Greece is unlikely to have any direct impact on the Indian markets, but people are worried about a contagion if Greece were to spin out of control, says N Jayakumar, President at Prime Securities.
In the Indian context, with monsoons and a whole bunch of other things having reversed and prospects now of interest rate cuts coming through, the market is seeing levels even at 8100-8200 as attractive - to be buying into and the longer this continues the more these levels will become more and more attractive, he adds.
Below is the verbatim transcript of N Jayakumar's interview with CNBC-TV18's Shereen Bhan
Q: Market staging a smart recovery despite the uncertainty that continues to surround the Greece story and of course developments changing there as we speak but what do you make of the turnaround that we saw this afternoon?
A: We have been seeing comments through the day that overall Greece shouldn't really be affecting the Indian markets. You had statements virtually from everyone including the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the finance ministry and more importantly even the players who are here that recognise that containment of Greece is a separate issue altogether and the impact there to be felt immediately here is not something that anybody was expecting. People are really concerned about the contagion that could happen were Greece to sort of spin out of control.
You could argue that it probably has spun out of control and whether they finally stay on which means you are really delaying the inevitable or they actually make an exit in which case it is very disruptive present as it were. But at least for the moment people have seen with monsoons and a whole bunch of other things having reversed and prospects now of interest rate cuts coming through that I think the market is seeing levels even at 8100-8200 as attractive levels to be buying into and the longer this continues the more these levels will become more and more attractive.
So, it doesn't surprise me that a big gap down opening was actually bought into and if you see the figures that have come out at the end of the day it kind of indicates the foreigners not being that active as it were and locals buying quite aggressively. So, in any shape or form this pullback doesn't surprise me.
Q: You were talking about the contagion impact and even if you look at the global markets while Europe and the US markets are down and the sharp cuts there but there doesn't seem to be a sense of panic even if you look at what is happening as far as gold is concerned. For instance gold prices haven't moved significantly at all in trade today. Do you believe that the market is in some fashion perhaps better prepared bracing itself for the eventuality coming in from Greece?
A: For one I don't even believe that the markets really know what will happen in terms of the contagion or in terms of what would happen in terms of an actual exit. People are still speculating what would happen, whether there be a modified sort of acceptance as it were of the conditions but all in all the markets are still, if not confident, but in some sense leaning towards the fact that there will be probably because Greece has really no options. If you look at that economy what options do they have if banks are going to be shut and bourses are going to be shut. Clearly we are seeing that the country has virtually kind of ground to a halt.
So, in one form or the other the referendum is that indeed is the crutch that the government is leaning on will go through and they will continue to stay on probably not with happy neighbours as it were but they will continue to stay on. So, markets are reacting to probably that kind of a scenario. So, it is uncertain at the very least and it is highly disruptive if things went any further which means that you actually had a situation where the referendum went against but even before the referendum on 5th, four or five days, and I see a lot more sort of palliative statements or some mollycoddling that would bring the parties together. I don't see this staying this way for the next five days.
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