Monetary Policy LIVE Updates: The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on December 4 decided to keep interest rates unchanged. It has maintained the policy stance at "accommodative", amid high inflation and some signs of economic recovery. The MPC made a unanimous decision to keep the repo rate steady at 4 percent, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das said. The reverse repo rate also remains steady at 3.35 percent. Das said the MPC will maintain the accommodative stance "for as long as necessary." Meanwhile, Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is projected to contract 7.5 percent in 2020-21, as against an earlier estimate of a contraction of 9.5 percent. And Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation is forecast at 6.3 percent in Q3FY21, and 5.8 percent in Q4. "Inflation is likely to remain elevated. Signs of recovery are far from being broad-based. A small window available for proactive supply management strategies," the RBI Governor said.
Here are the six key takeaways:
>> Inflation forecast: The RBI governor said inflation is likely to remain elevated with some relief in the winter months. "CPI inflation is seen at 6.8 percent for Q3FY21 and projected CPI inflation is at 5.8 percent for Q4FY21. For H1FY22, projected CPI inflation is seen at 5.2-4.6 percent with risks broadly balanced," said Das.
>> Growth forecast: The RBI governor said the rural economy looks resilient. "Government borrowings have been smooth so far and corporate bond spreads have narrowed to pre-pandemic levels. RBI's role as debt manager and banker to the government was tested to the hilt. Nascent signs of recovery are visible in H2FY21," he said.
He underscored that the signs of recovery are far from being broad-based and dependent on sustained policy support. A small window is available for proactive supply management strategies, Das said. "It was hence decided to maintain the status quo in policy rates. The year 2020 has been extremely challenging and our determination to fight and overcome stood out in this difficult year," Das said.
"Projection for H2FY21 is positive +0.1 percent for Q3 against -5.6 percent earlier and +0.7 percent for Q4 against +0.5 percent earlier. Real GDP growth for FY21 projected at -7.5 percent," said Das.
>> A close eye on financial stability: The RBI governor reiterated that the central bank is keeping a close eye on the financial system of the country. "Near-term financial stability risks have been contained. Portfolio flows into emerging markets have recovered. RBI seeks to quickly recoup employment and output losses. We remain strongly committed to preserving the stability of the financial sector," said Das.
>> Assures ample liquidity: Governor Das highlighted that the bond markets have evolved in an orderly manner, congenial conditions for other segments of financial markets that price financial instruments of G-Sec yield curve have emerged. He pointed out that the bond market conditions evolved in an orderly manner overall. RBI is ready to undertake further measures to assume market access to liquidity.
"RBI is taking measures to reduce volatility, we will continue to respond to global spillovers to secure domestic stability with our liquidity management operations. We will use various instruments appropriately to ensure ample liquidity," he said. The governor said RBI will continue to respond to global spillovers with our liquidity management tools.
>> NBFC regulatory regime to be reviewed: Governor Das said for NBFCs, RBI will put in place criteria for declaration of dividends and their regulatory regime will be reviewed to take a scale-based approach. "The current regulatory regime of NBFC sector warrants a review," he said.
"For the overall financial sector, the RBI will introduce risk-based internal audits in large urban co-operative banks and NBFCs. The RBI will also issue 'Digital Payments Security Control Directions'. We will also form a comprehensive mechanism for complaints against lenders," he said.
>> RTGS facility to be made 24x7: The money transfer tool RTGS facility will be made 24x7, said, governor Das. "Settlement of AMPS, NFS, Rupay and UPI transactions will be allowed all days of the week against earlier five days of the week," said Das.
Most analysts had expected the monetary policy committee (MPC), which sets the key policy rates in India, to retain the rates this week after the three-day meeting (December 2-4). Inflation and growth are the key factors that decide the course of monetary policy. The rate panel takes a view looking at the growth-inflation dynamics. To put it in simply, higher inflation warrants, typically, a tighter monetary policy (hike in key rates) whereas falling economic growth calls for lower interest rates. The idea is lower rates spur demand and economic activity.
