Budget 2012-13: 4950 possible if oil moves towards $135/bbl: Gaurav Doshi

Tighter Western sanctions on Iran are making crude a difficult commodity for countries to get their hands on. Prevailing tensions over Middle Eastern supplies has IMF chief Christine Lagarde cautioning that supply disruptions from Iran could push oil prices up almost 20-30%, at a time when the price is hovering at USD 125 per barrel.

Gaurav Doshi of Morgan Stanley says Nifty could return to 4,950 if crude moves towards the USD 135 per barrel mark. Even as a house, they are bearish on crude. Almost all global markets have been correcting since the start of 2012, with the US and European economies facing exhaustion. Amidst all the volatility expected, he sees 5150-5600 as a range for the Nifty.
Ever since the Budget, bond yields have risen due to the Rs 60,000 crore increase in the gross borrowing programme of the government and the 5.1% fiscal deficit target laid out by finance minister Pranab Mukherjee.
Market analysts had been factoring a possible rate cut announcement in the April credit policy meeting. "The only thing is that this range could get extended by 200 points on the upside if we were to get some sort of a rate cut or some sort of positive indication from the RBI towards the April meeting," he adds.
However, given the current environment and the RBI