The broader indices are showing strong relative strength, Sudeep Shah, head, technical research and derivatives at SBI Securities said in an interview to Moneycontrol. "Their performance will be key in sustaining the market’s upward trajectory," Shah said.
He anticipates the Nifty might take a short pause, before continuing its new upward trend, as overall, market setup remains bullish.
"MCX gave a decisive breakout from its 13-day consolidation range of Rs 7,480-7,850 zone on September 17, followed by a decent buying, while Bank of India gave a double bottom neckline breakout and started moving higher, indicating that the uptrend may begin, supported by increased buying momentum," he said.
Do you think the Nifty 50 will struggle to cross the 25,500 resistance level, which seems crucial for further rallies?
The financial markets have gotten into the festive spirit a week ahead of Navratri, with the Nifty recording a strong rally. After a Symmetrical Triangle breakout, the index swiftly moved upward, finishing the week above 25,300 with gains of almost 1%. This marks its third consecutive week of growth.
Just like the devotion and resilience of Navratri, this rally has lived up to expectations, breaking out from its recent low of 24,404 to gain over 1,000 points in just 15 trading sessions. The broader market has also joined in the celebration, with the Nifty Midcap and Nifty Smallcap 100 both recording gains for 11 consecutive sessions. With such strong participation, the question on everyone's mind is how much further this rally will go.
We anticipate the Nifty might take a short pause, before continuing its upward trend. The overall market setup remains bullish, with all moving averages and momentum indicators aligning with the positive sentiment.
The 25,200–25,150 range is expected to be immediate support, as it aligns with the 8-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the recent rally (24,404–25,448). On the upside, a sustained move beyond 25,450–25,500 could trigger the next leg of the rally. Potential targets are at 25,750 and possibly even 26,000—a true festive delight for investors
What is your take on the Bank Nifty?
The banking benchmark, Bank Nifty, also wrapped up the week on a positive footing, notching its third straight weekly gain. From the recent low of 53,578, the index has rebounded sharply by more than 2,200 points in just 11 sessions, signaling renewed strength in banking stocks.
This recovery has lifted the index above its short- and medium-term moving averages, reflecting a clear shift in momentum. Importantly, both the 20-day and 50-day EMAs have turned upward, a bullish signal that highlights improving short-term trend dynamics.
Going forward, the index may enter a brief consolidation phase in the coming sessions, allowing it to stabilize and form a stronger base before resuming its upward move.
Technically, the 20-day EMA zone in the 55,000–54,900 range will act as a crucial support area. Sustaining above this level will be key to preserving the bullish undertone. On the higher side, resistance is placed at 55,900–56,000, which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the earlier decline from 57,628 to 53,561. A decisive move beyond 56,000 could set the stage for a fresh rally, with potential targets near 56,800 and then 57,500 in the short term.
Do you see any strength emerging in Vodafone Idea, given that the charts and technical indicators are showing a positive trend?
The stock of Vodafone Idea has staged a sharp recovery from the lows of Rs 6, and the stock is now trending in a higher-high, higher-low formation, reflecting a bullish structure. The rally has been supported by a steady increase in volumes, lending conviction to the upmove. Momentum indicators are aligned with the positive bias—RSI is at 70 and trending higher, indicating strong buying interest. The ADX is also on the rise, with the DI lines widening, signalling that the strength of the ongoing trend is improving.
Further, Bollinger Bands are expanding, highlighting rising volatility, while the price has closed above the upper band, suggesting a continuation of momentum in the near term. Overall, the technical setup remains favourable, and as long as the stock sustains above immediate support levels, it is poised to extend its rally toward higher levels in the coming sessions.
Are you bullish on Hyundai Motor India, which rallied nearly 9% in the past week?
Hyundai Motor India has delivered a breakout from a narrow range consolidation, triggering a steady upward move on the daily chart. The breakout has been accompanied by rising volumes, adding strength and conviction to the uptrend. Notably, the stock has closed above the upper Bollinger Band for three consecutive sessions, a sign of strong momentum and sustained bullish sentiment. Momentum indicators further reinforce the positive setup—RSI is placed at 77 and trending higher, reflecting robust buying pressure despite overbought conditions.
The MACD has also crossed above its signal line, confirming fresh bullish momentum. In addition, the stock is comfortably trading above all its key moving averages, which continue to act as dynamic support zones. Overall, the technical picture remains constructive, and as long as the stock sustains above its breakout zone, it is well-positioned to extend gains in the sessions ahead with a bias firmly tilted toward the upside.
Do you think new leg of upward movement in Nifty Midcap and Smallcap 100 indices could begin in October?
The broader market continued to outperform the frontline indices, with Nifty Midcap and Nifty Smallcap 100 leading the charge last week. Both indices delivered a strong breakout from the Adam & Adam Double Bottom pattern on the daily chart, a bullish formation that typically signals a trend reversal and continuation of upward momentum.
The breakout was accompanied by a remarkable winning streak, as both indices ended in the green for 11 consecutive trading sessions—the longest such streak since December 2024. This consistent performance highlights the strength and resilience of the broader market, supported by robust participation across mid- and small-cap segments.
From a technical standpoint, both indices are comfortably trading above their short- and long-term moving averages, reinforcing the bullish undertone. The upward slope of these averages further confirms the strength of the ongoing trend. Additionally, momentum indicators and oscillators such as RSI and MACD are also aligned with the bullish narrative, suggesting that the current momentum is well-supported and likely to continue in the near term.
Overall, the broader indices are showing strong relative strength, and their performance will be key in sustaining the market’s upward trajectory.
Which two stocks are your top picks for the upcoming F&O expiry week?
Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX India)
MCX gave a decisive breakout from its 13-day consolidation range of Rs 7,480-7,850 zone on September 17, which was supported by a steady rise in the volumes and a decent follow through buying post breakout. The price has been holding above its key short-term moving averages, signalling bullish strength, while comfortably above the long-term moving averages, confirming an overall uptrend. The RSI has remained moderate around 55-60, indicating healthy momentum. Bollinger Bands are slightly expanding, reflecting increased volatility and a possible continuation of the upward move.
Compared to the previous days, recent price action shows consistent higher highs and higher lows, maintaining bullish momentum. Overall, MCX exhibits steady bullishness with momentum and volatility indicators supporting further upside potential. Hence, we recommend accumulating the stock in the zone of Rs 8,045-8,055 with a stop-loss of Rs 7,800. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of Rs 8,600 in the short term.
Bank of India’s chart shows a classic double bottom pattern, signalling a bullish reversal after a downtrend. The stock gave a double bottom neckline breakout and started moving higher, indicating that the uptrend may begin, supported by increased buying momentum. Supporting indicators reinforce this bullish outlook. The price trades above its key short- and long-term moving averages, confirming medium and long-term upward trends. The RSI at 65 and in a rising mode, signals healthy momentum. Bollinger Bands are widening, reflecting rising volatility and strengthening trend. ADX, moving marginally above 25 confirms a strong trend is underway.
Additionally, the PSU Bank/Nifty ratio chart has shown a symmetrical triangle pattern breakout, indicating strengthening relative performance of PSU banks against the broader market. This breakout suggests Bank of India could lead the rally among PSU banks, further boosting its upside potential. Hence, we recommend accumulating the stock in the zone of Rs 120-122 with a stop-loss of Rs 117. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of Rs 130 in the short term.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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