Is MPC's 'accommodative' stance losing its meaning amid high inflation? 5 key takeaways on RBI’s growth-inflation conundrum
The monetary policy committee (MPC) has retained the key rates in its policy review amid the pandemic worries. It has voted for growth, ignoring the near-term pressure on inflation. The MPC has largely affirmed the guidance it gave in the October policy—to continue with the ‘accommodative stance’ as long as necessary to support growth. It has opted for status-quo in the last few policies despite being in an ‘accommodative’ stance.
Now the key question--can the MPC cut rates going ahead (which is what the stance suggests) or shift focus to inflation management that is clearly not the focus now? High inflation prevents the MPC from easing the policy rates no matter what stance it takes. Read here for the five key
RBI Monetary Policy LIVE | Reactions
Deepak Chandnani, Managing Director, Worldline South Asia and Middle East:
"The RBI’s decision to increase the limit from Rs. 2000 to Rs. 5000 without entering a PIN on contactless transactions through NFC cards is a welcome move. We have in recent months seen a marked increase in contactless transaction on our network. This is because of the fact that the entire transaction is contactless with no one but the cardholder touching the card and also very importantly the ease of use. NFC transactions follow safety protocols as specified by RBI and Payment Schemes and cardholders can be assured that their transactions are being conducted in a secure manner.”
RBI Monetary Policy LIVE | Reactions
Prof. Krupesh Thakkar, CFA, HoD Financial Markets, ITM B-School, Navi Mumbai:
"The RBI has kept the key interest rates unchanged, repo at 4% and reverse repo at 3.35%, for the third straight time. Though, it has kept its accommodative stance, the concern is on rising inflation. This was also evident as CPI for the month of October 2020 came at 7.61%, which above 6% for 7 months now. Both supply side factors and rise in commodity prices are still daunting the inflation. Of course, the borrowers might not see their EMIs going down but this is a huge relief for larger fixed deposit investors and the FD rates will hold steady for now. This is indeed a good news as the ample liquidity in the systems is already putting a downward pressure on short term rats, which RBI too has noted. Going forward, we need to observe, high quickly the headline inflation falls below the RBI threshold limit of 4%, to give us any hope of rate cuts."
RBI Monetary Policy | Unchanged repo rate to boost demand, say real estate experts
The RBI's decision to hold rates was expected. A steady repo rate will help boost residential uptake and support construction activity, they say... Read More
RBI Monetary Policy LIVE | Reactions
Nish Bhatt, Founder & CEO, Millwood Kane International:
“The status quo policy by RBI is on expected lines. The assurance by the RBI to maintain surplus liquidity in the system to help boost demand and economic recovery is a big positive. It indicates easy rates to continue well into 2021. The status quo on the policy stance signals rate easing in the near future provided inflation remains under control. While the RBI hiking the inflation forecast is a cause of worry but the projection of growth rate swinging back to positive in Q3, Q4 indicates the worst may be over. The RBI keeping rates low despite high inflation shows its focus to boost economic growth over keeping inflation under check which is majorly a supply-side issue. The RBI policy is supportive of growth and in sync with the government's reform agenda.”
RBI Monetary Policy LIVE | Reactions
Gaurav Garg, Head of Research, CapitalVia Global Research:
"RBI, in its 5 th bimonthly MPC meet, followed the accommodative stance and kept rates unchanged. RBI kept repo rates at 4.00% and Reverse Repo unchanged at 3.75% with unanimous voting by all MPC members. Inflation was at a higher level in the last few quarters however, CPI inflation is estimated at 6.8% in Q3FY21. CPI inflation is expected to be at 5.8% for Q4FY21, and 5.2-4.6% in H1FY22 which might give RBI a room to continue the low interest rate regime. There have been a lot of positive events over the past month. Vaccine trials have been successful and the recovery rate in India has crossed 94% which gives a relief from further spread and the second wave of novel coronavirus. Q2 results were also better than expected for most of the companies and profit margin improvement and good growth might sustain in coming quarters as well. Healthy business growth and demand pick-up is expected to push the GDP growth in positive territory by Q4 of this financial year. RBI is expecting a strong pick up in rural and urban demand, however, lower than expected Private investment is a sign of worry. Exports are likely to go up after implementation of the vaccine programme in various developed economies. Real GDP change for FY21 is projected at a contraction of 7.5%. Projecting 0.1% growth for Q3 and 0.7% growth for Q4. RBI has successfully taken some steps which has helped in revival of economy. This low rate regime is going to fuel growth and pull India out of contraction towards positive growth rate sooner than expected."
