Sell Vodafone Idea; target of Rs 6: Motilal Oswal

Motilal Oswal's research report on Vodafone Idea

Vodafone Idea’s (Vi) reported EBITDA declined 1% QoQ (vs.3%/5% QoQ for Bharti India Wireless/RJio), ~1% above our estimates, as lower network opex (+1% QoQ) was offset by higher SG&A costs (+8% QoQ). Operationally, subscriber losses moderated further to a modest 0.5m (vs. - 1.6m in 4Q), while ARPU inched up 0.6% QoQ to INR165 (+13% YoY, in line). Vi continued to lose market share as wireless revenue remained flat QoQ (+6% YoY, in line), compared to ~3% QoQ growth for peers.

Outlook

We cut our FY27-28E revenue and EBITDA estimates by ~4-5% each, driven by higher subscriber declines. We reiterate our SELL rating on Vi with a revised TP of INR6, based on DCF implied ~12.5x Sep’27E EV/EBITDA.