On my expectations for Union Budget 2024-25, I wrote an article (January 17, 2024) stating that the Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman could focus on the four castes mentioned by the Prime Minister: Poor, Youth, Farmers and Women. The four castes were made an acronym GYAN (Knowledge in English): Gareeb (Poor), Yuva (Youth), Annadata (Farmers) and Naari (Women). A few days later, the FM did suggest that the speech will focus on the four castes.
On the budget day today, the FM did make the four castes as the core theme of her budget. She said:
“As our Prime Minister firmly believes, we need to focus on four major castes. They are, ‘Garib’ (Poor), ‘Mahilayen’ (Women), ‘Yuva’ (Youth) and ‘Annadata’ (Farmer). Their needs, their aspirations, and their welfare are our highest priority. The country progresses, when they progress. All four require and receive government support in their quest to better their lives. Their empowerment and well-being will drive the country forward.”
Given how closely the expectations article has matched the FM’s core theme in the speech, let us review the government policies on the four castes and the expectations set in the earlier article.
Gareeb (Poor)
The FM pointed to three schemes under the first category of poor: Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT), PM-SVAnidhi scheme, PM-Janman scheme and PM-Vishwakarma Scheme. Under DBT, the government has transferred Rs 34 lakh crore using PM Jan-Dhan Accounts. PM-SVANIdhi for street vendors has assisted 78 lakh street vendors. PM-JANMAN and PM-Vishwakarma are for helping vulnerable tribal groups and artisans/
craftspeople respectively. The FM did not give any data for the two schemes.
The FM further added that 25 crore people have got freedom based on the multi-dimensional poverty measure. In the earlier piece, I had added how the Great India Poverty Debate has once again cracked open as economists have disputed whether poverty has increased or decreased in the country. Historically, poverty has been tracked by using the consumption expenditure survey which was last done in 2011-12. The Multidimensional Poverty Index looks at multiple indicators and economists have been debating its efficacy in measuring poverty vociferously the pink pages.
If indeed poverty has declined as suggested by the FM, why not release data based on consumption surveys? It is also ironical that despite so many people getting freedom from poverty, the government continues to provide free ration to 80 crore people, a figure quoted by FM herself.
Yuva (Youth)
Under Yuva, the FM mentions plethora of schemes and policies: New Education Policy, PM Schools for Rising India, Skills India Mission, PM Mudra Yojana, Start Up India and so on. The main objective of these varied schemes is building human capital and technological knowhow in the country. The economics textbooks mention the how both human capital and technology are vital ingredients for building productivity of the nation.
While it is fine to see objectives, we also have to focus on outcomes as FM herself stresses in the speech. The recently released Annual Survey of Education Report (ASER) reveals how a large percentage of students in the age group 14-18 years can neither read basic text nor solve basic math problems. Even post-school, the number of student suicides is really depressing as students struggle to get into colleges.
Post-college, youth unemployment is a major concern. The government’s Periodic Labor Force Survey (PLFS) suggests youth unemployment has declined from 18 percent in 2017-18 to 10 percent in 2022-23. If the numbers have indeed declined, what explains the rising demand for quotas, protests for government jobs etc.? CMIE’s data shows youth unemployment at 44 percent. There are also reports that students from top engineering and management colleges are unable to get jobs.
The issue of youth clearly deserves more attention on the outcomes and not just the schemes.
Annadata (Farmer)
On farmers, the FM notes that the government is providing assistance to farmers under the PM-KISAN SAMMAN Yojana and PM Fasal Bima Yojana. Under the first scheme, 11.8 crore farmers have been covered and under the second scheme, the figure is 4 crores. Further, Electronic National Agriculture Market has integrated 1361 mandis and provided services to 1.8 crore farmers with a trading volume of 3 lakh crore.
Again it is not about schemes but about the outcomes. In the earlier article, I had mentioned that in 2016-17 Budget Speech the government had promised to double farmers’ income by 2022. The data last reported by the government showed that the average monthly income per agricultural household increased by 59 percent from Rs 6,426 in 2012-13 and Rs 10,218 in 2018-19. One was hoping that the FM updated the country on the status of the laudable goal as the goal was to be achieved two years ago. However, the FM did not make any mention of the policy.
Naari (Women)
Finally the policies on women. The FM pointed out that the government has empowered women through entrepreneurship, ease of living, and giving them dignity. The government has provided Mudra Yojana loans to women entrepreneurs. Further, the enrolment of females in higher education and STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) courses has increased leading to increasing participation of women in the workforce. The government has also provided 70 percent under PM Awas Yojana in rural areas to women as sole or joint owners to enhance their dignity.
On this point, I will reiterate what I said in the earlier article: we have to think beyond welfare programmes. Last year, we saw shocking incidents which question the dignity claim made by the FM. There has been violence against women in Manipur, award winning women wrestlers filed harassment cases, and the shocking developments in the Bilkis Bano case. None of these incidents appear to have been treated by the government with the seriousness they deserve. We have women in important political positions including the President and Finance Minister herself, but they seem to have chosen not to stand against the horrendous incidents against women.
Amol Agrawal teaches at Ahmedabad University, and is the author of 'History of Private Banking in South Canara district (1906-69)’. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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