RBI Monetary Policy LIVE | Reactions
Amar Ambani, Senior President and Head of Research - Institutional Equities, YES SECURITIES:
"In line with the expectations, RBI decided to stand pat on the policy rate and updated growth and inflation outlook given that inflation remains stubbornly high, while growth is gaining traction. The central bank scaled down on its earlier pessimistic GDP projection for FY21 as the frequency indicators and GDP data convey meaningful rebound in economic activity in both rural and urban demand. Inflation will remain as a hindrance for next two quarters and will dissuade further policy rate cuts at least for FY21. MPC did not unleash new on the non-interest rate tools, as significant measures (OMOs, TLTROs) have already been announced during the last policy meeting. The fact that liquidity remains high, while growth is gaining traction, makes us believe that RBI will adopt a wait and watch approach for next few months. Nevertheless, the MPC reiterated its accommodative stance given the transitional phase the economy is going through, in terms of recovery from the pandemic."
RBI Monetary Policy LIVE | Reactions
Padmaja Chunduru, MD & CEO, Indian Bank:
“The tone remains dovish though repo rate change was kept on hold and adding a promise to take steps to boost growth. Continued accommodative stance will boost business confidence further. We can hope that signs of recovery in Q2 and positive growth projected for H2 will improve debt servicing capacity of corporates going ahead.”
RBI Monetary Policy LIVE | Reactions
Mohit Ralhan, Managing Partner & CIO, TIW Private Equity:
“Maintaining accommodative stance and status quo by RBI is on expected lines. It’s encouraging to get confirmation from RBI on the economic recovery. RBI also continues to take measures to safeguard our financial system for long term stability and drive towards digital payments. The intent is extremely positive and the focus will be on the continuation of economic recovery. We believe that the Mar-2020 quarter is highly likely to mark the return to normality.”
RBI Monetary Policy LIVE | Reactions
Ramesh Nair, CEO & Country Head (India), JLL:
RBI stays put; to aid in maintaining real estate sector recovery
"Higher than expected recovery in Q2 FY 21 GDP reflects the resilience and robustness of the Indian economy. RBI’s decision to hold the policy rate and accommodative stance to revive growth on a sustainable basis augurs well for the economy. This is in spite of the fact that inflation for Apr to Oct 2020 is hovering above the higher limits of RBI’s inflation target.
The decision to maintain the policy rate was in line with the real estate sector’s expectations as the sector is just recovering and is yet to bounce back to Pre-COVID-19 levels. Residential real estate witnessed initial signs of recovery with sales increasing by 34% in Q3 2020 over Q2 2020. The RBI’s decision to hold the rate will help homebuyers to avail the benefit of the prevailing lowest mortgage rates. Green shoots of recovery armed with other incentives such as stamp duty reduction in some states and the flexibility of developers in offering best prices/payment schemes will help in further improving home sales."
RBI Monetary Policy LIVE | Reactions
Ram Raheja - Director, S Raheja Realty:
“The real estate sector was expecting a rate cut which would give further impetus to demand and induce liquidity in the market. However, for the third time in a row the RBI decided to keep the repo rate unchanged for the growth of the economy and to have control over inflation maintaining an accommodative stance. While the GDP expectations for H1 2021 are on the downside, there is expectation of recovery in H2. With the next budget focusing on boosting growth, this may lead to rise in investment in safe-haven assets like real estate as prices are likely to appreciate from current levels. With the role of the real estate sector in generating employment and economic activity, we foresee 2021 as a year that makes a comeback along with the hopes of a vaccine.”
