Prabhudas Lilladher has come with its quarterly earning estimates on power sector for March 2012. Power sector experienced relatively lower merchant tariff rates, average rate being Rs3.5/unit (4.6/unit in Q3FY12) despite elections in three states. Capacity addition for January 2012 stood at 865MW (40% achievement), higher by 85% YoY. However, during February 2012, capacity addition stood at 972MW (which was 70% of target). Capacity addition YTD stands at 13332.5MWs which is 75.7% achievement.
As far as January 2012 generation goes, units generated stood at 74bn (flat QoQ and 1.2% YoY growth). However, February saw a MoM de-growth of 4% at 71bn units and growth was 7.5% YoY. All India PLF stood at 72.8% YTD. The short-term contracts comprised 10% of the generation.
On the result front, revenues will be affected on account of non-availability of fuel, backing-off by SEBs and increased costs YoY. Thus, we expect the sheen on the sector to gradually reduce, going forward. Even for hydro power and trading company like PTC, this quarter is not likely to be very good. For Q3FY12E, we expect our Utilities universe to register a YoY growth of 7.7% in its top-line and PAT is expected to de-grow YoY by 10.4%. We are excluding Lanco from our pre-quarterly review as its presently under review.
| Q4FY12E | Q4FY11 | YoY gr. (%) | Q3FY12 | QoQ gr. (%) | |
| NTPC | |||||
| Sales | 148,477 | 155,189 | -4.3 | 153,323 | -3.2 |
| PAT | 25,827 | 27,990 | -7.7 | 19,541 | 32.2 |
| NHPC | |||||
| Sales | 10,837 | 11,381 | -4.8 | 8,820 | 22.9 |
| PAT | 3,874 | 5,000 | -22.5 | 2,594 | 49.3 |
| Tata Power | |||||
| Sales | 64,901 | 50,155 | 29.4 | 66,599 | -2.5 |
| PAT | 4,472 | 6,250 | -28.4 | 4,027 | 11.1 |
| Reliance Infra | |||||
| Sales | 54,890 | 37,979 | 44.5 | 61,287 | -10.4 |
| PAT | 3,174 | 2,759 | 15.1 | 3,979 | -20.2 |
| PTC India | |||||
| Sales | 17,469 | 20,788 | -16 | 13,300 | 31.3 |
| PAT | 80 | 223 | -64.3 | 10 | 696.7 |
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts/broking houses/rating agencies on moneycontrol.com are their own, and not that of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
Discover the latest Business News, Sensex, and Nifty updates. Obtain Personal Finance insights, tax queries, and expert opinions on Moneycontrol or download the Moneycontrol App to stay updated!
