Expect Tata Motors Q4 PAT at Rs 4200 cr: StanChart

India's largest commercial vehicle maker Tata Motors is scheduled to reveal its Q4 numbers on Tuesday. In an interview with CNBC-TV18, Amit Kasat, Director, India Institutional Research, Standard Chartered Securities says, "We are expecting a consolidated profit of Rs 4,200 crore for the company."

However, Kasat feels that there can be surprises on the PAT number, largely because of the currency behaviour during the last quarter of FY12. But, it is expected to have a positive impact on Tata Motors' operating performance, added Kasat. Despite the deteriorating outlook on the Jaguar and Land Rover (JLR) division over the last six months, Kasat expects a 12% growth in this segment during FY13. Below is the edited transcript of the interview on CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video. Q: Your expectations from Tata Motors this quarter? A: For the fourth quarter we are expecting a consolidated profit of Rs 4,200 crore for the company. The margin expectation that we have for the JLR segment in the fourth quarter is 19%, which is 100 basis points lower than what they have reported in Q3 FY12. Q: What are the chances of a surprise on the PAT number? A: Possibly there can be surprises on the PAT number, mainly on account of the currency behavior which has happened in the quarter. The positive impact of that definitely will be seen in the operating performance for the company. Having said this, margins of 20% last quarter and expectations of 19% with a little more discounting and incentive schemes which the company was running in euro may limit the Jaguar and Land Rover (JLR) margins uptick. But, there can be surprises because of the currency behavior in the quarter. Also read: What to expect from Tata Motors' Q4 earnings Q: What do you expect to hear on the currency front? A: Very difficult to take a call on the currency. It's very volatile. Lot of currencies are involved for Tata Motors, basically the euro-pound and dollar-rupee. It's very difficult to predict anything currently on currency behavior on Tata Motors. Q: Do you expect more specific commentary from the management in terms of JLR volume growth and ailing any concerns about a dip there? A: Yes, I think the outlook definitely has deteriorated over the last six months on the JLR. The global environment for the JLR or the premium vehicles is definitely not the same as what we were seeing for the last 9-12 months. There is a slowdown happening in China. The waiting period in the Chinese market is not there right now. Definitely, the outlook will be subdued, according to me. Again in FY12, they have done 314,000 units in the JLR segment. We are expecting a 12% growth in FY13, that is 350,000 units, which translates on an average to 29,000-30,000 units per month. I think the market is also expecting this. If you call that a subdued growth then definitely, it's a subdued growth in terms of JLR numbers. Q: What do you have going in terms of a price and earnings target on this stock right now? A: We have outperformer rating on the company. Our price target remains at Rs 316. We maintain our price target and the rating currently. Going forward, in FY13 the consolidated earnings growth that we are forecasting is close to around 16%. Hence, if there will be any surprises, the stock will track the earning trajectory that the company will have going forward. There are no major surprises on the JLR front in FY13.