RBI Monetary Policy LIVE | Reactions
Shishir Baijal, Chairman & Managing Director, Knight Frank India:
“RBI’s accommodative stance in the last few months has kick started the economy that had experienced a sudden contraction due to the pandemic. These measures have ensured both - demand stimulation and liquidity in the economy, achieved by keeping the short term borrowing rates well below benchmark. Today’s announcement remains in line with the RBI’s goal of nurturing growth despite the rise in inflation. Keeping demand stimulated to maintain the current momentum would be critical for continuous acceleration of the economic recovery. Recently reviving market performance indicators, despite all odds and supported by government and central bank interventions, have enthused a great sense of relief across real estate markets in the country. Home loan interest rates, which are at the lowest, have played a key role in rekindling the latent demand in housing market by nudging home buyers to make purchase decisions even during the pandemic. RBI’s decision to keep the rates unchanged will keep the momentum of demand intact to provide the much needed stability , as even while there is recovery in the economy, it is still fragile and highly volatile.”
RBI Monetary Policy LIVE | Reactions
Gaurav Dua, SVP, Head – Capital Market Strategy & Investments, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas:
"Growth remains high on the priority of RBI. Though the policy rate remain unchanged for the third time, the monetary stance likely to remain accommodative for an extended period of time. The commentary is dovish in spite of the elevated level of inflationary pressure. It essentially means the liquidity situation would be comfortable and interest rates likely to remain soft in the near term. However, we see limited scope for further easing of interest rates by banks to borrowers given the tapering of growth in retail deposits and rising credit demand in the economy. Overall, the policy outcome is supportive for equity markets in general and interest rate sensitive sectors and economic recovery plays in particular. Consequently, we retain overweight stance on banks and financials (especially leading NBFCs) along with autos (especially auto ancillary space) and engineering space."
RBI Monetary Policy LIVE | Reactions
Bekxy Kuriakose, Head – Fixed Income, Principal Asset Management:
"RBI kept key rates unchanged and stance as accommodative. MPC noted that inflation is expected to remain elevated and this prevented them from cutting key rates further. RBI Governor in his live appearance once again underscored the success of measures taken since the Pandemic broke out and reiterated that Bond market conditions have evolved in an orderly manner. He assured the market that the various measures being used for stabilizing yields like gilt purchases through OMOs, OT (Operation Twist) etc will continue. The key statement which seems relevant is when he repeated that "All instruments will be used at appropriate time while ensuring ample liquidity is available to the system". Thus we expect that soon some liquidity tightening measures may be introduced in form of term reverse repos of higher tenors or T bills or any other facility to impound liquidity. Currently the NET LAF is close to Rs 6 lakh crores and some of this liquidity may be withdrawn. Post RBI statement, gilt yields have softened 3-7 bps as there was relief on reassurance of continuation of OMO measures. We would be cautious of short term money market yields which pre policy had fallen to record lows even below the reverse repo rate. We expect that on introduction of liquidity tightening measures in coming days, yields mar rise in the upto 6 month segment by 10-25 bps. Overall given the accommodative stance and RBI's continued focus for growth revival we would advise investors to keep a balanced asset allocation with core allocation to high quality short term debt category."
RBI Monetary Policy LIVE | Reactions
Krish Raveshia, CEO of Azlo Realty:
“The RBI keeping key rates unchanged is on expected lines as inflation has been way above the RBI mandated level. The policy stance kept unchanged at Accommodative indicates further rate easing in near future. The announcement by RBI to keep system liquidity in surplus to help growth is a big positive. Low rates and availability of ample funds are necessary for demand in the real estate sector. The result of low rates helped pick up demand in the last few months. The key thing is RBI projecting growth to swing back in the positive territory in Q3 and Q4 of FY21. Positive GDP growth, low rates, easy liquidity, pickup in demand indicates the worst is behind us.”
