for the eighth consecutive month), compared to 2.82 percent seen in May, however, there might be some increase in WPI inflation for June, compared to 0.39 percent in previous month.
Apart from inflation, balance of trade and passenger vehicles sales numbers for June will be announced on July 15, followed by bank loan & deposit growth for the fortnight ended July 4, and foreign exchange reserves for the week ended July 11, which will be released on July 18.
The FIIs (Foreign Institutional Investors) mood will also be key to focus on this week, though there is a strong support from the consistent DIIs (Domestic Institutional Investors) inflow. FIIs remained net sellers for the second week of July, with an outflow of Rs 4,511 crore, bringing their total for the month to Rs 10,284 crore. This contributed to the second consecutive week of market decline. The elevated market valuations may be one of the key reasons for FIIs selling in India and moving to cheaper markets.
On the flip side, though DIIs compensated FIIs outflow for last week and current month, net buying at Rs 8,291 crore and Rs 12,403 crore worth shares, respectively.
Meanwhile, the US dollar index rebounded after hitting the lowest level of more than 40 months previous week, rising 0.91 percent during the recent week to finish at 97.87 on safe-haven flows amid Trump tariff jitters and sustaining well below all key moving averages. On the flip side, the rupee weakened further against the US dollar, down by 0.38 percent in the week to 85.7750.
The primary market will see a bit of slowdown in its activity in the coming week as there will be three new public issues opening this week, including one pharma company, Anthem Biosciences' Rs 3,395-crore IPO, from the mainboard segment. The offer will open for subscription from July 14-16.
Other two public issues will be from the SME segment. One isa non-woven fabrics maker Spunweb Nonwoven's Rs 61-crore maiden public issue opening on July 14 and the second will be liquor importer Monika Alcobev's Rs 165.6-crore initial share sale scheduled on July 16. Both will close in the same week.
Further, Smartworks Coworking Spaces' Rs 583-crore public issue will close on July 14, which was fully subscribed at 1.15 times in the last two days.
On the listing front, Travel Food Services will debut on the bourses on July 14, followed by Smartworks Coworking Spaces on July 17. In the SME segment, Smarten Power Systems and Chemkart India are scheduled for listing on July 14, followed by Glen Industries and Asston Pharmaceuticals, which will debut on July 15 and July 16, respectively.
Technical View
Technically, the market is looking weak as the Nifty 50 fell below short-term moving averages (10 and 20-day EMAs) and the midline of Bollinger bands, along with weakness in momentum indicators. Hence, experts expect the consolidation to continue in the coming week too, as long as the index sustains below 25,300. The next crucial zone to watch would be 24,900-24,800 (10-week EMA - the low of the last long bullish candle), as below it, the bears may gain more strength and pull the index down to 24,700. On the flip side, the upward journey is possible if the index sustains above 25,300.
F&O Cues
The weekly options data suggested that the Nifty 50 may trade in the 24,800-25,300 range in the immediate term, while the broader range could be 24,500-25,500.
The maximum Call open interest was observed at the 25,500 strike, followed by the 26,000 and 25,300 strikes, with the maximum Call writing at the 25,300 strike, followed by the 25,200 and 26,000 strikes. On the Put side, the maximum Put open interest was observed at the 25,000 strike, followed by the 25,200 and 24,500 strikes, with the maximum Put writing at the 25,000 strike, followed by the 24,800 and 25,200 strikes.
Meanwhile, the India VIX, the fear index, consistently dropped for the fourth consecutive week and reached a nearly 15-month low, which in turn signalling a calm environment for market participants. It was down by 4.04 percent for the recent week, to 11.82 zone, the lowest closing level since April 2024.
Corporate Action
Here are key corporate actions taking place in the coming week:
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