US President Donald Trump signed an executive order to suspend immigration temporarily for 60 days to tackle the rising unemployment in the wake of COVID-19. The ban only impacts green card applicants temporarily and will not affect H-1B holders, according to the order.
But is that really the case? The move may very well result in long-term immigration reforms given that the number of unemployed Americans is now at 26 million.
According to a Washington Post report, there are plans afoot to bring in more broad-based changes including merit-based immigration instead of family-based like it is now.
This would impact 26.5 lakh Indians working in the US and another hundred of thousands who are awaiting Green card and citizenship.
This report was based on Senior Advisor to the President - Stephen Miller’s meeting with Trump’s surrogates about the new executive order, recording of which Washington Post had obtained.
During the meeting, Miller pointed out how this temporary ban may usher in the broader long-term changes to immigration in the US. “The first and most important thing is to turn off the faucet of new immigrant labour - mission accomplished - with signing that executive order," he said.
Miller has also indicated that subsequent restrictions in the guest worker programme were also under consideration.
There are about 5,00,000 lakh Indian H-1B holders waiting in the green card queue. In 2019, close to two lakh were studying in the US and many of them STEM opting for 24 months Optional Practical Training (OPT) after completing their degree. After completing their OPT, more often than not, these students can get their employer to initiate H-1B, the coveted visa.
Going by Miller’s statement, the situation may be a lot more gloomy for Indians students and H-1B aspirants in the coming months as they await the 30-day review of guest worker programme.
Trump’s major election agenda was to bring changes to the immigration regime as the voices against awarding visas to tech firms and foreign workers, especially Indians, rose over the last few years.
These voices are not totally unwarranted going by the cases filed against the IT majors.
Visa abuse
Indias account for the highest number of H-1B visas granted to skilled immigrant workers. Each year, 85,000 new H-1B visas are issued and over one lakh get extended. According to a report by Recode.net, India and China accounted for 82 percent of all visas issued in 2016.
However, IT companies have allegedly been continuously abusing H-1B visas for years leading to visa violation cases. In 2017, Infosys was asked to pay $1 million to settle a visa violation case. In 2013, the IT major was caught in a $35 million visa fraud case. The same year TCS paid $30 million to settle a wage theft dispute involving 13,000 foreign workers, according to a research report by Epi.org.
This is one of the reasons why the Trump administration has been tightening the H-1B visa rules since 2017.
Does this justify the total immigration ban including guest workers?
It might not help either firms or the US economy, say multiple immigration consultants and research papers. The fact that most of the IT firms’ stocks tanked after the announcement is a case in point.
Indians account for one of the largest tech workforce in the US and any decision will directly hit these firms. These workers also contribute significantly in terms of tax to the economy. In addition, IT firms have stepped up their localisation in the US over the last couple of years. However, due to talent crunch and visa issues, their dependence on sub-contractors have increased resulting in margin compression.
Most have expressed that though some limitation might be inevitable, a drastic change would hurt the economy rather than help it.
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