RBI Monetary Policy LIVE | Reactions
Deepthi Mathew, Economist at Geojit Financial Services:
"It was in the expected line with the RBI keeping the rates unchanged and continuing with the accommodative stance. The extension of the accommodative stance to the next financial year has cheered the market. However, the fear of a rising inflation rate is evident in the RBI governor's address. The supply-side issues, demand recovery, and inflow of foreign funds could fuel retail inflation"
RBI Monetary Policy LIVE | Reactions
Ashish Shanker, Deputy MD and Head of Investment, Motilal Oswal Private Wealth Management:
"RBI policy was on expected lines. They have prioritised growth over inflation. This is an acknowledgment that inflation drivers seem to be more supply side led. An accommodative liquidity stance will ensure access to liquidity will not be a challenge and the ongoing recovery continues to gather steam. This will help push through govt borrowings in a year where the revenues are under pressure. Guidance is better than earlier on growth and flows. Positive for markets.”
RBI Monetary Policy LIVE | Reactions
Abheek Barua, Chief Economist, HDFC Bank:
"The RBI kept its policy rate unchanged at 4%, as expected, and continued to keep its policy stance accommodative. Some sections of the market had anticipated the central bank to act on the rising surplus liquidity in the system in light of the increasing inflationary pressures. However, the absence of any major liquidity absorption measures in the midst of a prolonged inflationary episode and indeed the upward revision of both the RBI’s growth and inflation forecasts might be somewhat puzzling. However, it could mean that the RBI is a) still cautious about the durability of growth given the myriad uncertainties related to growth, b) it sees inflation as principally a supply side-problem amenable to supply rather than monetary intervention, c) it is willing to tolerate higher inflation as long as growth impulses become firmly entrenched and 4) it perhaps expects some natural moderation in liquidity as the government usually goes into collection mode in the last quarter of the fiscal. In fact, given its emphasis on growth revival and the suggestion that there is still some more space left for monetary support, another 25-50 basis point cut in 1H CY2021 cannot be ruled out."
RBI Monetary Policy LIVE | RBI press conference
Speaking on the resolution for Punjab and Maharashtra Co-operative Bank, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das said that response to the call for expressions of interest (EoI) for PMC Bank "looks positive." He was answering a question in regards to the long-drawn RBI administration of the bank and when a resolution could be expected.
RBI Monetary Policy LIVE | RBI press conference
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das:
"We want HDFC Bank to strengthen its systems before expansion and are sure the bank will comply. RBI has some concerns on certain deficiencies on IT systems in HDFC Bank. Overall, banks, NBFCs and other lenders need to boost IT systems to maintain public confidence. We see need for more investment in robust IT solutions by all financial entities. Our teams are also studying the digital system outage at State Bank of India. The RBI is constantly engaged with management of various banks and NBFCs to bridge any gap."
RBI Monetary Policy LIVE | RBI press conference
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das:
"Budget is likely to be growth-oriented, but will not necessarily be expansionary. Government's measures so far have been prudent and well targetted. We expect the Budget to be growth-oriented and prudent."
RBI Monetary Policy LIVE | RBI press conference
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das:
"The RBI's first move is to attempt to work with bank managements and intervene only when required." He was responding to question about whether the central bank is looking to improve its supervisory mechanism after banks boards had to be taken over by the RBI.
RBI Monetary Policy LIVE | RBI press conference
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das:
"RBI will not take unilateral action on sensitive matters. We will act after consultations. Our strategy has been to prevent undue volatility in the forex market. Liquidity has been infused since March 27 has achieved its purpose. We are sterilising foreign inflows via reverse repos and various instruments to soften impact on domestic liquidity. The RBI has strengthened and deepened its supervisory mechanisms."
RBI Monetary Policy LIVE | RBI press conference
RBI Deputy Governor Michael D Patra:
"We expect inflation to soften over the next two months. If supply-side management is timely and effective, inflation trajectory may change. This window of easing prices is a chance for supply-side management. MPC sees inflation easing due to winter supply of vegetables."
RBI Monetary Policy LIVE | RBI press conference
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das:
"RBI is a multi-purpose central bank, but inflation targetting is of paramount importance. Our expectation on inflation over the last two months has not materialised. We are dealing with a "100-years event" (COVID-19 pandemic) and need to respond accordingly. We want a robust NBFC sector. NBFCs need to strengthen capital position and other aspects. We are looking at scale-based regulations for NBFCs."
