Aviation consultancy and research firm CAPA India on Thursday called for a new long-term aviation policy in the backdrop of the aviation landscapes witnessing rapid changes in the post-Covid period.
In a statement on Friday, the firm said the policy should plan for airport capacity that will last for a generation and beyond, must define an international air services strategy in line with India's national interests as well as restructuring of airspace design to provide capacity for up to 8-10x of the current traffic, among others.
The government had in 2016 announced a comprehensive aviation policy to give a flip to the domestic aviation industry. However, the emergence of the pandemic in early 2020 almost grounded the aviation industry globally and changed the entire dynamics.
"CAPA India (has) outlined a roadmap for the formulation of a new civil aviation policy, designed to support a transformational vision for what Indian aviation can aspire to be in 20 years from now," CAPA India said in the statement.
The Indian aviation system, in the just-concluded financial year, handled just less than 200 million airline passengers, as per the firm.
"The Ministry of Civil Aviation has been making serious and genuine efforts to transform the sector. But achieving the industry's true long-term potential will require a new policy framework," it said. CAPA India forecasts that the country may need to be able to handle over 1.3 billion passengers, with a commercial fleet of close to 4,000 aircraft within 20 years if an aspirational and transformational path is pursued.
"This is an unconstrained forecast, but it would represent a market around 20 per cent larger than the United States was before COVID," it said.
Indian aviation is at a critical inflection point. The opportunities could have positive implications for generations to come. India has to choose whether it wishes to pursue a transformative, aspirational vision or more conservative, linear growth, said Kapil Kaul, Chief Executive Officer and Director at CAPA India.
Achieving such a dramatic ramp-up in scale will require a tremendous effort across the aviation eco-system with each and every element of the industry required to play their part to realise this opportunity which, if happens by FY2043, could make Indian aviation a USD 1 trillion annual business, taking into account direct, indirect, induced and catalytic impacts, as per CAPA India.
It also said that even under a more conservative, linear growth scenario, India would still likely reach a market size similar to China pre-COVID.
According to CAPA India, the new aviation policy should deliver airline viability and growth by design and the carriers must be provided with a level playing field by dismantling the negative fiscal regime, and providing infrastructure ahead of time.
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