RBI Monetary Policy LIVE | RBI press conference
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das:
"Economy has recovered much faster than expected. There is no fixed template for responses to bank resolutions. Action with respect to Lakshmi Vilas Bank is in the best interest of depositors. Working Committee report on corporate ownership of banks should not be seen as view of the RBI. The RBI has not taken any decision with respect to corporate ownership of banks. We will examine comments on the Internal Working Group on Bank Licences Report before taking a call."
RBI Monetary Policy LIVE | RBI press conference
RBI Deputy Governor Michael D Patra to CNBC-TV18 Latha Venkatesh:
"Inflation is led by retailer margins and indirect taxes. RBI is keeping a careful watch on the liquidity situation and will act if we find surplus liquidity boosting prices. The current inflation is more due to supply-side issues and as demand is muted."
RBI Monetary Policy LIVE | RBI press conference
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das:
"RBI takes decisions in best interest of depositors. It is our primary responsibility. Would not like to elaborate on bonds write-down since the matter is sub-judice. We will spell out NPA projection in finance ministry stability report after the Supreme Court order."
RBI Monetary Policy LIVE | RBI press conference
RBI Deputy Governor Michael D Patra: "We expect liquidity to be comfortable. Some money market rates are below reverse repo rate due to asymmetric liquidity distribution."
RBI Monetary Policy LIVE | RBI press conference
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das: "Window available for checking inflation momentum. We have seen some action from the government on the inflation front. Continuously watchful of inflation, will take a call as we move ahead."
RBI Monetary Policy LIVE | Reactions
Joseph Thomas, Head of Research - Emkay Wealth Management:
"The RBI policy announcement reflects the determination of the central bank to continue with the accommodative policy, with the base rate unchanged at 4 percent, while being cautious about the inflationary pressures that are building up. But growth gets the priority once again, with inflation projected to be lower in Q4 and H1 FY22. That all the liquidity measures initiated earlier will continue to be in force, is a consolation, especially in a high inflation scenario. The growth projections too mirror the gradually improving ground conditions, with the overall growth for this year put at -7.50 %, with mildly positive growth for Q3 and Q4. The features and contents of the policy gives the reassurance that lower rates and the plenty in liquidity will continue for a longer time period, till the time inflation rises so much as to derail it. The policy is supportive of both equity and fixed income markets, with its moderating implications for rates.”
RBI Monetary Policy LIVE | Reactions
Jimeet Modi, Founder & CEO Samco Group: "RBI maintained status quo in-line with street expectations and GDP numbers too have been revised upwards. Although increasing inflationary tendencies have been acknowledged, little seems to have been done to contain the price index. In Fact it is assumed that CPI will cool down to below 5% in H1 of FY21-22. In all likelihood, inflation isn’t going lower given the massive helicopter money across the world created by central banks and run up in commodity prices such as crude, base metals. It is likely to remain elevated given that import restrictions are in place to support the domestic economy. Such a growth recipe will have unintended consequences of higher inflation not only in India but across the world which will be the bigger animal to tame a few quarters down the line. However, in the near term this will support recovery in financial markets and will keep the bulls charged in the capital markets."
MPC maintains status quo; 6 key highlights of RBI MPC announcements
Most analysts had expected the RBI MPC, which sets the key policy rates in India, to retain the rates this week after the three-day meeting (December 2-4) as rising inflation had made the scope for a…... Read More
RBI Monetary Policy LIVE | Reaction
V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services: Status quo in policy rates and policy stance are on expected lines. The central bank has reiterated that it will use appropriate policy instruments to ensure ample liquidity to support growth. The revision of FY 21 GDP growth rate to -7.5 percent is positive. RBI's projection of GDP growth to be positive for H2 is in line with market's optimism. Emphasising the multi-speed upturn in economy, the central bank has announced the extension of on tap TLTRO to stressed sectors. There is no market moving announcement in the policy, but the overall tone is positive.
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Market LIVE | Sensex hits 45K, Nifty at fresh record highs; RBI keeps rate unchanged
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RBI Monetary Policy LIVE |
RTGS facility to be made 24x7, thus settlement of AMPS, NFS, Rupay and UPI transactions will be allowed all days of the week against earlier five days of the week: Das